Kentucky Derby trail: El Camino Real, Sam F. Davis odds, free PPs

The 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby features points-paying preps Saturday in both Florida and California.

Tampa Bay Downs hosts the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, while the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. Both races award Derby points on a 10-4-2-1 basis.

This is the last Saturday until April 16 that does not feature a Kentucky Derby prep paying its winner at least 50 points. The 50-20-10-5 preps begin Feb. 19 when Fair Grounds hosts the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2).

Here is a look at Saturday’s two Derby preps, both of which will be shown on TVG. For more information on both races, visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page.

4:54 p.m. – $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Classic Causeway (3-1) looks for his first win in a Kentucky Derby prep after hitting the board in his first two such starts. He was third last October at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), then second Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

Brian Lynch trains the Giant’s Causeway colt for owner-breeders Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. leaves his winter base of Gulfstream Park on Saturday to ride Classic Causeway and nine others at Tampa.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won a Kentucky Derby prep last weekend when White Abarrio took the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. Saturday in the Davis, he sends out Make It Big (9-2), whose 3-for-3 record includes a previous Derby trail win Dec. 17 in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile.

Shipsational (6-1) brings a 3-for-4 record into this event for trainer Edward Barker. This is his first start since winning Belmont Park's Sleepy Hollow Stakes on Oct. 30.

The Sam F. Davis is the first of Tampa Bay’s duo of Road to the Kentucky Derby races. The Oldsmar, Fla., track hosts the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2, 50-20-10-5), also at 1 1/16 miles, on March 12.

No Davis runner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Notable race winners include 2016 Belmont Stakes runner-up Destin, 2009 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and 2010 Turf Classic (G1) hero General Quarters and 2006 Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1) winner Bluegrass Cat.

Here is a look at the field for the 2022 Sam F. Davis Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Mr Rum Runner (Patrick Biancone, Romero Maragh), 20-1

2. Unpredictable Bay (Alnaz Ali, Alonso Quinonez), 20-1

3. Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 3-1

4. Golden Glider (Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo), 12-1

5. God of Love (Mark Casse, Rafael Hernandez), 10-1

6. Trademark (Victoria Oliver, Daniel Centeno), 15-1

7. Make It Big (Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz), 9-2

8. Shipsational (Edward Barker, Javier Castellano), 6-1

9. Howling Time (Dale Romans, Joe Talamo), SCR

10. Volcanic (Mark Casse, Edwin Gonzalez), 12-1

11. Strike Hard (Matthew Williams, Leonel Reyes), 6-1

12. Kitten Mischief (Jonathan Thomas, Manny Franco), 12-1

13. Little Vic (Juan Carlos Avila, Paco Lopez), 15-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Little Vic hustling from the far outside post to set a fast pace under jockey Paco Lopez, followed closely by long shot Unpredictable Bay and favorite Classic Causeway.

7:30 p.m. ­– $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles (all-weather), Golden Gate

Mackinnon (8-5) made his first start on the Kentucky Derby trail at Santa Anita on New Year’s Day, where he ran fourth in the Sham Stakes (G3). The American Pharoah colt now heads up the Pacific Coast and makes a surface change, tackling the all-weather track at Golden Gate.

Doug O’Neill trains Mackinnon, who was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last November at Del Mar. Southern California jockey Abel Cedillo flies north to pilot the favorite in an 11-horse field.

Bob Baffert trains Blackadder (7-2), a third-out maiden winner Dec. 26 at Santa Anita. That colt is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby points this race awards due to Baffert’s two-year suspension from Churchill Downs properties.

Boise (9-2) is the top local hope Saturday at Golden Gate. Trained by Jonathan Wong, he won the local Gold Rush Stakes two starts back on Dec. 4.

The El Camino Real Derby is one of three Road to the Kentucky Derby preps in the U.S. that take place on a synthetic surface. Turfway Park offers the $125,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on March 5 and the $600,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on April 2, both on its all-weather track.

In addition to its Kentucky Derby points, the El Camino Real Derby offers its winner a Preakness Stakes berth, if that horse is nominated to the Triple Crown. Rombauer in 2021 won the El Camino Real, then upset the Preakness two starts later at 12-1 odds.

