Kentucky Derby 2023: Ranking the field 1st to last

The best betting race in America is less than a week away. With post positions drawn, it is time to take a deeper look into the entire Kentucky Derby 2023 field to try to find the hidden gems who will unlock large payouts.

At least one horse at odds of 25-1 or higher has finished in the top three in the Kentucky Derby in five of the last six years. When Justify led a fairly chalky trifecta in 2018, Instilled Regard completed the superfecta at almost 90-1.

History has shown that even if a favorite wins, finding the right horses for your exotic wagers can lead to a full wallet. By ranking the field from first to last below, we can see who can contend for a piece and who should be tossed from all tickets. 

1) No. 9 Skinner, 20-1: He exits the strongest Kentucky Derby prep, in my opinion, finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). And in typically John Shirreffs fashion, he continues to improve with added distance and experience. He just missed running down Practical Move and Mandarin Hero last time and hung a bit after making an early wide move. The distance should be in his wheelhouse, and I like the switch to jockey Juan Hernandez. It is not easy for a horse with his style to save ground, but if Hernandez is able to do so, he will mow everyone down late to win the Kentucky Derby. The price is big enough to take that chance.

2) No. 15 Forte, 3-1: The logical favorite has very few red flags other than the potential price. He has been the head of the division for the last six months and appears as though he will be able to handle the distance as well as anyone in this field. Some have been critical of his declining speed figures, but I do not feel he is regressing. His 98 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form in the Fountain of Youth (G2) when in a hand ride was a very strong number, and one could argue that he was not 100 percent cranked up in the Florida Derby (G1) when he did not need the points to get into the field. He still earned a respectable 95 Beyer Speed Figure from a tough post. He is the most likely runner to finish in the exacta in the field. 

3) No. 10 Practical Move, 10-1: He is likely to be the leader turning for home and has as much talent as anyone in this race. There are questions about his ability to handle the distance, but he is a tough, improving horse who will hang in there for as long as possible. He might get run down late, but do not discount the chances of him picking up a large piece of things.

4) No. 8 Mage, 15-1: Like Practical Move, his talent is undeniable and he may possess the most upside of any runner in this field. He was the only horse other than Forte taking serious money in the Florida Derby and put forth a fantastic effort after breaking slowly and making an early wide move. He also encountered a rough trip in the Fountain of Youth. Based on ability and his strong tactical speed, he can win at a good price, and I do not blame anyone for taking that chance. The only worry is that his lack of seasoning could get the best of him in the lane.

5) No. 5 Tapit Trice, 5-1: This colt continues to get better as he figures things out. He sustained a long, wide run in the Blue Grass (G1) to run down Verifying, who had a perfect trip that day. I prefer the Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby as prep races to this year's Blue Grass, but he will keep grinding away in the lane and will pass plenty of horses late.

6) No. 14 Angel of Empire, 8-1: Brad Cox has expressed that this colt's rapid progression has surprised him after starting out in Indiana. Flavien Prat chooses to ride him over Kingsbarns, and his fluid and athletic stride should help him work out a good trip. It is hard to find fault with him other than the level of competition that he has faced. 

7) No. 17 Derma Sotogake, 10-1: The biggest wildcard in this year's Kentucky Derby will be a popular choice thanks to Japan's continued dominance on the world stage. He has the speed to sit a good trip and showed he can handle the distance in a dominant UAE Derby (G2) score. UAE Derby runners are 0-for-18 historically in the Kentucky Derby, and none has even reached the top four. Also, no horse has ever won from post 17. He might just be good enough to buck these trends. 

8) No. 18 Rocket Can, 30-1: His form has been a notch below the top contenders, but the addition of blinkers and his subsequent strong works for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott make him an interesting long shot for exotic consideration. He could get a piece at a big price if the equipment change sparks expected improvement. 

9) No. 6 Kingsbarns, 12-1: Like Mage, he is trying to become only the second horse since Apollo to win the Kentucky Derby after not running as a 2-year-old. He has upside and tactical speed to take another step forward, but the level of competition gets much tougher for this runner who sat on an easy lead in the Louisiana Derby (G2). 

10) No. 7 Reincarnate, 50-1: He could wind up being the early pacesetter in the Kentucky Derby, which makes him at least somewhat interesting at too big of a price with John Velazquez aboard. He is likely to be pressured by Derma Sotogake, but even if he were to get an easy lead, it is hard to envision him holding off all the main contenders.

11) No. 2 Verifying, 15-1: This is a well-bred colt who always has had promise. He has been a bit inconsistent and is coming off his best race yet in the Blue Grass. That grueling effort might take some starch out of him. He had a perfect trip and still could not fend off Tapit Trice. From an inside draw he might not be able to work out the same type of trip, and he has more than Tapit Trice to worry about on Saturday. 

12) No. 4 Confidence Game, 20-1: He has shown promise, but the 70-day layoff heading into the Kentucky Derby is a big concern as this has not been a recipe for success. He would move up over a wet track, but clear skies appear likely at this point on Saturday. 

13) No. 3 Two Phil's, 12-1: His win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) was powerful, and a repeat of that effort would put him right in the mix. Many wonder where that race came from for him. The most likely answer is the switch to the Tapeta surface as his prior dirt form was nothing more than average compared with many of these runners. It is possible that he dramatically improved, but it is far more likely that the surface moved him up and there are other runners at this price point who intrigue more.

14) No. 1 Hit Show, 30-1: His figures are on the slower side, and the rail draw does him no favor. He was disappointing in the weak Wood Memorial (G2) when losing to a 59-1 shot and narrowly defeating a maiden. Despite his good breeding and strong connections, he would be a surprise. 

15) No. 11 Disarm, 50-1: He has been up against the race flow in a couple of his starts, but I was expecting more out of him last time out in the Lexington (G3). He will need to step things up to give Steve Asmussen his first Kentucky Derby victory. 

16) No. 13 Sun Thunder, 30-1: He is a deep closer who often fails to make up ground in the lane. That is not a recipe for success in a large field, and he will be up against it while trying to turn the tables on a large number of horses in this race who already defeated him in recent starts. 

17) No. 20 Continuar, 50-1: This is a tough post draw for the Japan runner who has shown that he is not quite on the same level as Derma Sotogake. Like Derma Sotogake, he does not have history on his side. He would be a surprise, especially considering his sire is sprint champion Drefong. 

18) No. 16 Raise Cain, 50-1: His win in the Gotham (G3) was aided by a strong pace, a soft field and a muddy track. Aside from that race, he has yet to put forth an effort that would make him a serious contender. 

19) No. 12 Jace's Road, 50-1: He has shown an unwillingness to pass horses and does not appear quite fast enough to make the lead. He sat a perfect trip in the Louisiana Derby when stalking a slow pace and still came up empty late. 

20) No. 19 Lord Miles, 30-1: His Wood Memorial victory was by far his best career effort. Even if he is able to repeat his New York shocker, he is not fast enough to contend. The Wood Memorial has been a very poor prep in recent years, and this year looks to be no exception.