2022 Kentucky Derby odds: Baffert influence remains strong

Photo: Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada

Even if he is barred from sending any of his horses to Churchill Downs for at least 15 more months, there is no denying Bob Baffert’s influence on Kentucky Derby 2022 betting in Las Vegas.

After Newgrange won Saturday’s Grade 3, $750,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, his futures odds were cut from 35-1 to 25-1 at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada and from 20-1 to 18-1 at Circa Sports.

Like all the 3-year-olds in Baffert’s stable, Newgrange is ineligible for now to compete in the Derby or even earn points from preps such as the Southwest. Bettors who have lined up behind him, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Corniche and their stablemates are counting on those horses being transferred to trainers eligible to be at Churchill Downs.

The presence of more than 500 respected gamblers at the National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas certainly influenced the odds.

“I can tell that NHC is in town,” Caesars at William Hill oddsmaker Paul Bach said. “They’re firing away on some of these horses on my list that have accomplished nothing but a maiden win.”

American Icon was a case in point. A winner of his only start last month, he was bet from 80-1 to 50-1 at Bach’s shop and 100-1 to 35-1 at Circa.

More accomplished horses also generated some steam. Forbidden Kingdom, who won Saturday’s San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita, was cut from 75-1 to 50-1 at Caesars at William Hill and from 42-1 to 20-1 at Circa. Tiz the Bomb, a two-time stakes winner who is expected to move back to the dirt this weekend in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, went from 50-1 to 45-1 at Circa and 120-1 to 40-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Circa raised the odds for 94 horses, cut them for 25, added two choices and dropped 12, leaving 258 on its Derby board. Caesars at William Hill went shorter for 12 horses, longer for 10 and added three to bring its total to 200.

