Kentucky Derby prep: Arkansas Derby odds and analysis
Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby is the final of four races on the Oaklawn road to the Kentucky Derby 2025. The signature race at the Arkansas track offers 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers.
A field of nine was drawn for the 1 1/8-mile race, and six of the 3-year-olds already ran on the Derby trail. Together they earned 136 Derby points, with individual totals ranging from 0 to 70. Coal Battle is a three-time winner on the Derby trail, with victories in the Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones and Rebel (G2). Speed King won the Southwest (G3) in January.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Arkansas Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 13 of 14, with post time set for 7:48 p.m. EDT.
1. Brereton’s Baytown, 30-1. Upstart – Paul McEntee / Marshall Mendez – 10: 2-0-0 - $85,773. Brereton’s Baytown is the most experienced horse in the field with his 10 starts, beginning at Saratoga in June in the Tremont. He needed seven tries to break his maiden, which happened at Charles Town in December. The son of Upstart won a $40,000 claimer at Laurel Park and then was a non-threatening eighth in the Rebel (G2). Toss.
2. First Division, 20-1. Omaha Beach – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 3: 1-1-1 - $79,800. First Division made three starts in lucrative races at Oaklawn. The Indiana-bred won a maiden optional claimer in his debut and then was third and second in first-level allowances in six-horse fields. Toss.
3. Publisher, 6-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Flavien Prat – 6: M-1-3 - $137,756. Publisher is still a maiden after four maiden special weights and a pair of races on the Kentucky Derby trail, where he finished sixth in Southwest (G3) and fourth in the Rebel (G2) and picked up 10 Derby points. Blinkers go on. Toss.
4. Bestfriend Rocket, 20-1. Curlin – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez – 6: 3-0-1 - $142,450. Bestfriend Rocket had three trainers since starting his career at Saratoga on the turf for Bill Mott. He moved to Laurel with Brittany Russell and got a maiden win in October and an allowance victory to end his juvenile campaign. Racing for D. Wayne Lukas, he won an allowance at Oaklawn in early March. Toss.
5. Speed King, 15-1. Volatile – Ron Moquett / Rafael Bejarano – 4: 2-1-0 - $700,250. Speed King won at first asking in a maiden at Churchill Downs against a field of 12 at 22-1. He moved onto the Derby trail and set the pace before he finished second behind Coal Battle in the Springboard Mile. Speed King won the Southwest before coming up empty in a 10th-place finish in the Rebel. He has accumulated 25 Derby points. Live long shot.
6. Sandman, 3-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz – 7: 2-1-2 - $444,595. Sandman sold for $1.2 million as an Ocala March 2-year-old. He debuted at Churchill in June and won for the first time at Saratoga. From there he moved to the Derby trail and ran fifth in the Iroquois (G3), third in the Street Sense (G3), second in the Southwest and third in the Rebel, getting 29 Derby points. His second victory was in an Oaklawn allowance in the middle of those four Derby preps. Use underneath.
7. Monet’s Magic, 20-1. Good Magic – Ben Colebrook / Luan Machado – 7: 2-0-1 - $206,139. Monet’s Magic needed five races to break his maiden, which he did at Churchill in November. He won an allowance at Oaklawn to end 2024. On the Derby trail the son of Good Magic was fifth in the Southwest and picked up 2 Derby points. Toss.
8. Coal Battle , 7-2. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas – 7: 5-0-0 - $1,053,875. Coal Battle enters the Arkansas Derby with four stakes victories in a row, and the last three were on the road to the Kentucky Derby. As a 2-year-old the son of Coal Front took the Springboard Mile and this year added the Smarty Jones and the Rebel to wrap up a spot in the field of the run for the roses with 70 Derby points. He has won on the front end but usually comes from behind. Top choice.
9. Cornucopian, 7-5. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 1: 1-0-0 - $66,000. Cornucopian was a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase who was a speedy winner of his only start. Bob Baffert sent him to Oaklawn, where he won by almost six lengths as the odds-on favorite in a six-furlong field of 10. Win contender.
Summary: Cornucopian was a fast and facile winner of his only start for Bob Baffert, and the pace projector says he can get to the lead again. In the Arkansas Derby, he will have to go two turns for the first time at the distance of nine furlongs and do it in a Grade 1 on the Kentucky Derby trail as a heavy favorite.
Coal Battle has a four-race winning streak, which includes three Derby points races. With 70 points he has a spot in the big race locked up already. He has shown versatility and determination on the Derby trail, which should serve him well again. Coal Battle has 7-2 odds on the morning line, and that is too attractive to pass up. Coal Battle is the top choice in the Arkansas Derby.