2022 Kentucky Derby trail: Rebel Stakes odds, picks, free PPs
Bob Baffert was stripped this week of his 2021 Kentucky Derby training win, and he is ineligible to compete in the next two Derbies. But the trainer’s presence still looms over the 2022 Derby trail as he saddles another favorite Saturday.
Newgrange (9-5) is favored on the morning line for the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes. Post time from Oaklawn Park is 6:22 p.m. EST, with TVG showing the 1 1/16-mile event.
The Rebel offers Road to the Kentucky Derby points on a 50-20-10-5 basis. A win Saturday for any horse not named Newgrange effectively punches a ticket to Churchill Downs for the first Saturday in May.
Newgrange is 3-for-3 in his career, including Kentucky Derby trail wins last month in both Santa Anita’s Sham Stakes (G3) and the local Southwest Stakes (G3). He would enter the Rebel with 20 points toward the Derby if not for Baffert’s two-year suspension from Churchill Downs.
Jockey John Velazquez retains the mount on the Violence colt Newgrange. Velazquez also lost a Derby win this week when Kentucky stewards disqualified the late, Baffert-trained Medina Spirit over a failed drug test and Churchill Downs subsequently recognized Mandaloun as the race’s 2021 victor.
Among the other 10 sophomores in the Rebel field, Barber Road (9-2) is the shortest price on the morning line. John Ortiz trains the former claimer, who was second in Oaklawn’s first two points-paying Derby preps, the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Jan. 29 Southwest.
The Dallas Stewart-trained Ben Diesel (6-1) was seventh in the Smarty Jones, then third in the Southwest. Smarty Jones winner Dash Attack (8-1) looks to rebound from a fifth-place showing in the Southwest for trainer Kenny McPeek. Steve Asmussen trains Chasing Time (8-1), who enters the Derby trail off a local Jan. 14 allowance win.
Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes, which moved up this year on the racing calendar, is the third of the track’s four stakes paying Road to the Kentucky Derby points. It follows the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes and precedes the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 2.
American Pharoah in 2015 was the last Rebel Stakes hero to go on and win the Kentucky Derby. Other notable Rebel winners over the last two decades include Smarty Jones (2004), Curlin (2007) and Will Take Charge (2013).
Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Rebel Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:
1. Kavod (Chris Hartman, Francisco Arrieta), 12-1
2. Newgrange (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez), 9-5
3. Cairama (Steve Asmussen, Geovanni Franco), 15-1
4. Un Ojo (Ricky Courville, Ramon Vazquez), 12-1
5. Texas Red Hot (Randy Morse, Ricardo Santana Jr.), 12-1
6. Stellar Tap (Steve Asmussen, Cristian Torres), 10-1
7. Ben Diesel (Dallas Stewart, Jon Court), 6-1
8. Chasing Time (Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione), 8-1
9. Barber Road (John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez), 9-2
10. Ethereal Road (D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras), 12-1
11. Dash Attack (Kenny McPeek, David Cohen), 8-1
TimeformUS’ pace projections show Kavod going out to an early lead under jockey Francisco Arrieta and setting a fast pace, followed by favorite Newgrange.
For more information on Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes and Honeybee Stakes (G3), visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page.
Road to the Kentucky Derby top 10
1. Epicenter, 64
2. Smile Happy, 30
3. Classic Causeway, 16
4. Pappacap, 14
5. Zandon, 14
6. White Abarrio, 12
7. Mo Donegal, 12
8. Rattle N Roll, 10
9. Jack Christopher, 10
10. Make It Big, 10
Related: Early look at Fountain of Youth, San Felipe fields
Rebel Stakes links
HRN staffers and contributors make expert picks for the 2022 Rebel Stakes. Reinier Macatangay also shows where to find value underneath Newgrange.
This week’s edition of the Super Screener identifies Ben Diesel as a value play for those looking beyond Newgrange. The Dallas Stewart-trained colt should benefit from not being stuck on the rail as he was in the Southwest Stakes.
Laurie Ross identifies three Rebel Stakes starters with a chance to beat Newgrange, two of whom are trained by Steve Asmussen.
Trainer John Ortiz says he is “enjoying the ride” with Barber Road. He talks about the Rebel Stakes runner and other horses in a Barn Tour.
This week on HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse pick both the Rebel Stakes and Saturday’s Saudi Cup.
Ron Flatter takes a look at the Rebel Stakes’ history of producing Kentucky Derby starters and identifies the running styles that have translated to success in the race.
In the latest edition of the Bob Baffert saga, he was denied a stay of his 90-day suspension by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. His lawyer said a Kentucky courtroom is the next step.
HRN has provided no shortage of other Baffert coverage this week. Check out stats that show he is winning at the highest rate of his career, a column on when his Derby prospects could move barns and a look at who’s who among the ownership group behind Newgrange and other 3-year-olds.
Other Saturday stakes
Here is a look at the two other graded stakes races taking place Saturday on U.S. soil. Post times are listed as EST, and both races can be seen on TVG.
Related: 4 superfecta keys Saturday at Oaklawn and Gulfstream | Saturday plays: Honeybee, Rebel and other Oaklawn races
2:27 p.m. – $150,000 Royal Delta Stakes (G3), 4-and-up fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park
Letruska (2-5), the Eclipse Award Champion Older Dirt Female of 2021, begins her 6-year-old season for trainer Fausto Gutierrez. Jockey Jose Ortiz will ride the Super Saver mare, a four-time Grade 1 winner who was 10th on Nov. 6 at Del Mar as a favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Kenny McPeek trains Crazy Beautiful (4-1), a three-time graded-stakes winner making her first start since running third Nov. 26 at Aqueduct Comely Stakes (G3). Il Malocchio (8-1), twice a stakes winner, was sixth last out at Woodbine in the Wonder Where Stakes on Oct. 2.
Related: Champion Letruska will take on 6 rivals in Royal Delta
3:10 p.m. – $300,000 Honeybee Stakes (G3), 3-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park
Secret Oath (3-2) aims for a third straight win here in this event that pays Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks points on a 50-20-10-5 basis. D. Wayne Lukas trains and Luis Contreras stays aboard the Arrogate filly, winner of Oaklawn’s Martha Washington Stakes on Jan. 29. Rodolphe Brisset trains Yuugiri (5-2), who makes her first start since running second Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2). Optionality (7-2) ran second to Secret Oath in the Martha Washington for trainer Steve Asmussen.
Related: Lukas has favorite in the Honeybee with Secret Oath | 103 Kentucky Oaks nominations include no Baffert fillies