2022 Kentucky Derby odds: 279 horses, 1 big mover in Vegas

Photo: Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada

There was new doubt expressed about winter-book favorite Corniche, and there were three points preps during the weekend. But no one rattled the Kentucky Derby futures market in Nevada last week like the winner of a one-turn, $61,000 allowance in South Florida. 

In Due Time went from 250-1 to an eyebrow-raising 20-1 thanks to a flurry of maximum bets that an unidentified party made Friday at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada. The wagers came in shortly after the $95,000 colt who is trained by Kelly Breen won by 5 3/4 lengths going one mile on the main track at Gulfstream Park.

“They took 250-1, great value,” said Paul Bach, who writes the futures for Caesars at William Hill. “Then 100-1, OK value. Then 50-1, poor value. Impressive win, but it was a one-turn mile in an allowance optional claiming race and not running against much.”

Then the action moved to Circa Sports, where oddsmaker Paul Zilm opened the Not This Time colt owned by Edge Racing at 125-1 on Friday night.

That did not last long.

“Got bet pretty quick at 125-1 on the app,” Zilm said. “Went straight to 60-1.”

That was where In Due Time settled at Circa. By midday Saturday he was back to 35-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Circa maintains a $200 betting limit for bets made digitally. At Caesars at William Hill the maximum is based on the potential payout. Both bookmakers reserve the right to raise limits for known customers who wager in person or via a licensed proxy.

Corniche, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, drifted from 18-1 to 22-1 at Circa and from a 6-1 to 8-1 favorite at Caesars at William Hill. That followed a report that the likely division champion for 2021 might be a doubt for Churchill Downs on May 7. Marette Farrell, racing manager for owner Speedway Stable, told Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman, “We’re not forcing him to make the Derby.”

Messier, a stablemate of Corniche from the Bob Baffert stable, shortened from 75-1 to 20-1 at Circa. That was the result of his 15-length runaway Sunday in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita, a performance that earned division-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103. Caesars at William Hill kept Messier at last week’s odds of 20-1.

Like Corniche, Messier would have to be transferred to another trainer to earn qualifying points and race in the Derby. That is because Baffert and his horses were banned after the late Medina Spirit failed a drug test following his first-place finish in the 2021 Derby.

The winners of Saturday’s points preps were in lockstep with one another as they shortened in the Nevada futures. White Abarrio, victorious in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, and Early Voting, first in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct, were cut to 40-1 at Circa and 16-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Mo Donegal, the 2021 Remsen (G2) winner who closed to finish third in the Holy Bull, and Emmanuel, a highly regarded allowance winner who is trained by Todd Pletcher, were cut to 15-1 at Circa, where they are joint favorites with Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victor Smile Happy.

In a less conspicuous move, Caesars at William Hill shortened the odds against any horse winning the Triple Crown, taking the “yes” option from 7-1 to 13-2. The “no” went from 1-11 to 1-10.

The Nevada futures will have company this week with Pool 3 of the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager being conducted by Churchill Downs from Friday at noon to Sunday at 6 p.m. EST.

