1’s are wild: Aqueduct had a golden rail holiday weekend

There are three things that should not be brought up in polite conversation. Politics, religion and a confirmed rail bias at a racetrack.

No doubt about it. Nearly every expert who discussed it said Aqueduct had one during President’s Day weekend.

“Even races that were not won by a horse going wire to wire, they were won by a horse that had spent an appreciable time on the rail,” said Nick Tammaro, a seven-time qualifier for the National Horseplayers Championship. “It was very pronounced and very significant, and a number of jockeys adjusted to it.”

Andy Serling certainly noticed. In his daily Track Trends column, the New York Racing Association’s no-nonsense TV analyst had his finger on the pulse of it. Look at what he wrote after the races Saturday: “The rail was a distinct advantage, not just for front runners, and spending at least a significant part of the race inside was a virtual necessity for success.”

And then Sunday. “The rail was once again an extreme advantage. Strong bias.

And again Monday. “The rail continues to be a significant advantage.”

Dear Diary, indeed.

“It happens, you know?” Serling said in a Tuesday morning radio interview on Steve Byk’s At the Races. “It doesn’t happen that often. I was surprised that it stuck around for three days. It’s winter. I imagine we’ll have a different racetrack by the time we get back to racing. Most of the time the track has been fair.”

Attempts to get a comment from Glen Kozak, the NYRA vice president in charge of track maintenance, were unsuccessful Tuesday. It is safe to say, however, that his team has faced a lot of challenges this winter, especially with recent weeks of off-and-on snowstorms, cold rain and freezing wind at Aqueduct.

“I know that in the winter it can be difficult to do a lot of maintenance on the track,” said David Aragona, the TimeformUS analyst who writes the morning line at Aqueduct. “I know when the temperatures are so cold, it’s hard to put a lot of water on the track.”

Still, a whole weekend with a gold rail should be unusual, shouldn’t it?

“This is the third instance this winter of it being pretty pronounced and pretty significant,” said Tammaro, who bets the races from his home base in Houston. “It seems to have not been adjusted day to day. I think the track maintenance crew is very, very good. We don’t see a bias carry over day to day. But these were three days that were really pronounced strong inside.”

Consider how the “1” horses did during the weekend at Aqueduct. They won races 5-7 Saturday for a modest $1 Pick 3 payout of $26. Sunday they won races 2, 3, 5 and 6 to pay $29 and $17.90 on daily doubles. Monday they won races 1, 4, 5 and 6 with a Pick 3 paying $129.25. There was actually another 1-1-1 Pick 3 that paid $104.25 that included a “1A” that broke from post 7 – and still got inside to win the third race.

It was not just the draw, though. The word “inside” was prominent in the trip comments and footnotes from Equibase. It showed up for 8 of 9 winners Saturday, 6 of 9 Sunday and 6 of 8 Monday. That included horses that drew outside. Chalk up those winning trips to some savvy riders.

“The one jockey that was most consistent in recognizing it was Trevor McCarthy,” Tammaro said. “He’s new to the colony, and he seemed very astute and seemed to pick up on it. Eric Cancel seemed to pick up on it very quickly as well.”

Cancel really had the stats to show for it, winning seven times from Saturday to Monday with seven seconds and a third out of 22 starts. McCarthy had two wins, four seconds and two thirds from 16 mounts.

There was one loud dissenting voice, though. Handicapper and workout analyst Bruno De Julio looked at one head-on replay after another during his weekly webinar Tuesday night. To say he was not convinced was to put it mildly.

“The golden rail is something that handicappers build up in their own mind,” said De Julio, who is based this winter in Delray Beach, Fla. “They think the horse is on the rail just because he was inside. What happens is speed gets out on the front end, and it gravitates toward the inside. Sometimes they drift off the inside down the stretch, they end up in the 5-path, and people say it’s a golden rail. Well, it can’t be, because a golden rail means they had to be on that rail the entire time.”

De Julio pointed to fields thin on talent being a bigger reason for what happened in New York during the weekend. He said that ought to be quantified in the speed figures that come out of the weekend’s races. Firm in the belief there was a rail bias, Aragona said the challenge will be adjusting those ratings not only for horses that seized on the perceived advantage but those that did well despite racing to the outside.

“It’s a phenomenon that you do see where horses that ride the rail for the majority of their trips are able to achieve the speed figures that are so much higher than what they have previously gotten in their careers,” Aragona said. “Some other horses that look very visually impressive maybe were not on the rail for enough time during these races, and they get figures that are maybe a little underwhelming.”

Take the example of Nicky the Vest, the Runhappy colt that won Sunday’s Gander Stakes by 11 3/4 lengths with jockey Kendrick Carmouche geared down at the end.

“He raced off the rail for about three-quarters of his race,” Aragona said. “He was just doing the 2-path. But I think on a day when the rail bias is as pronounced as it was, even being in the 2-path was a disadvantage. He got a speed figure that really wasn’t much of an improvement on his debut. I think the fact that he won despite racing off the rail means that you might want to upgrade that number a little bit as you would downgrade horses who got career-best numbers that were riding the rail.”

So will the trend continue when racing resumes this week? Another snowstorm is forecast for Thursday, so who knows if that card will even go on as scheduled?

“We had a bunch of rain (Monday) night and again (Tuesday) morning,” Serling told Byk. “There’s supposed to be some snow possible on Thursday, right? I imagine we’ll have a different racetrack by the time we get back to racing. Most of the time the track has been fair.”