2021 Breeders' Futurity: Odds and analysis
As usual, the Grade 1, $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Saturday offers a large field with multiple directions for handicappers to go. This edition of the 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 2-year-olds features 13 entries.
At first glance, predicting which horse the public will favor is difficult. Although Classic Causeway gives the impression of an exciting runner, he is drawn wide in Post 13. Other candidates to become the favorite might include Don’t Wait Up and Stellar Tap.
The Breeders’ Futurity is carded as race 9 with a post time of 5:15 EDT. Odds are by Horse Racing Nation.
1. Double Thunder, 10-1 (Super Saver – Todd Pletcher/Paco Lopez – 4: 3-0-0 - $248,850): The son of Super Saver rebounded from a fourth-place finish in the Saratoga Special (G2) to win the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. It is possible the stretchout to one mile brought out a career-high 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, or maybe he was due to step forward anyway as a horse with three races under his belt before the Sapling. At least he takes dirt in the face well, as shown by his inside trip at Monmouth. Double Thunder might be a step below the right speed figure to win, but he is still developing and hitting the board is possible. Use underneath.
2. Mr. Bouma, 30-1 (Candy Ride – Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie – 2: 1-0-0 - $33,150): After finishing a well-beaten fourth in his career debut at Ellis Park, Mr. Bouma rebounded with a win on the same course. But he broke his maiden by only a neck, with an 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While Romans sometimes surprises bettors and blows up the board with a long shot, this one looks too slow. Toss.
3. Stellar Tap, 9-2 (Tapit – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 2: 1-0-0 - $63,662): If handicappers are in a forgiving mood, they could reason that Stellar Tap did not run poorly in his fifth-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). He lost by only three lengths after failing to counter Major General to his outside. In Stellar Tap’s career debut at Saratoga, he blew the field away by 5 1/4 lengths. As a son of Tapit out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, he is supposed to handle route distances too. With that said, he might attract too much attention given his connections. Also, good pedigree or not, Stellar Tap needs to prove himself in a two-turn route. Use underneath.
4. Seal Beach, 15-1 (Midshipman – Michael Maker/Julien Leparoux – 3: 0-2-1 - $56,000): This maiden shows two seconds and one third in three starts. Betting a maiden in a stakes race is not a bad idea if the connections are reliable. In this case, trainer Michael Maker seems like a trainer who does not shoot high without a reason. On paper, though, this colt needs to run faster to compete for the win spot. Two starts ago at Saratoga, he lost by 10 lengths to My Prankster, who was fourth in the Champagne Stakes (G1) in his next start. Then on Sept. 18 at Churchill Downs, Seal Beach lost by 2 1/4 lengths to Great Escape, who is in this race as well. Maybe consider him in the third and fourth slots. Use underneath.
5. Don’t Wait Up, 7-2 (Upstart – Anthony Dutrow/John Velazquez – 2: 1-1-0 - $75,000): This Upstart colt shows two good efforts in two starts at Saratoga. In his career debut, Don’t Wait Up came closing to lose by a nose to Power Agenda, who was fifth with some trouble in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Don’t Wait Up then broke his maiden over mud on Sept. 6 by two lengths over Commandperformance after setting the pace and finishing strongly. Sure, Don’t Wait Up had a comfortable lead, but does every horse need to show a troubled trip? Commandperformance went on to finish an excellent second to Jack Christopher in the Champagne Stakes (G1) with a 116 on TimeformUS.
Don’t Wait Up earned a 102 for his maiden victory, and a similar step forward is possible. But can he route? Upstart is fine as a route sire and the dam Lovely Marissa is a half-sister to the active Nasty, a stakes-winning turf router. Although the stretchout remains a lingering concern, as well as the switch back to fast dirt, Don’t Wait Up is the top choice in this open race. The pick.
6. Rattle N Roll, 10-1 (Connect – Kenneth McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 3: 1-0-1 - $79,460): In his third start, Rattle N Roll broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by three lengths. He shows only an 86 on TimeformUS for the winning effort, but Rattle N Roll encountered traffic on the far turn while moving into a slow pace. Sometimes a slow pace hides the true abilities of horses and makes the final speed figure useless for handicapping purposes.
Two starts ago in a nine-furlong maiden race at Saratoga, he bolted on the second turn and was pulled up. Three starts ago in a six-furlong sprint, he made a closing move to finish third by five lengths to Gunite, who faded to fifth in the Champagne last weekend. Based on the most recent effort, he might close well enough with a fast pace to hit the board. Use underneath.
7. American Sanctuary, 30-1 (American Freedom – Christopher Davis/Sophie Doyle – 4: 1-2-0 - $79,550): After making a sweeping move and opening a 1 1/2-length lead in the Sapling at Monmouth, American Sanctuary let Double Thunder pass him easily in the stretch. Although the margin was half a length at the end, Paco Lopez eased Double Thunder in the last few strides and allowed the gap to appear close. On paper and from a visual standpoint, this runner is too slow. Toss.