Between the two racebooks, there are 288 horses in the Las Vegas futures for the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby futuresCircaC-WHTrainerSire
Smile Happy  16-1  16-1Ken McPeekRunhappy
Corniche  18-1    6-1Bob BaffertQuality Road
Emmanuel  25-1  20-1Todd PletcherMore Than Ready
Newgrange  18-1  25-1Bob BaffertViolence
Zandon  24-1  25-1Chad BrownUpstart
Epicenter  27-1  25-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Jack Christopher  28-1  15-1Chad BrownMunnings
Mo Donegal  28-1  25-1Todd PletcherUncle Mo
Rattle N Roll  28-1  22-1Ken McPeekConnect
Commandperformance  30-1  30-1Todd PletcherUnion Rags
Pappacap  38-1  40-1Mark CasseGun Runner
Rocket Dawg  42-1  45-1Brad CoxClassic Empire
Slow Down Andy  45-1  40-1Doug O'NeillNyquist
Tiz the Bomb  45-1  40-1Ken McPeekHit It a Bomb
American Icon  35-1  50-1Todd PletcherGun Runner
Barber Road  50-1 John OrtizRaceday
Chasing Time  26-1  50-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Classic Causeway  50-1  35-1Brian LynchGiant's Causeway
Echo Zulu (f)  35-1  50-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Forbidden Kingdom  20-1  50-1Richard MandellaAmerican Pharoah
Giant Game  38-1  50-1Dale RomansGiant's Causeway
God of Love  50-1 Mark CasseCupid
Wit  30-1  50-1Todd PletcherPractical Joke
Messier  65-1  20-1Bob BaffertEmpire Maker
Call Me Midnight  70-1  65-1Keith DesormeauxMidnight Lute
Sir London  70-1  65-1Simon CallaghanMalibu Moon
Charge It  55-1  75-1Todd PletcherTapit
Varatti  65-1  75-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Wharton  55-1  75-1Bob BaffertCandy Ride
Dash Attack  65-1  85-1Ken McPeekMunnings
Simplification  85-1  50-1Antonio SanoNot This Time
Big City Lights 100-1Luis MéndezMr. Big
Bold Journey  80-1100-1Bill MottHard Spun
Bye Bye Bobby100-1 Todd FincherQuality Road
Cyberknife100-1  75-1Brad CoxGun Runner
Dean's List100-1100-1Todd PletcherSpeightstown
Doppelgänger  75-1100-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Golden Glider  95-1100-1Mark CasseGhostzapper
Happy Jack100-1 Doug O'NeillOxbow
Iron Works  75-1100-1Todd PletcherDistorted Humor
Mackinnon100-1 Doug O'NeillAmerican Pharoah
Magnolia Midnight175-1 Dallas StewartMidnight Storm
Make It Big  80-1100-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Neolithic
Oviatt Class100-1  75-1Keith DesormeauxBernardini
High Oak110-1  80-1Bill MottGormley
Early Voting  90-1120-1Chad BrownGun Runner
Chancellor Bay 125-1Daniel PitaHonor Code
Constitutionlawyer 125-1Ray HandalConstitution
Gold Rush Candy 125-1Bob BaffertDanzing Candy
Keepcalmcarryon 125-1Todd PletcherUnion Rags
Major General125-1  55-1Todd PletcherConstitution
My Prankster125-1100-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Pinehurst125-1  85-1Bob BaffertTwirling Candy
Winning Map125-1100-1Bob BaffertLiam's Map
Flying Drummer135-1100-1Bob BaffertGun Runner
Swing Shift125-1135-1Midnight FormTodd Pletcher
Courvoisier140-1100-1Kelly BreenTapit
Defend 140-1Cathal LynchAmerican Freedom
Dry Stout150-1 Mitsunori MakiuraSinister Minister
Nakatomi (g)140-1  45-1Wesley WardFiring Line
Apprehend150-1150-1Rene AmescuaArrogate
Favorite Outlaw  80-1150-1Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Howling Time150-1  60-1Dale RomansNot This Time
In Dreams150-1150-1Brad CoxFrosted
Little Drama 150-1Steve AsmussenDramedy
Markhamian 150-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaSocial Inclusion
McLaren Vale125-1150-1Bob BaffertGun Runner
Micky From Wexford (g) 150-1John EnnisDialed In
Overstep150-1120-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Senbei150-1150-1Christophe ClémentCandy Ride