Related: El Camino Real analysis: Classic hopefuls try synthetic | Boise might head for Preakness with win in El Camino Real

Here is the field for the 2022 El Camino Real Derby (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Stormy Samurai (Jack Steiner, William Antongeorgi III), 8-1

2. Mackinnon (Doug O’Neill, Abel Cedillo), 8-5

3. Unraptured (Tim McCanna, Armando Ayuso), 10-1

4. Blackadder (Bob Baffert, Edwin Maldonado), 7-2

5. Nuestro Engreido (Felix Rondan, Santos Rivera), 20-1

6. Boise (Jonathan Wong, Evin Roman), 9-2

7. Dr Pescado (Felix Rondan, Pedro Terrero), 15-1

8. Meetmeattheclub (Daniel Franko, Silvio Amador), 50-1

9. C’Mon Man (Bill McLean, Irving Orozco), 15-1

10. Il Bellator (Jose Bautista, Alejandro Gomez), 20-1

11. Del Mo (Doug O’Neill, Ruben Fuentes), 10-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show long shot Nuestro Engreido going out to a lead under jockey Santos Rivera. Favorite Mackinnon is expected to settle near the back early on.

Road to the Kentucky Derby top 10

1. Pappacap, 14

2. Epicenter, 14

3. White Abarrio, 12

4. Mo Donegal, 12

5. Rattle N Roll, 10

6. Jack Christopher, 10

7. Make It Big, 10

8. Smile Happy, 10

9. Slow Down Andy, 10

10. Major General, 10

Other Saturday stakes

Here is a look at other stakes races of note taking place Saturday across the U.S. All post times are EST, and all races will be shown on TVG.

Related: Saturday plays: Bayakoa, Razorback, Sam F. Davis, more

1:57 p.m. – $100,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3), 4-and-up, five furlongs (turf), Gulfstream Park

Gear Jockey (3-5) makes his first start since finishing sixth Nov. 6 at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Rusty Arnold trains the 5-year-old son of Twirling Candy, a Grade 3 winner who will have jockey Luis Saez up. Frank Russo trains Belgrano (9-2), who was third Jan. 8 in the local Tropical Turf Stakes (G3), which was rained off the turf and onto the Tapeta. Yes I Am Free (6-1) ran fourth New Year’s Eve at Gulfstream in the Janus Stakes for trainer Laura Cazares.

3:49 p.m. – $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, 3-year-old fillies, one mile and 40 yards, Tampa Bay Downs

Nest (3-5) makes the first start of her 3-year-old campaign in this race that pays Road to the Kentucky Oaks points on a 10-4-2-1 basis. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and Todd Pletcher trains the Curlin filly, winner of the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on Dec. 4. Michael Dini trains Alittleloveandluck (5-1), who looks for another stakes score after winning Gulfstream Park’s Ginger Brew on New Year’s Day. Ha’ Penny (8-1) was fourth Jan. 15 in Tampa’s Gasparilla Stakes.

4:47 p.m. – $250,000 Bayakoa Stakes (G3), 4-and-up fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park

Coach (5-2) is favored on the morning line for this event, which weather postponed one week from Feb. 5. Brad Cox trains and Ricardo Santana Jr. will ride the 4-year-old Commissioner filly, winner of the local Pippin Stakes on Jan. 8. Cox also trains Matera (3-1), a stakes winner who finished second Nov. 20 at Churchill Downs in the Chilukki Stakes (G3). Queen Goddess (3-1) remains on the main track after winning an off-the-turf running of the American Oaks (G1) on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita for trainer Michael McCarthy.

5:56 p.m. – $600,000 Razorback Handicap (G3), 4-and-up, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park

Lone Rock (3-1), who has become a long-distance specialist for trainer Robertino Diodoro, shortens is favored at a shorter distance of 8½ furlongs. Ramon Vazquez stays aboard the 7-year-old Majestic Warrior gelding, a two-time Grade 2 winner who won Oaklawn’s Tinsel Stakes on Dec. 18. Cox trains Plainsman (7-2), twice a Grade 3 hero and third-place finisher Dec. 4 at Aqueduct in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). Promise Keeper (4-1), who took Belmont Park’s Peter Pan Stakes (G3) last spring, makes his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher since finishing fourth June 26 at Thistledown in the Ohio Derby (G3).

7:45 p.m. – $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes (G3), 3-year-old fillies, about 6½ furlongs (turf), Santa Anita

Urban (5-2) is favored for her graded-stakes debut after winning for the first time Jan. 8 at Santa Anita in her fifth career start, her fourth in maiden company. Jockey Flavien Prat gets the call on the Quality Road filly for trainer Simon Callaghan. Peter Eurton trains I Got a Gal (7-2), a fourth-out maiden winner locally Dec. 27. Ouraika (4-1), who started her career in France, looks for her first start in three tries on U.S. soil for trainer Graham Motion.