8. King Curlin, 50-1 (Curlin – Brittany Vanden Berg/Christopher Emigh – 1: 0-1-0 - $27,000): With only one turf start on record, this Curlin colt is a tough one to analyze. He did close well to finish second in that one-mile turf race at Kentucky Downs. The question is whether King Curlin can run on dirt at this high of a level. Reviewing the dam Blingismything’s record does not add any confidence, as she ran as a turf router who won the 2015 Wilshire Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. King Curlin needs to prove himself on this surface before trusting him. Toss.
9. Great Escape, 12-1 (Midnight Storm – Rodolphe Brisset/Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 1-1-0 - $79,660): Great Escape ran a closing second in his career debut at Ellis Park before moving forward at Churchill Downs and breaking his maiden on Sept. 18 by 2 1/4 lengths. He earned a 99 on TimeformUS for the winning effort, which is respectable for a second career start and not far off the best horses in this race. From watching the replay, though, Great Escape was urged hard to get by Seal Beach in the stretch. Now he faces tougher opponents in this spot. Winning appears slightly out of reach, but consider him for an underneath position. Use underneath.
10. Mac’s Time, 20-1 (Not This Time – Dale Romans/Joseph Talamo – 2: 1-0-0 - $32,130): Both of Mac’s Time’s races came at Ellis Park, and he won by half a length on Sept. 4 with a 99 on TimeformUS. Mac’s Time shows the same figure as Great Escape, but the five-horse field he beat appears weak in retrospect. The runner-up Ignitis went on to finish third by 4 1/4 lengths in a Churchill Downs maiden race. Also, Chileno went on to run fourth by 4 3/4 lengths in a separate Churchill Downs maiden race. While Romans can pop the board with a big price every now and then, Mac’s Time fails to make the cut in this analysis. Toss.
11. Costa Terra, 15-1 (Gun Runner – Steven Asmussen/Francisco Arrieta – 2: 1-0-1 - $42,900): This Gun Runner colt shows an excellent pedigree for trainer Steve Asmussen. On the dam side, Costa Terra is a son of Teardrop, a half-sister to Pyro. Pyro won $1.6 million in his career, including the 2009 Forego Stakes (G1). At one point on the 2008 Derby trail, Pyro sat on top of many lists after his wins in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2).
Costa Terra has more developing to do if he wants to emulate Pyro. He broke his maiden at Ellis Park on July 1 by a nose with an 86 on TimeformUS and then ran a closing third in the Ellis Park Juvenile. He lost by half a length to Roger McQueen, who was a well-beaten ninth in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) in his next start. On paper, the task is too difficult. Toss.
12. Kevin’s Folly, 30-1 (Distorted Humor – Thomas Amoss/Flavien Pratt – 2: 1-0-1 - $91,000): Kevin’s Folly broke his maiden at Saratoga in his career debut on July 31 by 1 1/2 lengths over a Pletcher colt named Master Game. He earned only an 84 on TimeformUS for the win. When Kevin’s Folly tried the Hopeful at Saratoga, he finished third by 8 3/4 lengths behind Gunite and three lengths behind Wit in second. Wit was a major disappointment in the Champagne in his next start, finishing a well-beaten third. While Kevin’s Folly’s TimeformUS figure improved to a 98 in that third-place finish, he needs to show more before trusting him. Toss.
13. Classic Causeway, 3-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Brian Lynch/Jose Ortiz – 1: 1-0-0 - $55,000): His maiden win is excellent. Classic Causeway took command of the lead and overpowered the field by drawing clear under mild urging in the stretch for a 6 1/2-length win. He shows a field-high 111 on TimeformUS for the romp. On the negative side, the price is likely short on this colt, given how impressively he won. Also, he stretches out to 1 1/16 miles and tries two turns for the first time.
Classic Causeway’s pedigree looks good for routing, especially as a son of Giant’s Causeway, but it stinks as a bettor to take a short price on a runner attempting something new. Plus, he must clear the field from Post 13 or get caught wide on the first turn. This is an exciting horse who can possibly overcome the obstacles in front of him. He deserves a spot in multi-race wagers, especially in Pick 4 wagers. It could turn out differently, but the public probably will overbet this talented speed horse. From a win bet standpoint, there is a more attractive option in Don’t Wait Up, who is drawn better and may offer more value. Win contender.
Conclusion:
Don’t Wait Up is the top selection. From Post 5, jockey John Velazquez can easily decide whether to flash his mount’s speed or opt to play the stalker role.
He might offer enough value for a win or place bet. Alternatively, bettors also can try an exacta wheel with Don’t Wait Up on top and Double Thunder and Rattle N Roll underneath. Double Thunder and Rattle N Roll show the best Late Pace Ratings on TimeformUS in the field, and a fast pace should result in them closing well.
Use Classic Causeway along with Don’t Wait Up in multi-race wagers.
Suggested plays
Win: 5
Exacta wheel: 5 / 1,6