Spin Wheel150-1 Rusty ArnoldHard Spun
Straight Up G150-1125-1Richard BaltasStraight Fire
Strava150-1100-1Dallas StewartInto Mischief
Strike Hard150-1135-1Matthew WilliamsFlashback
Surfer Dude150-1 Dallas StewartCurlin
Trafalgar160-1  90-1Al Stall Jr.Lord Nelson
Ben Diesel175-1100-1Dallas StewartWill Take Charge
Durante175-1175-1Doug O'NeillDistorted Humor
Fromanothamutha150-1175-1Ray HandalUnified
Gilded Age175-1150-1Bill MottMedaglia d'Oro
Glacial 175-1Norm CasseFrosted
Gunite175-1  55-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Home Brew175-1125-1Brad CoxStreet Sense
Longshadow 175-1Kelsey DannerTapiture
Page One 175-1Brad CoxPractical Joke
Power Agenda 175-1Todd PletcherNyquist
Quick to Blame175-1 Brad CoxBlame
Rockefeller175-1  55-1Bob BaffertMedaglia d'Oro
Tengo Mis Papeles 175-1Bret CalhounMy Golden Song
Volcanic175-1150-1Mark CasseViolence
American Xperiment100-1200-1Steve AsmussenNyquist
Authorize200-1150-1Bill MottCurlin
Ava K's Boy 200-1Carlos MartínClassic Empire
Blue Kentucky (g)175-1200-1Wayne CatalanoInclude
Bochombo 200-1Luis MéndezStreet Boss
Bodock200-1 Brad CoxStreet Boss
Dean Delivers (g)125-1200-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Fight Your Corner 200-1Tony MargottaFrosted
Franklin One Star (g)200-1 Doug O'NeillDanzing Candy
Gunfighter200-1 Brad CoxGhostzapper
H P Moon (r)200-1125-1Lacey GaudetMalibu Moon
Joe200-1150-1Mike TrombettaDeclaration of War
Kavod200-1175-1Jim ChapmanLea
Murray200-1  75-1Bob BaffertStreet Sense
Octane (g)200-1  60-1Carlos DavidBrethren
Shipsational200-1100-1Ed BarkerMidshipman
Stolen Base 200-1Mike MakerBodemeister
Trust Our Journey 200-1Carlos DavidAmerican Pharoah
White Abarrio200-1  50-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Race Day
Witty (g)200-1 McLane HendriksGreat Notion
Feelthebeat 225-1Norman McKnightCupid
Gilded Ruler225-1 Brad CoxInto Mischief
Graphic Detail225-1200-1Bill MottPractical Joke
Insolito225-1 Brad CoxConnect
Joker Boy 225-1Brian KorinerPractical Joke
Kid Corleone225-1150-1Doug O'NeillShackleford
Little Vic225-1150-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaPractical Joke
Tejano Twist (g)225-1 Bret CalhounPractical Joke
Avant Glory 250-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Khozan
Belgrade250-1150-1Brendan WalshHard Spun
Bet On Mookie 250-1Ruben AlvaradoUncaptured
Bourbon Heist250-1  85-1Ian WilkesPractical Joke
Cajun's Magic (g)250-1100-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Coinage 150-1Mark CasseTapit
Cooke Creek250-1175-1Jeremiah O'DwyerUncle Mo
Double Thunder250-1100-1Todd PletcherSuper Saver
Dr. Perry250-1125-1Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Elusive Target 250-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Forced Ranking250-1150-1Chad BrownMastery
Full Disclosure (g) 250-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
In Due Time 250-1Kelly BreenNot This Time
Judge Davis250-1225-1Shug McGaugheyDistorted Humor
Key Point250-1125-1Chad BrownInto Mischief
King Cab (g) 250-1Eddie Plesa Jr.Noble Bird
Kupuna250-1150-1Bret CalhounHard Spun
Lucky Boss 250-1Ken McPeekStreet Boss
Montebello250-1150-1Bob BaffertCurlin
On the Come Up 250-1Kelly BreenMission Impazible
Overbore 140-1Wesley WardSpeightstown
Peaceful Waters250-1 Al Stall Jr.Dialed In
Presidential250-1 Steve AsmussenPioneerof the Nile
Stellar Tap250-1125-1Steve AsmussenTapit
Trademark (g)250-1125-1Vicki OliverUpstart
Unpredictable Bay250-1175-1Al AliCairo Prince
Vivar350-1 Brad CoxCairo Prince
What In Blazes 250-1Jerry HollendorferStraight Fire