Kentucky Derby futuresCircaC-WHTrainerSire
Smile Happy  15-1  14-1Ken McPeekRunhappy
Emmanuel  15-1  16-1Todd PletcherMore Than Ready
Messier  20-1  20-1Bob BaffertEmpire Maker
Corniche  22-1    8-1Bob BaffertQuality Road
Mo Donegal  15-1  22-1Todd PletcherUncle Mo
Rattle N Roll  22-1  20-1Ken McPeekConnect
Newgrange  18-1  25-1Bob BaffertViolence
Zandon  25-1  25-1Chad BrownUpstart
Epicenter  28-1  25-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Commandperformance  30-1  30-1Todd PletcherUnion Rags
American Icon  40-1  35-1Todd PletcherGun Runner
Early Voting  40-1  16-1Chad BrownGun Runner
Echo Zulu (f)  38-1  40-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Forbidden Kingdom  20-1  40-1Richard MandellaAmerican Pharoah
White Abarrio  40-1  16-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Race Day
Classic Causeway  42-1  35-1Brian LynchGiant's Causeway
Jack Christopher  45-1  15-1Chad BrownMunnings
Major General  45-1  45-1Todd PletcherConstitution
Pappacap  45-1  40-1Mark CasseGun Runner
Rocket Dawg  48-1  45-1Brad CoxClassic Empire
Chasing Time  26-1  50-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
God of Love  50-1 Mark CasseCupid
Slow Down Andy  50-1  40-1Doug O'NeillNyquist
Wit   50-1Todd PletcherPractical Joke
Charge It  55-1  40-1Todd PletcherTapit
Barber Road  60-1 John OrtizRaceday
In Due Time  60-1  35-1Kelly BreenNot This Time
Simplification  70-1  25-1Antonio SanoNot This Time
Giant Game  25-1  75-1Dale RomansGiant's Causeway
Varatti  65-1  75-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Dash Attack  75-1  85-1Ken McPeekMunnings
Call Me Midnight  90-1  65-1Keith DesormeauxMidnight Lute
Big City Lights 100-1Luis MéndezMr. Big
Bold Journey  80-1100-1Bill MottHard Spun
Cyberknife100-1  75-1Brad CoxGun Runner
Dean's List  90-1100-1Todd PletcherSpeightstown
Doppelgänger  85-1100-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Golden Glider  95-1100-1Mark CasseGhostzapper
Iron Works  45-1100-1Todd PletcherDistorted Humor
Mackinnon100-1 Doug O'NeillAmerican Pharoah
Magnolia Midnight175-1 Dallas StewartMidnight Storm
Make It Big  95-1100-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Neolithic
Oviatt Class100-1  75-1Keith DesormeauxBernardini
Tiz the Bomb  60-1100-1Ken McPeekHit It a Bomb
Wharton100-1  75-1Bob BaffertCandy Ride
Sir London120-1  50-1Simon CallaghanMalibu Moon
Chancellor Bay 125-1Daniel PitaHonor Code
Constitutionlawyer 125-1Ray HandalConstitution
Gold Rush Candy 125-1Bob BaffertDanzing Candy
Golden Code 125-1Todd PletcherHonor Code
Happy Jack125-1 Doug O'NeillOxbow
High Oak125-1  80-1Bill MottGormley
Keepcalmcarryon 125-1Todd PletcherUnion Rags
Morello125-1 Steve AsmussenClassic Empire
My Prankster 125-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Pinehurst125-1  85-1Bob BaffertTwirling Candy
Winning Map125-1100-1Bob BaffertLiam's Map
Flying Drummer135-1100-1Bob BaffertGun Runner
Nitrous Channel 135-1George WeaverNyquist
Old Homestead 135-1Brett BrinkmanOveranalyze
Bye Bye Bobby140-1 Todd FincherQuality Road
Defend 140-1Cathal LynchAmerican Freedom
Dry Stout150-1 Mitsunori MakiuraSinister Minister
Nakatomi (g)140-1  45-1Wesley WardFiring Line
Apprehend150-1150-1Rene AmescuaArrogate
Courvoisier110-1150-1Kelly BreenTapit
Ethereal Road150-1135-1D. Wayne LukasQuality Road
Favorite Outlaw100-1150-1Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Galt150-1 Bill MottMedaglia d'Oro
Gilded Age  90-1150-1Bill MottMedaglia d'Oro
Happy Boy Rocket 150-1Bill MottRunhappy
