12 to fade: These runners will not win Kentucky Derby 2024

The first step to analyzing a 20-horse field is to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Twelve runners in the 2024 Kentucky Derby would fall into the pretender category, which leaves a much more manageable eight contenders to sort through.

Here are 12 horses who will not win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, in alphabetical order.

Catalytic. Someone had to run second to runaway winner Fierceness in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Although Catalytic has shown nice improvement as a 3-year-old, he would have to take another massive step forward to factor in this spot.

Domestic Product. Chad Brown's second entrant in this year's Kentucky Derby was all out to win a slow renewal of the Tampa Bay Derby. He will benefit from a more lively early pace in this race but would need to improve by about 20 points on speed-figure scales to contend. 

Dornoch. The brother of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage has garnered plenty of attention this year, but he seems to have peaked after a grueling win in the Remsen Stakes (G2). He had to work harder than he should have against future claimers in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and was empty in the stretch of the Blue Grass (G1). As other runners in the class continue to progress, he appears stuck in neutral. Drawing post position 1 does little to help the cause. 

Endlessly. This colt has won 5 of 6 lifetime starts on synthetic and turf but has yet to try the dirt or this level of competition. Trainer Michael McCarthy has publicly stated that he did not want to enter this colt in this spot as he wanted to point him to the American Turf (G2) instead. If his trainer is not confident he can handle the dirt, it is hard for bettors to be confident. 

Grand Mo the First. He is still searching for his first win on dirt and already has been defeated by a number of these rivals. He does not appear to have the necessary upside to turn the tables on Catalytic, Domestic Product or Fierceness, who finished 16 lengths clear of this colt in the Florida Derby.

Just a Touch. He has been touted as a star since his debut but has yet to kick it in when the running matters in either of his two stakes efforts. He sat a perfect trip in the Blue Grass yet was blown away by Sierra Leone like he was standing still. He crawled home that day, and it is hard to imagine a better result at a longer distance in a race with more early pace competition.

Just Steel. Though it is hard to discount anything from the D. Wayne Lukas barn, this colt has been wildly inconsistent. His best efforts are good enough to get a piece, but it is hard to predict when he is going to fire his best shot. Even with a peak effort, he will be more of a contender to fill out the bottom of a trifecta or superfecta than to win. 

Resilience. It should be noted that this horse showed nice improvement when winning the Wood Memorial (G2) with the addition of blinkers, but no Kentucky Derby winners have exited the Wood since Funny Cide won the Derby after running second in the 2003 Wood Memorial. It is tough to trust a prep that has been so unproductive, and this year's running did not inspire with Society Man running second at 106-1. He also will likely suffer a wide trip from post 19.

Society Man. As mentioned above, he was 106-1 when running second in the Wood Memorial. His odds will be lower than that in the Kentucky Derby, but it is hard to imagine a better result for this gelding with one lifetime win. Even the legendary Frankie Dettori can only do so much from post 20. 

T O Password. The Japanese import may be a nice horse someday, but shipping all the way to Kentucky for just his third lifetime start is an awfully big ask. Other runners with more seasoning are preferred. 

Track Phantom. Steve Asmussen's colt has a ton of talent, but his form has slowly declined as the distance tests have increased. He will have to deal with Fierceness early on the front end and likely will not have much punch left for the stretch drive.

West Saratoga. It would be a great story if these small, local connections pulled off the huge upset with this $11,000 colt, but it is hard to picture it actually happening. He does own a win over the track, but he is unlikely to handle either the step up in trip or competition after failing to get the job done in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).