2022 Kentucky Derby trail: Risen Star odds, picks, free PPs
Win and you’re in season for the 2022 Kentucky Derby starts Saturday.
Ten 3-year-olds are lined up to contest the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes. Post time from Fair Grounds is 6:58 p.m. EST, with TVG to broadcast a 1 1/8-mile event that caps a card featuring four graded stakes.
The Risen Star is the first Road to the Kentucky Derby prep awarding points toward the Derby on a 50-20-10-5 basis. Fifty points has been enough to make the Derby field each year since Churchill Downs instituted the current system in 2013.
Because the Risen Star is the first race of 2022 that is, for all practical purposes, a Kentucky Derby qualifier, it has attracted a deep field. Four horses in the top 10 of the current Derby standings, Smile Happy (7-2), Epicenter (4-1), Pappacap (4-1) and Slow Down Andy (9-2), are entered.
Smile Happy closed Sunday at 8-1 in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. That made the Runhappy colt the shortest-priced individual betting interest in the pool, just as he was in Pools 1 and 2.
Kenny McPeek trains Smile Happy, who will have jockey Corey Lanerie up in the Risen Star. His 2-for-2 record includes a 3¼-length win Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), a race which also included eventual Derby trail winners Classic Causeway and White Abarrio.
Epicenter for trainer Steve Asmussen and the Mark Casse-trained Pappacap are familiar names from Fair Grounds’ series of Derby preps. Epicenter won the Gun Runner Stakes in December before finishing as runner-up Jan. 22 in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), while Pappacap crossed third in the Lecomte.
Slow Down Andy ships in from Southern California for trainer Doug O’Neill. He has won two of his three lifetime starts, including a last-out Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory Dec. 11.
Zandon (9-2) arrives from trainer Chad Brown’s winter base in South Florida to make the first start of his 3-year-old season. On Dec. 4 at Aqueduct, he was the Remsen Stakes (G2) runner-up to Mo Donegal – a result that stood following a stewards’ inquiry into the stretch run.
The Risen Star follows the Gun Runner and the Lecomte as the third of Fair Grounds’ quartet of points-paying Kentucky Derby qualifiers. The track hosts its marquee event, the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2, 100-40-20-10) on March 26.
2021 Risen Star hero Mandaloun finished second less than three months later in the Kentucky Derby and is in line to be promoted to the Derby win if Kentucky stewards disqualify the late Medina Spirit. Country House (2019) and War Emblem (2002) both competed in this race before winning on the first Saturday in May.
Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Risen Star Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:
1. Pappacap (Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione), 4-1
2. Russian Tank (Gennadi Dorochenko, Jose Vega), 50-1
3. Trafalgar (Al Stall Jr., Colby Hernandez), 10-1
4. Tawny Port (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 12-1
5. Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario), 4-1
6. Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez), 10-1
7. Zandon (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz), 9-2
8. Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie), 7-2
9. Bodock (Brad Cox, Marcelino Pedroza Jr.), 10-1
10. Slow Down Andy (Doug O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez), 9-2
TimeformUS’ pace projections show Epicenter going out to an early lead under jockey Joel Rosario and setting a fast pace. Favorite Smile Happy is projected to attempt a rally from the rear of the field.
For more information on both the Risen Star and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page.
Road to the Kentucky Derby top 10
1. Classic Causeway, 16
2. Pappacap, 14
3. Epicenter, 14
4. White Abarrio, 12
5. Mo Donegal, 10
6. Rattle N Roll, 10
7. Jack Christopher, 10
8. Make It Big, 10
9. Smile Happy, 10
10. Slow Down Andy, 10
Related: 8 trainers have most early Kentucky Derby hopefuls | Which sires have the most Kentucky Derby contenders? |
Ky. Derby pedigrees: Classic Causeway can go the distance
Risen Star links
Reinier Macatangay offers four reasons why Slow Down Andy may offer value to bettors Saturday in the Risen Star.
In Laurie Ross’ Risen Star analysis, she asks if Smile Happy is another Gun Runner.
Looking for a value play in the Risen Star? This week’s Super Screener identifies a top board hitter, a top value choice, and a live long shot.