In Dreams150-1150-1Brad CoxFrosted
Little Drama 150-1Steve AsmussenDramedy
Markhamian 150-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaSocial Inclusion
McLaren Vale125-1150-1Bob BaffertGun Runner
Micky From Wexford (g) 150-1John EnnisDialed In
Overstep150-1120-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Senbei150-1150-1Christophe ClémentCandy Ride
Straight Up G150-1125-1Richard BaltasStraight Fire
Strava150-1100-1Dallas StewartInto Mischief
Strike Hard150-1135-1Matthew WilliamsFlashback
Surfer Dude150-1 Dallas StewartCurlin
Swing Shift150-1135-1Midnight FormTodd Pletcher
Affable Monarch 175-1Jorge DuarteArrogate
Ben Diesel175-1100-1Dallas StewartWill Take Charge
Durante175-1175-1Doug O'NeillDistorted Humor
Fromanothamutha150-1175-1Ray HandalUnified
Glacial 175-1Norm CasseFrosted
Gunite175-1  55-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Home Brew175-1125-1Brad CoxStreet Sense
Howling Time175-1  60-1Dale RomansNot This Time
Longshadow 175-1Kelsey DannerTapiture
Page One 175-1Brad CoxPractical Joke
Power Agenda 175-1Todd PletcherNyquist
Quick to Blame175-1 Brad CoxBlame
Rockefeller175-1  55-1Bob BaffertMedaglia d'Oro
Tengo Mis Papeles 175-1Bret CalhounMy Golden Song
Trafalgar175-1  90-1Al Stall Jr.Lord Nelson
Volcanic175-1150-1Mark CasseViolence
Cajun's Magic (g)180-1100-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
American Xperiment100-1200-1Steve AsmussenNyquist
Authorize200-1150-1Bill MottCurlin
Ava K's Boy 200-1Carlos MartínClassic Empire
Blue Kentucky (g)200-1200-1Wayne CatalanoInclude
Bochombo 200-1Luis MéndezStreet Boss
Bodock200-1 Brad CoxStreet Boss
Coinage 200-1Mark CasseTapit
Dance Code 200-1Juan VázquezHonor Code
Dean Delivers (g)  90-1200-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Fight Your Corner 200-1Tony MargottaFrosted
Great Escape200-1175-1Rodolphe BrissetMidnight Storm
Gunfighter200-1 Brad CoxGhostzapper
Higher Standard200-1 Tom AmossInto Mischief
Joe200-1150-1Mike TrombettaDeclaration of War
King Cab (g) 200-1Eddie Plesa Jr.Noble Bird
Murray200-1  75-1Bob BaffertStreet Sense
Octane (g)200-1  60-1Carlos DavidBrethren
Shipsational200-1100-1Ed BarkerMidshipman
Speaking (g) 200-1Eddie Owens Jr.Mr Speaker
Spin Wheel200-1 Rusty ArnoldHard Spun
Stolen Base 200-1Mike MakerBodemeister
Trust Our Journey 200-1Carlos DavidAmerican Pharoah
Un Ojo (g)200-1 Tony DutrowLaoban
A. P.'s Secret225-1150-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Cupid
Double Thunder225-1100-1Todd PletcherSuper Saver
Feelthebeat 225-1Norman McKnightCupid
Gilded Ruler225-1 Brad CoxInto Mischief
Insolito225-1 Brad CoxConnect
Joker Boy 225-1Brian KorinerPractical Joke
Kid Corleone225-1150-1Doug O'NeillShackleford
Little Vic225-1150-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaPractical Joke
Witty (g)225-1 McLane HendriksGreat Notion
Avant Glory 250-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Khozan
Belgrade250-1150-1Brendan WalshHard Spun
Bet On Mookie 250-1Ruben AlvaradoUncaptured
Bourbon Heist250-1  85-1Ian WilkesPractical Joke
Dr. Perry250-1125-1Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Elusive Target 250-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Forced Ranking250-1150-1Chad BrownMastery
Franklin One Star (g)250-1 Doug O'NeillDanzing Candy
Full Disclosure (g) 250-1Michael YatesCajun Breeze
H P Moon (r)250-1125-1Lacey GaudetMalibu Moon
Judge Davis250-1225-1Shug McGaugheyDistorted Humor
Kavod250-1175-1Jim ChapmanLea
Key Point250-1125-1Chad BrownInto Mischief
