2022 Kentucky Derby trail: Holy Bull, Withers odds, PPs, analysis

The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby will continue taking shape Saturday with preps in New York and Florida.

Aqueduct hosts the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles, while Gulfstream Park’s featured event is the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3), running 1 1/16 miles. Both races award Derby points on a 10-4-2-1 basis.

Visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for more information on both the Holy Bull and the Withers. Here is a look at both races:

4:25 p.m. – $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3), 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, FS2 and TVG

Trainer Chad Brown, who won the 2021 Withers with Risk Taking, saddles the morning-line favorite, Early Voting (3-1), for the race’s 2022 edition.

The Gun Runner colt Early Voting makes his second career start off a Dec. 18 win in his debut going one mile at Aqueduct. He adds another furlong of distance here under jockey Jose Ortiz.

Constitutionlawyer (7-2) broke his maiden on third asking Jan. 2 at Aqueduct for trainer Raymond Handal. The Kelly Breen-trained Courvoisier (9-2) already owns 10 Derby points thanks to his New Year’s Day win in the local Jerome Stakes. Cooke Creek (6-1) was third in the Jerome for trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer.

Aqueduct’s Withers follows the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Jerome as the third of its five points-paying Kentucky Derby preps. The New York track will host the $300,000 Gotham Stakes (G3, 50-20-10-5) on March 5 and the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2, 100-40-20-10) on April 9.

The Withers moved in 2012 from April to its current spot as a wintertime Kentucky Derby prep. 2013 race winner Revolutionary finished third in the Derby, while Sir Winston, fourth in the 2019 Withers, went on to upset the Belmont Stakes.

Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Withers Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Constitutionlawyer (Raymond Handal, Jose Lezcano), 7-2

2. Grantham (Mike Maker, Victor Carrasco), 10-1

3. Smarten Up (Alfredo Velazquez, Anthony Salgado), 10-1

4. Gilded Age (Bill Mott, Kendrick Carmouche), 10-1

5. Courvoisier (Kelly Breen, Ruben Silvera), 9-2

6. Unbridled Bomber (James Ryerson, Jorge Vargas Jr.), 12-1

7. Noneedtoworry (Herold Whylie, Silvestre Gonzalez), 30-1

8. Un Ojo (Anthony Dutrow, Trevor McCarthy), 20-1

9. Early Voting (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz), 3-1

10. Mr Jefferson (Michael Trombetta, Eric Cancel), 20-1

11. Cooke Creek (Jeremiah O’Dwyer, Manny Franco), 6-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show favorite Early Voting going out to an early lead and setting a fast pace under Ortiz, followed by Courvoisier.

5:10 p.m. – $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park, TVG

Mo Donegal (5-2), winner of Aqueduct’s Remsen Stakes (G2) on Dec. 4, makes the first start of his 3-year-old campaign further down the Atlantic coast at Gulfstream.

Todd Pletcher trains the Uncle Mo colt, who has worked steadily toward this spot since Christmas Eve at Palm Beach Downs. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. – whose Remsen ride was one of a few incidents resulting in a 30-day suspension by New York stewards for careless riding – retains the mount on Mo Donegal.

Dale Romans trains Giant Game (7-2), making his first start since finishing third Nov. 5 at Del Mar as a 22-1 shot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Simplification (4-1) enters off a local New Year’s Day win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes for trainer Antonio Sano. Kenny McPeek trains Tiz the Bomb (6-1), a Grade 2 victor who makes a surface change after running second Nov. 5 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Gulfstream’s series of points-paying Kentucky Derby preps kicks off with the Holy Bull. Next up is the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2, 50-20-10-5) on March 5, followed by the $1 million Florida Derby (G1, 100-40-20-10) on April 2.

The Holy Bull Stakes has been a productive mid-winter Kentucky Derby prep, with three of its winners scoring on the first Saturday in May: Go for Gin (1994), Funny Cide (2003) and Barbaro (2006). Tiz the Law used a win in the 2020 Holy Bull as a springboard toward victories that season in the Florida Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes (G1).

Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Holy Bull Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Galt (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado), 15-1

2. Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 5-2

3. Eloquist (Robert Reid Jr., Frankie Pennington), 20-1

4. Simplification (Antonio Sano, Javier Castellano), 4-1

5. Cajun’s Magic (Michael Yates, Jesus Rios), 8-1

6. Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.), 6-1

7. Spin Wheel (Rusty Arnold, Julien Leparoux), 20-1

8. White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione), 6-1

9. Giant Game (Dale Romans, Luis Saez), 7-2

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Simplification going out to a lead under jockey Javier Castellano, followed by White Abarrio. Favorite Mo Donegal is projected to settle near the back through the early stages.

Road to the Kentucky Derby top 10

1. Pappacap, 14

2. Epicenter, 14

3. Rattle N Roll, 10

4. Jack Christopher, 10

5. Make It Big, 10

6. Smile Happy, 10

7. Slow Down Andy, 10

8. Major General, 10

9. Dash Attack, 10

10. Mo Donegal, 10

Related: Report: Corniche awaits 1st work in '22, Derby uncertain

Other Saturday stakes

Here is a look at other graded stakes taking place Saturday across the U.S. All post times are EST, and all races will be shown on TVG.

