1st to last: Ranking Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar

Friday’s Del Mar card ends with arguably the best of the five 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup events, the Juvenile Turf.

Aidan O’Brien’s classy colt Gstaad likely will be favored on the strength of three consecutive runner-up finishes at the Group 1 level. This will be far from a walk in the park, however, as he will face a full field of improving runners from around the world.

Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025: Ranking the field 1st to last

This is how Gstaad and his 13 rivals should fare going first to last.

1. North Coast. So much attention will be paid to Gstaad that O’Brien’s own son could upstage him. Joseph O’Brien’s colt has been primed for this race. He already has two starts and a win around left-handed turns and has experience running a mile when finishing second in July. He was caught on a yielding turf course last time. If one forgives that effort, this colt fits with his Europe counterparts, probably at a better price. 

2. Outfielder. Wesley Ward’s colt already has run at Churchill Downs, in France and on the dirt in just three lifetime starts. Though his pattern is unusual, his ability is evident. He dominated his rivals on debut and held his own in France after an awkward start, finishing just two lengths behind Gstaad. He returned to America and won nicely on the dirt after having his blinkers removed. He returns to turf and stretches for the first time. He is bred to handle the distance increase and likely will be the pacesetter. He will take some catching and might forget to stop. 

3. Gstaad. He easily could win this race, and I will include this colt on most of my multi-race exotic wagers, but I do feel other runners will present better value. Just because he is the most talented horse in the race does not mean he is in the right spot. He ran a tough race just three weeks ago and could regress a bit while shipping across the world on a quick turnaround. He also has not raced beyond seven furlongs and is not particularly bred to stretch. If he does not regress and if he handles the distance, then he will win. His Group 2 win in Ascot was strong, and he kept the best company in the field when narrowly missing in three consecutive Group 1s.

4. Argos. Riley Mott’s son of Nyquist brings an improving pattern into this race. He had two sprints and then stretched beautifully, winning the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine over Wild Desert, Charlie Appleby’s talented colt. Wild Desert might have been best that day, but he would have been one of the favorites in this race and this colt deserves credit for defeating him. If the Europeans do not show up with their best, then he could pull off a mild upset. 

5. Hey Nay Nay. It is hard to trust a California turf runner in any Breeders’ Cup race, but this colt has been awfully impressive in all three of his starts. He has nice tactical speed and should sit just off Outfielder early. He has not been facing much, but he might be good enough for that not to matter, and he already owns a win over this turf course.

6. Bottas. Miguel Clément’s colt is likely to be among the top choices in this race after his win in the Pilgrim Stakes (G2) last out. He is another runner who could be right in the mix with only a slight move forward. The only concern is the level of competition he defeated in his stakes debut. The second- and third-place finishers, also in this race, are still maidens. 

7. Street Beast. It is tough to get a read on this colt. He looked like an outsider based on his first two starts, but his powerful win last out in his first start at a mile deserves a closer look. If the win was a product of him wanting to route, then he could make an impact in this race. It also is possible that the win was a result of his love for the quirky Kentucky Downs course or the product of facing a weak field.

8. Heeere’s Johnny. This colt continues to improve but still is a maiden after four career starts. He almost broke through against Bottas in the Pilgrim Stakes and could turn the tables Friday. Unfortunately for him, Bottas might not be his biggest challenge in this race.

9. Turf Star. According to Daily Racing Form, his Beyer Speed Figure jumped by 21 points in the Bourbon (G2), where he had every chance to win but came up a bit short. I do not believe this year’s Bourbon Stakes was a strong prep, and Graham Motion’s colt might find the waters too deep here.

10. Let’s Be Frank. Mike Maker’s colt also has yet to find the winner’s circle but has room to grow after just two starts. The deep closer would have to take another large step forward to contend with this strong international cast. 

11. Ardisia. This Europe shipper already has five wins and brings a load of experience to this race. I do not like the fact he already has made 11 starts as a 2-year-old without running beyond six furlongs. He also ran just two weeks ago. The recent start and inexperience at a mile make it seems like this race was an afterthought rather than a goal.

12. Stark Contrast. Michael McCarthy’s colt owns two wins at the distance and a win over the track, but has faced nothing of consequence in those races, including a win against just four rivals in the Zuma Beach Stakes (G3). The local hopeful would be a surprise.

13. Gordon Pass. He closed well to be third at 52-1 in the Bourbon and might be a similar price in this race. Though he is heading in the right direction, he would need a pace meltdown to be a factor against better competition.

An edit has been made to exclude Humidity, who was pre-entered, but did not make the trip over for this race.