Kentucky Derby prep: Florida Derby odds and analysis

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby is the final of three races on the Gulfstream Park road to the Kentucky Derby 2025. The signature race offers 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers.

A field of 10 was drawn for the 1 1/8-mile race, and five of the 3-year-olds already ran on the Derby trail. Together they earned 106 Derby points, with individual totals ranging from 0 to 60. Five of the horses have only a maiden victory in their records. Sovereignty is the only winner on the Derby trail, with victories in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream on March 1.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Florida Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 14 of 14, with post time set for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

1. Neoequos, 10-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas – 6: 2-2-1 - $179,050. Neoequos lost his rider in his debut at Gulfstream but broke his maiden in his next start during the summer and finished in the top three in the rest of his starts. While pressing the pace, he was second in a pair of Florida Stallion Series stakes to complete his juvenile campaign. Neoequos began this year with an allowance score against Florida-breds. He then moved to the Kentucky Derby trail, where he set the pace and finished third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and earned 15 Derby points. Use underneath.

2. Cool Intentions, 20-1. Authentic – Jorge Delgado / Javier Castellano – 4: 2-1-0 - $62,810. Cool Intentions won twice at Gulfstream as a 2-year-old since he began racing in October, with a maiden score and an allowance victory while racing from behind. He has been away since he finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man on Jan. 4. Toss.

3. Smoken Boy, 30-1. Catholic Boy – Cheryl Winebaugh / Edgar Perez – 5: 2-1-0 - $47,260. Smoken Boy began his career with three starts at Camarero in Puerto Rico. There he broke his maiden and won a Grade 1 by a combined 16 lengths. Smoken Boy changed trainers, showed up on the Derby trail and was a distant eighth in the Sam F. Davis. Last month he was claimed for $75,000 out of an optional-claiming allowance race at Gulfstream, where he finished sixth. Toss.

4. Disruptor, 4-1. Gun Runner – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 1-0-1 - $49,000. Disruptor was a $1.15 million Keeneland yearling purchase by a partnership led by Repole Stable. He debuted in January at Gulfstream as a heavy favorite, set the pace and finished third going seven furlongs. The son of Gun Runner won his next start by more than nine lengths on March 1, again as an odds-on choice. He will try two turns for the first time in a Grade 1 on the Derby trail. Hard to ignore.

5. Indecisiveness, 30-1. Decisive Moment – Ruben Sierra / Jorge Ruiz – 4: 1-0-1 - $62,668. Indecisiveness won his first start at Gulfstream in November and then finished far back in fourth in the Juvenile Sprint for Florida-breds. This year he was fourth and third in allowances at the Florida track. Toss.

6. Jimmy’s Daily, 12-1. Vekoma – Brian Lynch / Joel Rosario – 4: 1-1-0 - $71,770. Jimmy’s Dailys gets a rider change to Joel Rosario after Irad Ortiz opted to ride Disruptor. He broke his maiden in his third start, which was in Disruptor's first race. Going two turns in February, the son of Vekoma was second in an allowance against Indecisiveness. Live long shot.

7. Enterdadragon, 30-1. Outwork– Jose D’Angelo / Dylan Davis – 9: 2-1-1 - $103,144. Enterdadragon is the most experienced horse in the field. Although only one of his starts was on the dirt, he ran second last month in a one-mile stakes on the turf at Gulfstream. Seven of his nine races were on the grass, where he won a maiden and an allowance. Toss.

8. Madaket Road , 7-2. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 1-2-1 - $280,000. Madaket Road shipped from California for Bob Baffert, where he ran second in his debut in the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar in November. The $650,000 Saratoga yearling purchase got a maiden win in his second start. Madaket Road was third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and second in the Rebel (G2) and earned 31 Derby points. Blinkers come off. Win contender.

9. Tappan Street, 5-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 2: 1-1-0 - $73,000. Tappen Street was bought for $1 million as a Saratoga yearling. He won his debut at Gulfstream in the final days of 2024 at 2-1 in a field of 12. Brad Cox moved him onto the Derby trail, where he had the lead in the Holy Bull (G3) and finished second to earn 10 Derby points. Win contender.

10. Sovereignty, 8-5. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Manny Franco – 4: 2-1-0 - $388,800. Sovereignty is the leading money winner in the field and the one to beat. The son of Gun Runner had a pair of late-running victories on the Derby trail in the Street Sense (G3) as a 2-year-old and then in the Fountain of Youth, earning a total of 60 Derby points. Manny Franco gets the mount since regular rider Junior Alvarado injured his shoulder and could be out for three weeks. The one to beat.

Summary: Three of the top contenders in the Florida Derby, Madaket Road, Tappen Street and Sovereignty, will break from the three outside post positions.

A fast pace is expected with Neoequos, Disruptor and Madaket Road leading the way.

Madaket Road represents Bob Baffert and the large partnership led by SF Racing that had so many quality 3-year-olds in recent years. He will have to stretch out to nine furlongs after fading in both of his starts on the Derby trail.

Tappan Street has only two starts, with a maiden win and a second in the Holy Bull, and is one of three high-priced yearling purchases.

Sovereignty already has a spot in the Kentucky Derby with his 60 points, won the Fountain of Youth on March 1 and will be a heavy favorite in the Florida Derby. That leaves the betting public to consider that Bill Mott does not need Sovereignty to be at peak form five weeks before the first Saturday in May. He is still the horse to beat.

Tappan Street will be a solid third choice in the betting behind Sovereignty and Madaket Road. Thus, he will be the top choice.