1:50 p.m. – $150,000 Toboggan Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, seven furlongs, Aqueduct

Happy Medium (1-5) looms over the field for the Toboggan, which was supposed to run Jan. 29 but was postponed one week due to winter weather. Michelle Nevin trains and Manny Franco will ride the 4-year-old Runhappy gelding, who enters off three straight wins, including a local allowance score Dec. 18. Michael Catalano Jr. trains Hopeful Treasure (4-1), last out winner of Aqueduct’s Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) on Nov. 28. Drafted (8-1), twice a Group 3 hero in Dubai, was third Dec. 19 in the local Gravesend Stakes for trainer David Duggan.

1:57 p.m. – $100,000 Swale Stakes (G3), 3-year-olds, seven furlongs, Gulfstream Park

My Prankster (2-1) returns to graded stakes flight off a Gulfstream allowance win Dec. 10 for trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Luis Saez gets the call on the Into Mischief colt, who was fourth against Grade 1 foes last October at Belmont Park in the Champagne Stakes. Brad Cox trains In Dreams (5-2), a former maiden claimer stepping up in class after winning an Oaklawn Park allowance race Dec. 17. Of a Revolution (4-1) was second in the local Limehouse Stakes on New Year’s Day for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.

2:42 p.m. – $175,000 Endeavour Stakes (G3), 4-and-up fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Tampa Bay Downs

Lady Speightspeare (3-1) is 4-for-5 in her career for trainer Roger Attfield, including a Grade 1 score in Woodbine’s 2020 Natalma Stakes. Jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson will be up on the 4-year-old Speightstown filly, who was third in Gulfstream Park’s Tropical Park Oaks on Dec. 26. Graham Motion trains Oyster Box (4-1), runner-up on Halloween at Woodbine in the Ontario Damsel Stakes. In Italian (9-2) won an allowance event over Tampa’s turf Jan. 12 for trainer Chad Brown.

3:01 p.m. – $100,000 Kitten’s Joy Stakes (G3), 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Gulfstream Park

Grand Sonata (3-1) aims to make the grade off a New Year’s Day win in Gulfstream’s Dania Beach Stakes for Pletcher. Tyler Gaffalione will be up on the Medaglia d’Oro colt. Brian Lynch trains Red Danger (7-2), making his first start of 2022 after winning the local Pulpit Stakes on Dec. 3. Speaking Scout (4-1) was second in that Pulpit Stakes for Motion.

3:30 p.m. – $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, one mile (turf), Santa Anita

Subconscious (8-5) leads the first race of the Santa Anita card Saturday for trainer Richard Mandella. Jockey Juan Hernandez will pilot the 4-year-old Tapit gelding, winner of Santa Anita’s Twilight Derby (G2) on Halloween. Phil D’Amato trains Count Again (5-2), making his first start since a fifth-place finish Aug. 21 in the Del Mar Mile Stakes (G2). Ready Soul (5-2) was third Dec. 26 in the local San Gabriel Stakes (G3), also for D’Amato.

3:33 p.m. – $100,000 Forward Gal Stakes (G3), 3-year-old fillies, seven furlongs, Gulfstream Park

Radio Days (8-5) is favored for trainer Shug McGaughey in this sprint that pays Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks points on a 10-4-2-1 basis. Dylan Davis will ride the Gun Runner filly, whose 2-for-2 record includes a Dec. 2 allowance win at Aqueduct. Cox trains Girl With a Dream (5-2), who ships in from the trainer’s string at Fair Grounds, where she won the Letellier Memorial Stakes on Dec. 27. Diamond Wow (9-2) makes her first start since finishing Oct. 13 as runner-up at Keeneland in the Jessamine Stakes (G2).

3:46 p.m. – $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Tampa Bay Downs

Devamani (3-1), runner-up in the 2020 Tampa Bay Stakes, starts for the first time as an 8-year-old in the race’s 2022 running. Brown will give a leg up to jockey Pablo Morales on the Dubawi gelding, winner of the Monmouth Stakes (G3) on June 5 in his last start. Mark Casse trains Get Smokin (4-1), the 2021 Tampa Bay Stakes hero. L’Imperator (9-2) was fifth last out at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 18 for Brown in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes (G2).

4:37 p.m. – $100,000 Sweetest Chant Stakes (G3), 3-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles (turf), Gulfstream Park

Opalina (3-1) looks for her first stakes win after finishing third New Year’s Day in Gulfstream’s Ginger Brew Stakes. Trainer Roderick Rodriguez has tabbed Saez to pilot the Optimizer filly. Gilberto Zerpa trains Ocean Safari (4-1), who was second in the Ginger Brew. Battle Charge (5-1) makes her first graded start after winning a Dec. 8 allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs.

6:06 p.m. – $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes (G2), 4-and-up fillies and mares, seven furlongs, Santa Anita

Ce Ce (3-5) returns for her first race since winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint on Nov. 6 at Del Mar. Michael McCarthy trains the 6-year-old Elusive Quality mare, who will run for the sixth graded score of her career under jockey Victor Espinoza. Bob Baffert trains Kalypso (3-1), who takes on older runners for the first time after winning Santa Anita’s La Brea Stakes (G1) on Dec. 26. 2021 Santa Monica winner Merneith (7-2), another Baffert runner, was second Jan. 2 in the local Kalookan Queen Stakes.

7:10 p.m. – $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes (G2), 4-and-up, 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita

Express Train (2-1) looks for back-to-back victories after taking the local San Antonio Stakes (G2) on Dec. 26. Espinoza will pilot the 5-year-old son of Union Rags for trainer John Shirreffs. McCarthy trains Law Professor (5-2), who also won on the Dec. 26 Santa Anita card, in the Mathis Mile Stakes (G2). Eight Rings (3-1), a Grade 1 winner back in 2019, was third in the San Antonio for Baffert.