Whittington Park 250-1Brad CoxMidnight Lute
Desert Ruler 275-1Daniel PitaCandy Ride
Of a Revolution275-1200-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Maclean's Music
Practical Coach 275-1Butch ReidPractical Joke
Seal Beach275-1 Mike MakerMidshipman
Trip to Spain 275-1Jamey ThomasStay Thirsty
A. P.'s Secret300-1150-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Cupid
Back to Normal300-1 Mike MakerLiam's Map
Barossa300-1150-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Cattin300-1200-1Ralph NicksNeolithic
Chattalot300-1150-1Steve AsmussenMidnight Lute
Classic Moment300-1150-1Steve AsmussenClassic Empire
Combustion300-1 Keizo ItoDiscreet Cat
Cool Papa G300-1250-1Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Costa Terra300-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Deal Go Down 300-1Mark CasseCairo Prince
Don't Wait Up300-1150-1Tony DutrowUpstart
Freelancer300-1200-1Brendan WalshMedaglia d'Oro
Geno300-1 David DonkBig Brown
Higher Standard300-1 Tom AmossInto Mischief
Ignitis300-1225-1D. Wayne LukasNyquist
Impressionist (g)300-1150-1Rob AtrasMission Impazible
Ironstone300-1 Willie ArmataMr Speaker
Kaely's Brother300-1250-1Brad CoxTwirling Candy
Kamui300-1125-1Bob BaffertQuality Road
Kevin's Folly300-1200-1Tom AmossDistorted Humor
Life Is Great300-1175-1Bob KlesarisTapiture
Lightening Larry300-1175-1Jeff EnglerUncaptured
Local Motive (g)300-1 John Salzman Jr.Divining Rod
Midnight Chrome300-1 Tyler ServisCalifornia Chrome
Mr Jefferson300-1 Mike TrombettaConstitution
Old Town Road300-1 Wesley WardClassic Empire
Osbourne (g)300-1200-1Ron MoquettTapiture
Red Danger300-1 Brian LynchOrb
Red Knobs300-1 Dale RomansUnion Rags
Red Run300-1150-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Rewire (g)300-1 Brad CoxMohaymen
Rock N Rye300-1225-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Roger McQueen300-1135-1Larry RivelliUnified
Rotknee300-1200-1Mike MakerRunhappy
Run Curtis Run300-1300-1Mike MakerSummer Front
Sky and Sand300-1 Steve AsmussenMidshipman
Smarten Up300-1 Alfredo VelázquezAmerican Freedom
So Determined300-1200-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Triple Elvis300-1 Chad BrownInto Mischief
Un Ojo (g)300-1 Tony DutrowLaoban
Vodka N Water300-1 Steve AsmussenFed Biz
Winterwood300-1 Rodolphe BrissetMaclean's Music
Hagler325-1200-1Rudy RodríguezTapiture
Headline Report (g)325-1135-1Wesley WardGormley
Hicksy325-1 Kevin AttardHootenanny
Hot Rod Rumble (g)325-1 Steve AsmussenMidnight Storm
Legendary Lore325-1250-1Bill MoreyPractical Joke
Texas Red Hot325-1175-1Randy MorseTexas Red
Underhill's Tab325-1 Al Stall Jr.Unified
All in Sync350-1 Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Alottahope350-1 John RobbEditorial
Aquitania Arrival (g) 350-1Rene AmescuaCarpe Diem
Bourbon's Hope (g)350-1250-1Charlton BakerExaggerator
Brigadier General350-1 Dallas StewartStreet Sense
Bron and Brow350-1 Ruben AlvaradoGormley
Capt. Candy (g)350-1 Anthony PecoraroImagining
Churchtown (g)350-1 Roger AttfieldAir Force Blue
Cogburn350-1125-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Concept350-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Dakota Gold350-1 Danny GarganFreud
Duke of Love350-1 Josie CarrollCupid
El Pando350-1100-1Jaylan ClaryOutwork
Enbarr350-1125-1Bob BaffertBrody's Cause
Fan the Fire350-1200-1Mike MakerHard Spun
Fast Draw Munnings350-1 Jeff MullinsMunnings
Finneus350-1125-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Great Escape350-1175-1Rodolphe BrissetMidnight Storm
Hitting Bombs350-1 Brian LynchGun Runner