What types of runners does the Fair Grounds surface favor? Ed DeRosa examined five years of 1 1/8-mile dirt races at the New Orleans track to search for a pattern.
Ron Flatter details recent history of the Risen Star Stakes and running styles of its victors.
This week on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, Fair Grounds TV analyst Kevin Kilroy and Epicenter’s assistant trainer Scott Blasi preview the Risen Star Stakes, and Mark Midland handicaps a weekend Pick 4.
On this week’s edition of HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse make Risen Star and Rachel Alexandra picks.
Other Saturday stakes
Here is a look at other graded stakes taking place Saturday across the U.S. All post times are EST, and races can be seen on TVG.
Related: 4 superfecta keys Saturday at Fair Grounds |
Horses to Watch: Derby contenders and more at Fair Grounds | Saturday plays: Betting the Risen Star card at Fair Grounds
4:14 p.m. – $250,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes (G3), 4-and-up fillies and mares, seven furlongs, Laurel Park
Glass Ceiling (7-5) looks to break through in graded company off the strength of back-to-back Aqueduct wins, including a Jan. 23 allowance race. Charlton Baker trains the 5-year-old Constitution mare, who will have jockey Dylan Davis up. Michael Trombetta trains Jakarta (3-1), who was third Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park in the Inside Information Stakes (G2). Kaylasaurus (6-1) was second Jan. 29 in Laurel’s What A Summer Stakes for trainer Timothy Kreiser.
4:45 p.m. – $250,000 General George Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, seven furlongs, Laurel Park
Cordmaker (7-5), eighth in the 2019 General George, returns as morning-line favorite for the race’s 2022 edition. Trainer Rodney Jenkins will give a leg up to jockey Victor Carrasco on the 7-year-old Curlin gelding, whose current three-race winning streak includes a local Jennings Stakes score Jan. 29. Norman Cash trains Sir Alfred James (3-1), who wheels back seven days after running ninth Feb. 12 at Turfway Park in the Forego Stakes. Air Token (9-2) is a stakes winner who won a Laurel allowance race Jan. 21.
5:25 p.m. – $250,000 Mineshaft Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds
Olympiad (3-1) aims to make the grade off an allowance victory Jan. 15 at Gulfstream for trainer Bill Mott. Jockey Junior Alvarado will pilot the 4-year-old Speightstown colt, who was fourth as a sophomore last December at Aqueduct in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). Chad Brown trains Miles D (7-2), whose ledger includes a third-place finish in Saratoga’s 2021 Travers Stakes (G1) and a last-out Aqueduct win Nov. 27 in the Discovery Stakes. Untreated (9-2) has won his last two starts off a layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher, including an Aqueduct allowance race on New Year’s Eve.
Related: Olympiad, Miles D are top choices for Mineshaft |
Triple Crown Tracker: See latest on racing's top 4-year-olds
5:56 p.m. – $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, about 1 1/8 miles (turf), Fair Grounds
Two Emmys (3-1) won what was likely the final edition of the Mr. D. Stakes (G1) – formerly the Arlington Million – three starts ago on Aug. 14 for trainer Hugh Robertson. The 6-year-old English Channel gelding seeks his second graded score Saturday under jockey James Graham. Todd Pletcher trains Largent (7-2), a Grade 2 winner who was fourth Jan. 8 at Gulfstream in the Tropical Turf Stakes (G3) off a layoff of nearly 12 months. Adhamo (9-2), who was a Group 3 victor in France, makes his North American debut in this spot for trainer Chad Brown.
6:27 p.m. – $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), 3-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds
Hidden Connection (3-1) is favored on the morning line for this event that pays Road to the Kentucky Oaks points on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Bret Calhoun trains and Reylu Gutierrez rides the Connect filly, a Grade 3 winner making her first start since running fourth Nov. 5 at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Doug O’Neill trains Awake At Midnyte (7-2), who flies east off a runner-up finish Jan. 8 at Santa Anita in the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2). Dream Lith (6-1) runs for a second Oaks trail score after taking Churchill Downs’ Golden Rod Stakes (G2) on Nov. 27 for trainer Robertino Diodoro.
Related: Analysis: Single California shipper in Rachel Alexandra | Hidden Connection is morning-line favorite in Rachel Alexandra