Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 2023: Ranking from 1st to last

A full field of international stars should make for an intriguing edition of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. With runners based in Ireland, Britain, Japan, Canada and America, there are plenty of storylines to follow Saturday at Santa Anita.

Chad Brown had a stranglehold on this race from 2012 to 2018, winning it four times during this span. He has been shut out since as foreign shippers have captured the last four runnings. Will Brown get back to his winning ways with In Italian or McKulick, or will fresh faces continue their recent dominance?

Here is my analysis and ranking of the entire pre-entered field for the Filly & Mare Turf from first to last.

1. Warm Heart. This filly has everything one should look for in a Europe shipper. She loves a firm turf, handles the distance, thrives on left-handed turns and has an abundance of class and consistency. Aidan O’Brien’s star never has been better as she looks to give her trainer his second consecutive win in this race.

2. Inspiral. Not only is she the best horse in this race, but she may be the most talented of the entire Breeders’ Cup. The star Europe shipper is a five-time Group 1 winner and has defeated males on multiple occasions. A repeat of her last two efforts may crush this field, but there is one huge looming question. Can she handle the distance? All her best work has come at one mile, and that extra quarter is a big step up in trip. She is a bit of a wild card as she could win easily or completely run off the board. She still should be included on all tickets based on class alone.

3. Lindy. She ran a pair of competitive seconds to Blue Rose Cen, the top 3-year-old filly in all of France, and her form has continued to be solid since coming to America. She was flying late at 1 1/8 miles last time out and should thrive with the added distance. She will outrun her odds and has a fighting chance to pull off a mild upset. 

4. In Italian. Brown’s speedy mare does not know how to run a bad race and never has finished out of the money. She has been defeated by a pair of stablemates when heavily favored in her last two starts. Is she starting to lose a step, or did Brown just want to make sure two of his other well-bred fillies would collect their first Grade 1 wins? That answer will help determine her chances, but regardless, this distance is pushing her limitations. 

5. Lumiere Rock. The 3-year-old Ireland import has improved steadily throughout the year. She was no match for Warm Heart when they met in June, but the gap between the two fillies appears to have narrowed a bit since.

6. Fev Rover. Mark Casse’s mare is in great form and should thrive at this distance. She may find the waters too deep on the win end, but she will likely give a good account of herself. 

7. Didia. It is hard to find fault with her form as she has won 9 of 11 lifetime starts on the turf. She has yet to face competition of this level but will be among those fighting for a piece.

8. Moira. The 2022 Queen’s Plate winner in Canada has been a bit disappointing this year with only one victory in five tries. She has the ability to pull off a surprise but was in better form last year when she finished fifth in this race.

9. McKulick. The farther the better for this filly, and this distance actually may be a little short for her. She is a very nice filly but has proven to be a step behind the best of the division. 

10. With the Moonlight. Leaving out a Charlie Appleby runner is rarely a good idea, but this filly has had multiple tries in America, winning only 1 of 5. She already has lost to three runners pre-entered in here.

11. Win Marilyn. The Japan import is dangerous on her best day. Her win in December against males in the Hong Kong Vase (G1) stamped her as a main contender, but what happened since? The talented mare is tough to trust off three consecutive poor efforts. 

12. State Occasion. This mare is coming off of a career-best effort but has yet to win an important race in Europe and is a notch below the top flight of runners shipping over.

13. Closing Remarks. She is an honest mare but has been facing soft local competition. According to Daily Racing Form, she has not topped 88 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale in four straight races and would need to take a giant leap to contend.