Kupuna250-1150-1Bret CalhounHard Spun
Lucky Boss 250-1Ken McPeekStreet Boss
Montebello250-1150-1Bob BaffertCurlin
On the Come Up 250-1Kelly BreenMission Impazible
Overbore 140-1Wesley WardSpeightstown
Peaceful Waters250-1 Al Stall Jr.Dialed In
Presidential250-1 Steve AsmussenPioneerof the Nile
Stellar Tap250-1125-1Steve AsmussenTapit
Tejano Twist (g)250-1 Bret CalhounPractical Joke
Trademark (g)250-1125-1Vicki OliverUpstart
Unpredictable Bay250-1175-1Al AliCairo Prince
Vivar350-1 Brad CoxCairo Prince
What In Blazes 250-1Jerry HollendorferStraight Fire
Whittington Park 250-1Brad CoxMidnight Lute
Practical Coach 275-1Butch ReidPractical Joke
Seal Beach275-1 Mike MakerMidshipman
Trip to Spain 275-1Jamey ThomasStay Thirsty
Back to Normal300-1 Mike MakerLiam's Map
Barossa300-1150-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Cattin300-1200-1Ralph NicksNeolithic
Chattalot300-1150-1Steve AsmussenMidnight Lute
Classic Moment300-1150-1Steve AsmussenClassic Empire
Combustion300-1 Keizo ItoDiscreet Cat
Cool Papa G300-1250-1Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Costa Terra300-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Deal Go Down 300-1Mark CasseCairo Prince
Desert Ruler 300-1Daniel PitaCandy Ride
Don't Wait Up300-1150-1Tony DutrowUpstart
Freelancer300-1250-1Brendan WalshMedaglia d'Oro
Geno300-1 David DonkBig Brown
Graphic Detail300-1200-1Bill MottPractical Joke
Ignitis300-1225-1D. Wayne LukasNyquist
Impressionist (g)300-1150-1Rob AtrasMission Impazible
Kaely's Brother300-1250-1Brad CoxTwirling Candy
Kamui300-1125-1Bob BaffertQuality Road
Kevin's Folly300-1200-1Tom AmossDistorted Humor
Lightening Larry300-1175-1Jeff EnglerUncaptured
Local Motive (g)300-1 John Salzman Jr.Divining Rod
Midnight Chrome300-1 Tyler ServisCalifornia Chrome
Of a Revolution300-1200-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Maclean's Music
Old Town Road300-1 Wesley WardClassic Empire
Osbourne (g)300-1200-1Ron MoquettTapiture
Red Knobs300-1 Dale RomansUnion Rags
Red Run300-1150-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Rewire (g)300-1 Brad CoxMohaymen
Rock N Rye300-1225-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Roger McQueen300-1135-1Larry RivelliUnified
Rotknee300-1200-1Mike MakerRunhappy
Run Curtis Run300-1300-1Mike MakerSummer Front
Skippylongstocking300-1275-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Exaggerator
Sky and Sand300-1 Steve AsmussenMidshipman
So Determined300-1200-1Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Triple Elvis300-1 Chad BrownInto Mischief
Vodka N Water300-1 Steve AsmussenFed Biz
Winterwood300-1 Rodolphe BrissetMaclean's Music
Headline Report (g)325-1135-1Wesley WardGormley
Hot Rod Rumble (g)325-1 Steve AsmussenMidnight Storm
Legendary Lore325-1250-1Bill MoreyPractical Joke
Texas Red Hot325-1175-1Randy MorseTexas Red
All in Sync350-1 Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Alottahope350-1 John RobbEditorial
Aquitania Arrival (g) 350-1Rene AmescuaCarpe Diem
Capt. Candy (g)350-1 Anthony PecoraroImagining
Churchtown (g)350-1 Roger AttfieldAir Force Blue
Cogburn350-1125-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Concept350-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Cooke Creek350-1200-1Jeremiah O'DwyerUncle Mo
Duke of Love350-1 Josie CarrollCupid
El Pando350-1100-1Jaylan ClaryOutwork
Enbarr350-1125-1Bob BaffertBrody's Cause
Fan the Fire350-1200-1Mike MakerHard Spun
Fast Draw Munnings350-1 Jeff MullinsMunnings
