Breeders’ Cup 2025: Play these 4 long shots at Del Mar
The 2024 Breeders' Cup featured three winners at odds of 15-1 or higher, a trend that is likely to continue in 2025. With so many talented horses and full fields, good horses get lost in the shuffle and value can be found in almost any of the 14 races. The challenge is picking the correct long shots.
The first step in this process is zeroing in on the races in which the favorites look vulnerable. It might be tough to get a price in this year's Juvenile, Distaff or Dirt Mile, but races such as the Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, Sprint and Turf Sprint look ripe for an upset. Below I analyze four horses in these races at odds of 15-1 who not only will outrun their odds, but who have a legitimate chance of pulling off an upset.
Super Corredora, 15-1, Juvenile Fillies. Explora or Bottle of Rouge certainly could win this race, but they are not head and shoulders above the rest of this field. That opens the door for a filly with upside to pull off an upset with another step forward. It is a big ask for a maiden winner to run in the Breeders' Cup, but there is a chance that Super Corredora is a potential star in an ordinary race. It would not be worth taking a chance on such an inexperienced runner at 4-1, but at 15-1, it is certainly worth a swing. After two average sprint tries, she crushed maidens by over eight lengths in her first route attempt. As a daughter of Gun Runner it was no surprise to see her make giant strides going two turns. She was visually impressive in that race and her 78 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form puts her squarely in the mix with contenders at much shorter odds.
North Coast, 30-1, Juvenile Turf. Gstaad is a top-class colt, but he will have his work cut out for him from post 14 as he tries a route for the first time. If the favorite falters, then this race is very wide open and is likely to produce the biggest price of the day. Joseph O’Brien’s colt might not have the class of some of the top choices, but he has been primed for this race. He should be the most prepared of any of the Europeans for his American debut as he already has two starts and a win around left-handed turns and has experience running a mile when finishing second in July. He was caught on a yielding turf course last time. If one forgives that effort, this colt fits with his European counterparts at a much better price.
Bear River, 20-1, Turf Sprint. Like many Keith Desormeaux runners, it took awhile for him to get going, but he enters the Breeders' Cup in razor-sharp form. He won his last two races and earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in his latest start at Kentucky Downs, the highest last-out figure in the field. He easily handled Khaadem in that race, and Khaadem returned to win the Woodford Stakes (G2). Despite that effort, Bear River is double the price of Khaadem. He has shown the stamina to win at six furlongs and has the tactical speed to sit a good trip at five furlongs. He is drawn well and will finish right in the mix in a wide-open race.
Banishing, 15-1, Sprint. This gelding has found success routing, but he has always been at his best sprinting. He should have plenty of fitness for the Sprint while cutting back to six furlongs, a distance he is perfect at in two starts. A closer look at his form will show five wins in his last six sprint tries. His best sprint effort was actually the sole time he lost during that span. He finished in a dead heat for second, losing by a neck in the best sprint race of the year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Mindframe won that race, Nysos finished a co-second, Book'em Danno finished fourth, and Mulllikin wound up fifth. He will have plenty of pace to run at in this race and will be flying late for a significant piece at a big price.