1 weekend race is more likely to yield Kentucky Derby winner

Perception often becomes reality – except when it comes to history’s validation of how the Kentucky Derby’s biggest preps have been won and whether they carry much influence into America’s biggest race.

Eight races worth 100-40-20-10 Derby qualifying points will be run the next three Saturdays. Two, the Louisiana Derby (G2) and the UAE Derby (G2), are this weekend. The Sunland Park Derby (G3), a 50-20-10-5 prep, will be run Sunday.

The top two in the Saturday races and the winner Sunday are virtually assured of running for the roses May 7. History says one of the races is more likely to produce a Kentucky Derby winner than the other two combined. But that is only because recent reality altered the old perception.

Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

With its forever-long, 449-yard homestretch, the New Orleans track has a reputation for being kind to closers. But lately, the biggest annual race at Fair Grounds has been dominated by horses who are on or near the early lead.

From Vicar’s in Trouble with his gate-to-wire victory in 2014 to Hot Rod Charlie’s near duplication last year, forward-going horses who were never more than two lengths behind at any call have won the eight of the last 13 runnings of the Louisiana Derby.

These were the winners of every renewal since 2000. They include their places at each call with lengths behind, according to Equibase.

This recent pattern plays right into the style of Epicenter, who got a loose lead and won last month’s Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. The colt sired by Not This Time and trained by Steve Asmussen is the 7-5 morning-line favorite Saturday’s Louisiana Derby.

Another perception of the Louisiana Derby was that, of the six biggest 100-40-20-10 point preps with the longest traditions, it was the least likely to produce a winner at Churchill Downs. Thanks to recent stewards rulings, that image has been reversed.

With the late Medina Spirit’s disqualification last month and Mandaloun’s promotion to become the 2021 winner, that meant four of the top five finishers last May 7 in Louisville came out of the Louisiana Derby, which was extended from 1 1/8 to 1 3/16 miles two years ago.

Throw in Country House’s promotion when Maximum Security was DQ’d in 2019, and that means two of the last three winners came out of the Fair Grounds spring.

Before that, only Black Gold in 1924, Grindstone in 1996 and Funny Cide in 2003 used the Louisiana Derby as a steppingstone to a successful run for the roses.

Since 2000, Louisiana Derby graduates have gone 58: 3-4-4 in the Kentucky Derby. They are shown here with their Quirin Speed Points, provided by Brisnet, before their starts at Churchill Downs.

Since the qualifying-points system was established for the 2013 Kentucky Derby, six of the seven Louisiana Derby runners who went on to finish in the money at Churchill had a mid-pack (P) or closing (S) style. That actually made them exceptions to the rule that forwardly placed horses do better in Louisville than those coming from off the early pace.

UAE Derby, Meydan

There are 36 U.S. prep races for the Kentucky Derby, seven more in Europe and four in Japan. The only qualifier in the Middle East, Saturday’s UAE Derby (G2), carries 100-40-20-10 points.

It also carries a big, fat zero.

That is the number of horses who have come out of the Meydan race to deliver at Churchill Downs. That does not simply mean zero wins in the Kentucky Derby but also zero contributions to the superfecta. The best finish by Dubai horse in Louisville came in 2011, when UAE Derby runner-up Master of Hounds finished fifth.

Horses going forward early have been the most successful in winning the 1 3/16-mile race at Meydan. Because the race is not run in North America, Quirin Speed Points are unavailable for the UAE Derby. Styles shown below are based on trip notes from Racing Post charts since the race began in 2000.

Plus Que Parfait in 2019 was the only horse among the last nine UAE Derby winners who did not set or stalk the early pace.

Saudi Derby (G3) winner Pinehurst, a Bob Baffert-trained colt who is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby, fits the profile of a potential pacesetter in Saturday’s renewal.

Sunland Park Derby, Sunland Park

It could be said this 1 1/8-mile race has been dining out on the Mine That Bird story for going on 13 years. It was that long ago when the little gelding finished fourth in New Mexico’s signature wintertime race before his rail-hugging, 50-1 victory with jockey Calvin Borel in the slop at Churchill Downs.

Since the race began in 2003, the Sunland Park Derby has produced only one other horse who hit the board in Kentucky. That was Firing Line, who finished second at Churchill Downs to eventual Triple Crown champion American Pharaoh.

Before COVID restrictions canceled the last two runnings of the Sunland Derby, three consecutive winners had come from off the pace to win it.

Slow Down Andy, Sunday’s 2-1 morning-line favorite, went from last to first for trainer Doug O’Neill to win last fall in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He was never better than fifth when he faded to finish sixth to Epicenter in the Risen Star.