Hoist the Gold300-1350-1Dallas StewartMineshaft
Husband Material350-1 Jimmy TonerAmerican Pharoah
Mamzooj350-1 Dan PeitzDaaher
Midnight Worker350-1225-1Todd PletcherOutwork
Misbehaved350-1 Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Mr. Mox (g) 350-1Jamie NessDivining Rod
Pressure350-1225-1Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Speaking Scout350-1 Graham MotionMr Speaker
Ten Gauge350-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Tops the Chart (g) 350-1Jorge DuarteMaclean's Music
Twenty Four Mamba350-1300-1Mark CasseClassic Empire
Unbridled Bomber350-1 Jim RyersonUpstart
Union Train350-1160-1John ShirreffsUnion Rags
Unique Unions (g)350-1 Rick SchosbergUnion Jackson
Affable Monarch400-1175-1Jorge DuarteArrogate
Almanzo400-1 Brad CoxTapit
American Sanctuary400-1 Chris DavisAmerican Freedom
Annapolis400-1150-1Todd PletcherWar Front
B Sudd400-1250-1Dallas StewartJimmy Creed
Baladi400-1300-1Brendan WalshPioneerof the Nile
Bali's Shade400-1 Rudy RodríguezBal a Bali
Barese400-1200-1Mike MakerLaoban
Big Papa Steve400-1 Reid FranceMr. Big
Bureau400-1 Ron MoquettMastery
Cairama400-1300-1Steve AsmussenCairo Prince
Call Me Jamal (g)400-1 Mike PuhichMalibu Moon
Candy Landing (r)400-1200-1Brendan WalshTwirling Candy
Dance Code400-1200-1Juan VázquezHonor Code
Daufuskie Island400-1250-1Jeremiah EnglehartGoldencents
Degree of Risk (r)400-1 Eoin HartyCairo Prince
Guntown400-1175-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Hope In Him400-1350-1Joe OrsenoChitu
Kenner400-1175-1Jamie NessLaoban
Line Change400-1200-1Mike StidhamNyquist
Matt Doyle400-1 Chad SummersViolence
Mob Boss400-1 Jeff BondeSky Mesa
Naval Aviator400-1 Brad CoxTapit
Nineties Country400-1150-1Brad CoxConnect
O Captain400-1150-1Gustavo DelgadoCarpe Diem
Ohtwoohthreefive400-1 George WeaverUnion Rags
Ottoman Empire400-1 Tom AmossClassic Empire
Oubabe400-1 John SadlerHe Be Fire N Ice
Pec Tacular400-1 Bob Hess Jr.Outwork
Ruggs400-1 Ron MoquettGun Runner
Shastree400-1275-1Teresa PompayStreet Sense
Skippylongstocking400-1275-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Exaggerator
Speaking (g)400-1200-1Eddie Owens Jr.Mr Speaker
Spuntacular400-1300-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaHard Spun
Street Art 400-1Keith DesormeauxStreet Boss
Thirsty Always400-1175-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Tough to Tame400-1200-1Chris DavisSpeightster
Unified Report400-1300-1Dallas StewartUnified
Waita Minute Hayes400-1 Ricky CourvilleTiznow
Who Hoo Thats Me400-1275-1Jorge AbreuKeen Ice
Zatip400-1125-1Graham MotionTapit
Forty Stripes450-1350-1Jerry HollendorferMunnings
Baytown Frosty 300-1Paul McEnteeFrosted
Bueno Bueno500-1 Jack SistersonLord Nelson
Chileno500-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Eloquist500-1 Butch ReidNyquist
Immoral (g)500-1 Brittany RussellInto Mischief
Mumayaz500-1 Dan PeitzBodemeister
On Thin Ice500-1 Mark CasseMore Than Ready
Revenir (g)500-1 Danny PishHard Spun
Rich Strike500-1 Eric ReedKeen Ice
Rod Two Rod500-1 Gustavo DelgadoUnified
Rowdy Rascal (g)500-1 Boyd CasterDen's Legacy
Shamayim500-1 Rosa RamírezCrema d'Oro
f-Filly g-Gelding r-Ridgling    
Circa: Circa Sportsbook    
C-WH: Caesars at Wm. Hill    
Dropped by Circa:    
  What In Blazes275-1   
  Bustin Piètre (g)300-1   
  Defend300-1   
  Micky From Wexford (g)300-1
  Rhetoric300-1   
  Power Agenda325-1   
  Sacred Samurai325-1   
  Don'tcrossthedevil350-1  
  Whittington Park350-1   
  Mr. Bouma500-1   
  Mr. Mox (g)500-1   
  Olympic Legend500-1  

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