2022 Kentucky Derby trail: Lexington odds, points picture
The road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby ends Saturday at Keeneland.
Tawny Port (5-2) is the morning-line favorite for the Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington Stakes. Post time from Lexington, Ky., is 5:16 p.m. EDT, with TVG showing the 1 1/16-mile stakes for 3-year-olds.
The Lexington is the final points-paying stop on the trail toward the Kentucky Derby, which will run May 7 for the 148th time. Points are awarded Saturday to the first four finishers on a 20-8-4-2 scale, giving this race potential to add late drama to the Derby bubble.
Of the 11 runners lined up for the Lexington, Tawny Port is the only one who would currently make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He occupies the final spot on the 20-horse leaderboard after earning 40 points April 2 with a runner-up finish at Turfway Park in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).
Rather than gambling that those 40 points would be enough, trainer Brad Cox elected to wheel the Pioneerof the Nile colt back two weeks later at Keeneland. That was before Saturday's news that Slow Down Andy, who has 50 points, was ruled out of the Derby with a fever, so Tawny Port is assured of an invitation to the May 7 classic.
Two Lexington Stakes starters, In Due Time (3-1) and Ethereal Road (10-1), sit at 20 points. A win by either would give one of them 40 points and a Derby invitation.
In Due Time’s only previous Derby-trail start came March 5 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), which, like the Lexington, runs at 1 1/16 miles. The Kelly Breen trainee came home second that day at Gulfstream Park behind Simplification.
Ethereal Road ran much more recently, finishing seventh last Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has put a proverbial line through that race, bringing him back seven days later and making a jockey change on the Rebel Stakes (G2) runner-up from Luis Contreras to Victor Espinoza.
Beyond the trio of Tawny Port, In Due Time and Ethereal Road, the other eight Lexington Stakes starters would need outside help to make the Kentucky Derby starting gates, even with a win Saturday.
Major General (4-1) earned 10 Derby points last September at Churchill Downs by winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3) but finished 10th on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), his only start this season. Keith Desormeaux trains Call Me Midnight (6-1), the Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner who was sixth on March 26 at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Charismatic in 1999 was the last Lexington Stakes runner to take the Kentucky Derby, winning both events for Lukas. 2021 Lexington winner King Fury scratched out of the Derby field.
Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Lexington Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:
1. Midnight Chrome (John Servis, Jose Ortiz), 20-1
2. In Due Time (Kelly Breen, Paco Lopez), 3-1
3. We All See It (Eddie Kenneally, Luis Saez), 15-1
4. Ethereal Road (D. Wayne Lukas, Victor Espinoza), 10-1
5. Howling Time (Dale Romans, Joe Talamo), 15-1
6. Skate to Heaven (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen), 30-1
7. Major General (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 4-1
8. Strava (Dallas Stewart, Tyler Gaffalione), 20-1
9. Tawny Port (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 5-2
10. Dash Attack (Kenny McPeek, Flavien Prat), 10-1
11. Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, James Graham), 6-1
TimeformUS pace projections show Strava under jockey Tyler Gaffalione going out to a narrow early lead over Major General. Favorite Tawny Port is expected to run mid-pack in the early stages.
Kentucky Derby points standings
Twenty spots are available in the Kentucky Derby starting gates. With no 3-year-olds from the European or Japanese Derby trails under consideration, all 20 will be claimed by runners who took the North American trail (which also includes the UAE Derby (G2)).
Here is a look at the current projected field, with points earned. This list reflects the reported defections this week of Classic Causeway and Forbidden Kingdom, both of whom earned enough points to qualify but will not run for the roses.
1. Epicenter, 164
2. Zandon, 114
3. White Abarrio, 112
4. Mo Donegal, 112
5. Tiz the Bomb, 110
6. Cyberknife, 100
7. Crown Pride, 100
8. Taiba, 100
9. Simplification, 74
10. Smile Happy, 70
11. Slow Down Andy, 60
12. Barber Road, 58
13. Un Ojo, 54
14. Early Voting, 50
15. Morello, 50
16. Messier, 40
17. Zozos, 40
18. Summer Is Tomorrow, 40
19. Charge It, 40
20. Tawny Port, 40
Other Saturday stakes
Here is a look at other stakes races of note Saturday at Keeneland and elsewhere across the U.S. All of them can be seen on TVG.
4:44 p.m. – $200,000 Giant’s Causeway Stakes, 3-and-up fillies and mares, 5 1/2 furlongs (turf), Keeneland
Campanelle (5-2) has three Group 1 or Group 2 victories on French or British soil, including the Commonwealth Cup (G1) last June at the Royal Ascot meet, but has not yet won a stakes race in North America. Wesley Ward trains and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rides the 4-year-old Kodiac filly, third-place finisher Oct. 15 at Keeneland in the Franklin County Stakes (G3). Chris Hartman trains Elle Z (3-1), whose three-race winning streak includes the Mardi Gras Stakes on March 1 at Fair Grounds. Michelle Lovell trains Change of Control (4-1), a two-time Grade 3 winner who ran third in the Mardi Gras.
5:02 p.m. – $125,000 Federico Tesio Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, Laurel Park
Joe (5-2) is the morning-line favorite for trainer Michael Trombetta in this event that awards its winner, if Triple Crown-nominated, a berth into the Preakness Stakes on May 21 at Pimlico. Jockey Victor Carrasco will pilot the Declaration of War colt, runner-up March 19 at Laurel Park in the Private Terms Stakes. Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon trains Shake Em Loose (3-1), who enters off a win in the Private Terms. Smarten Up (9-2) earned four Road to the Kentucky Derby points on New Year’s Day when second in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes and was second again last out in a March 28 allowance race at Parx for trainer Alfredo Velazquez.
5:48 p.m. – $500,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1), 4-and-up fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Keeneland
Shantisara (6-5) returns to the Keeneland lawn where she became a Grade 1 winner Oct. 16 when taking the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes. Jockey Flavien Prat will get a leg up on the 4-year-old Coulsty filly for trainer Chad Brown, four-time winner of the Jenny Wiley since 2015. Brown also trains Regal Glory (7-5), a Grade 1 heroine who most recently took the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational (G3) on Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park. Waliyak (6-1) makes her first start for trainer Edward Vaughan after finishing fourth on Oct. 17 at Woodbine for former trainer Roger Varian in the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1).
6:42 p.m. – $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3), 4-and-up, six furlongs, Oaklawn Park
Jackie’s Warrior (6-5) starts for the first time since he was named in February as Eclipse Award 2021 Champion Male Sprinter. Steve Asmussen trains and jockey Joel Rosario rides the 4-year-old Maclean’s Music colt, a three-time Grade 1 hero who settled for sixth on Nov. 6 at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Larry Jones trains Bob’s Edge (2-1), winner of the Whitmore Stakes (G3) on March 19 at Oaklawn Park. Empire of Gold (6-1) ran third in the 2021 Count Fleet and runs for the first time since winning a Remington Park allowance race Oct. 20 for trainer Terry Eoff.