Finneus350-1125-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Hitting Bombs350-1 Brian LynchGun Runner
Hoist the Gold300-1350-1Dallas StewartMineshaft
Hope In Him 350-1Joe OrsenoChitu
Husband Material350-1 Jimmy TonerAmerican Pharoah
Ironstone350-1 Willie ArmataMr Speaker
Life Is Great350-1175-1Bob KlesarisTapiture
Mamzooj350-1 Dan PeitzDaaher
Midnight Worker350-1225-1Todd PletcherOutwork
Mr. Mox (g) 350-1Jamie NessDivining Rod
Oubabe350-1 John SadlerHe Be Fire N Ice
Pressure350-1225-1Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Smarten Up350-1 Alfredo VelázquezAmerican Freedom
Speaking Scout350-1 Graham MotionMr Speaker
Ten Gauge350-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Tops the Chart (g) 350-1Jorge DuarteMaclean's Music
Twenty Four Mamba350-1300-1Mark CasseClassic Empire
Underhill's Tab350-1 Al Stall Jr.Unified
Unified Report 350-1Dallas StewartUnified
Union Train350-1160-1John ShirreffsUnion Rags
Unique Unions (g)350-1 Rick SchosbergUnion Jackson
Almanzo400-1 Brad CoxTapit
American Sanctuary400-1 Chris DavisAmerican Freedom
Annapolis400-1150-1Todd PletcherWar Front
B Sudd400-1250-1Dallas StewartJimmy Creed
Baladi400-1300-1Brendan WalshPioneerof the Nile
Bali's Shade400-1 Rudy RodríguezBal a Bali
Barese400-1200-1Mike MakerLaoban
Big Papa Steve400-1 Reid FranceMr. Big
Bourbon's Hope (g)400-1250-1Charlton BakerExaggerator
Brigadier General400-1 Dallas StewartStreet Sense
Bron and Brow400-1 Ruben AlvaradoGormley
Bureau400-1 Ron MoquettMastery
Cairama400-1300-1Steve AsmussenCairo Prince
Call Me Jamal (g)400-1 Mike PuhichMalibu Moon
Candy Landing (r)400-1200-1Brendan WalshTwirling Candy
Daufuskie Island400-1250-1Jeremiah EnglehartGoldencents
Guntown400-1175-1Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Hagler400-1200-1Rudy RodríguezTapiture
Kenner400-1175-1Jamie NessLaoban
Line Change400-1200-1Mike StidhamNyquist
Matt Doyle400-1 Chad SummersViolence
Mob Boss400-1 Jeff BondeSky Mesa
Naval Aviator400-1 Brad CoxTapit
Nineties Country400-1150-1Brad CoxConnect
O Captain400-1150-1Gustavo DelgadoCarpe Diem
Ohtwoohthreefive400-1 George WeaverUnion Rags
Ruggs400-1 Ron MoquettGun Runner
Shastree400-1275-1Teresa PompayStreet Sense
Spuntacular400-1300-1Juan Carlos ÁvilaHard Spun
Street Art 400-1Keith DesormeauxStreet Boss
Thirsty Always400-1175-1Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Tough to Tame400-1200-1Chris DavisSpeightster
Who Hoo Thats Me400-1275-1Jorge AbreuKeen Ice
Zatip400-1125-1Graham MotionTapit
Forty Stripes450-1350-1Jerry HollendorferMunnings
Baytown Frosty 300-1Paul McEnteeFrosted
Chileno500-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Immoral (g)500-1 Brittany RussellInto Mischief
On Thin Ice500-1 Mark CasseMore Than Ready
Ottoman Empire500-1 Tom AmossClassic Empire
Shamayim500-1 Rosa RamírezCrema d'Oro
f-Filly g-Gelding r-Ridgling    
Circa: Circa Sportsbook    
C-WH: Caesars at William Hill    
Dropped by Circa:    
  Affable Monarch400-1   
  Bueno Bueno500-1   
  Dakota Gold350-1   
  Dance Code400-1   
  Degree of Risk (r)400-1   
  Eloquist500-1   
  Hicksy325-1   
  Hope In Him400-1   
  Misbehaved350-1   
  Mr Jefferson300-1   
  Mumayaz500-1   
  My Prankster125-1   
  Pec Tacular400-1   
  Red Danger300-1   
  Revenir (g)500-1   
  Rich Strike500-1   
  Rod Two Rod500-1   
  Rowdy Rascal (g)500-1   
  Speaking (g)400-1   
  Unbridled Bomber350-1   
  Unified Report400-1   
  Waita Minute Hayes400-1   
  Wit  30-1  

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