1st to last: Ranking the 2025 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

One might think they are looking at the list of accomplishments for the Breeders' Cup Classic when they take a look at the 2025 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile field. The race features a former Breeders' Cup Classic champ, a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner, a Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. It also featured 2024 Kentucky Derby victor Mystik Dan, but trainer Kenny McPeek said he would be a veterinarian's scratch.

None of those runners was the morning-line favorite. That is because current form is what matters most, and no one in this race is in better form than Nysos. Below I analyze all 10 horses in this year's Dirt Mile, ranking them from first to last.

1. Nysos. On a day with so many opportunities to find value, it can be easy to overthink the obvious. Do not overthink the obvious in this race. Nysos is one of the few reliable singles of the day. His lone loss in six career starts came by a neck in the best sprint race off the year off of a 15-month layoff. If he can overcome that type of layoff to almost win a race of that caliber, then he can win this race after a minor setback that cost him a start in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Ability never has been a question with Nysos. Distance and health have been the lingering concerns. Although I think he might be able to handle the Classic distance, there is no question that he can handle a mile. A two-turn mile is the perfect layout for this colt. In regard to his soundness, Bob Baffert would not run a horse as valuable as this if he did not think he was sound.

Nysos never has been asked for a drop in his five wins, and that trend may continue on Saturday. He is the best horse running at his best distance in a race that will set up ideally for him as his two stablemates hound Full Serrano up front.

2. Full Serrano. This is not an easy assignment, but I have a ton of respect for the defending champion. He is undefeated in three starts at a mile in America, including a strong win in this race last year. He has had to earn every win, setting fast early fractions in each race. I was a tad disappointed that he lost to Nevada Beach in the Goodwood Stakes (G1), but that race was beyond his best distance and he is back to his wheelhouse on Saturday. Tactics will play a role in this race as Baffert surely will keep Nysos' biggest threat busy with Citizen Bull, a need-the-lead type, and Goal Oriented, a presser. Full Serrano is good enough to withstand that pressure and likely will hold off everyone but Nysos. 

3. Will Take It. I found this race to be pretty chalky up top, and it would be nice to sneak this 30-1 shot into the bottom of the exotics to spice up the payouts. His last race was poor without a visible excuse, but if you give him a pass for that effort then his form really brightens. He had four wins and two seconds in six prior starts this year, and he kept running better as his competition got tougher. He also won two of those races at a mile. This colt is working very well since his last start and is a closer in a race that should feature a very fast early pace. He is a must-use in trifecta and superfecta wagers. 

4. White Abarrio. This $7 million earner is such a cool horse, but it is likely that his best days are behind him. He oozes with class and should be able to sit a nice trip behind a hot pace. Those factors will help carry him to a decent finish, but it is hard to see him make serious noise in his current form. Even though he has been facing elite company, it is concerning to see a horse of his quality suddenly have no punch at the end of races.

5. Tumbarumba. This is a shining example of an honest gelding. He has run no worse than fourth in 19 races over a fast dirt track. He ran fourth last year in the Dirt Mile and with that said, he probably should be ranked higher. But this is such a tough race. If this was a one-turn mile, I would elevate his chances a bit more. He will give it his all, but I am not sure it will be quite enough. 

6. Goal Oriented. This talented 3-year-old might be a factor in a race like this next year, but the experience edge he is giving to his rivals is too much to overcome. He will be chasing a fast pace and will be hard pressed to hang around late.

7. Chancer McPatrick. Before the Woody Stephans Stakes (G1) this summer, a friend asked me if I liked Chancer McPatrick or Raging Bull in that race. I told him that they might be the two most overrated horses in the sport. That might be harsh, but they did in fact run like it that day, and they have done little since to change my opinion. Chancer McPatrick is better at one turn, has never faced older, has not improved as a 3-year-old and never has run a speed figure that would make him competitive, but people will bet him because it is Chad Brown. 

8. Citizen Bull. Not much has gone right for the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner since his win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) in February. He was awful in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby, was average in the Woody Stephens (G1) and then returned to the winner's circle in the Shared Belief Stakes in a race in which he defeated all of two rivals. He has not improved as a 3-year-old and needs the lead to run well. He will not get the lead with Full Serrano in this race, but people will bet him because it is Bob Baffert. 

9. Touch of Destiny. Meet the only undefeated runner in this field. His good form came in Uruguay, and this is a monumental step up in class. It also complicates matters that he has not run since June. This is simply too tough of a spot, and it appears from the limited information available that he is a front-runner. He will have plenty of company if he can reach the lead against this field.