2023 Breeders' Cup Sprint: Analyzing the expected pace

Jackie's Warrior was heavily favored in each of the last two Breeders' Cup Sprints, but contested pace scenarios ultimately led to subpar efforts as Aloha West and Elite Power came charging from the back of the pack. Drefong is the only winner of the Breeders' Cup Sprint in the last 10 years to do so going wire to wire.

There is not an early speed horse in this year's edition of the Sprint with the same credentials as Jackie's Warrior or Drefong, but this year's front-runners might find less overall pressure in the early stages than there has been in recent years. Below I analyze the expected pace of the 2023 Breeders Cup Sprint.

Speed

Speed Boat Beach. Bob Baffert's lightly raced 3-year-old is the best bet to be the early leader in this race. He has 44-second-flat speed, and his best chance of winning is to run the others off their feet early and try to hold off the closers.

Dr. Schivel. He almost won this race in 2021 and is looking for revenge after that heartbreaker. He has more versatility than Speed Boat Beach and does not need to be right on the pace. But without much other confirmed speed, he will press Baffert's front-runner and not let him out of his sight. Expect a ride similar to the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, where he was side by side with Speed Boat Beach before getting the best of him late.

Pressers

Gunite. This high-quality colt is another who has shown good versatility. He was able to defeat Elite Power after walking on the lead in the Forego (G1). He likely will not be able to make the lead in this spot, but hewill be close to the pace and once again will get the first jump on his rival.

Hoist the Gold. He typically is more of a closer, but he was aggressively ridden near the pace in the Phoenix (G2) last out, and it resulted in a win. His last two victories have come when he is close to the leaders early, so it is fair to expect him to be in the early mix in this spot.

Mid-pack

The Chosen Vron. This cool Cal-bred has won eight in a row and has proven he can sit a variety of trips to win. Expect him to tuck in right behind the top four early while trying to make his move just before Elite Power unleashes his closing kick.

Elite Power. The defending champ is tough as nails, and a slow pace typically is the only thing that gets him beat. Irad Ortiz Jr. will not let him fall too far back early, but they are not going to totally change his style based on the projected pace. He was seventh of 11 early on last year and should be about sixth in the early stages this year.

Nakatomi. He has come from way out of it in the past but recently has done a better job of staying in touch with the field early. Look for him be right behind Elite Power early and trying to follow his closing move late.

Closers

American Theorem. He used to show more early interest, but his speed and form seem to have dulled in the last year. Based on his recent efforts, he likely will attempt to come from far out of it.

Three Technique. This runner is a true closer and is likely to be the early trailer. He will sit back and make one run, hoping for the speed to fold in front of him.

After examining the pace, this year's Sprint looks like it has an opportunity to be fairly run, giving each runner a chance if they are good enough.

There is not an abundance of speed compared to previous editions, which gives Speed Boat Beach, Dr. Schivel and Gunite a fair chance to win near the front end.

On the flip side, there is just enough early competition to give Elite Power and The Chosen Vron a fighting chance if they bring their best effort. Elite Power has been able to run down Gunite in slower pace scenarios, and this early pace will certainly be faster than the Forego (G1) in which he could not get to the leader.

Post positions could change the complexion a bit, but it would be surprising if the jockeys aboard Dr. Schivel and Gunite let Speed Boat Beach get loose early. The 2023 Breeders' Cup Sprint should be an honest, but not blazing pace.