10 horses to fade in the 2022 Kentucky Derby

When handicapping a wide-open 20-horse field, it often is easier to throw out the pretenders before zeroing in on the remaining contenders in the race. Below we take a closer look at the runners who can safely be excluded from all exotic tickets in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Speed and fade

Classic Causeway, Early Voting, Zozos and Messier are likely to vie for the early lead with Epicenter, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba and Summer Is Tomorrow in hot pursuit. Something has to give on the front end, and the following horses will be the first to call it quits:

Early Voting: He defeated no one of note in his first two starts before getting run down late after opening up two lengths in the stretch in the Wood Memorial (G2), which has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 2000. New York form has not held up in the Kentucky Derby lately, and there is no reason to think that will change this year.

Summer Is Tomorrow: He could not hold off Crown Pride in the UAE Derby (G2), and the competition and pace pressure gets deeper in here. If an international runner pulls off a surprise, it will not be him. 

Classic Causeway: Even though his form in Tampa was strong, it is tough to play a horse coming off of an 11th-place finish. He will face more pace pressure than he ever has while asked to travel a longer distance than he ever has. He might have a nice future, but do not expect a bounce back in this spot.

Pioneer of Medina: It feels like he has less upside than the majority of his rivals in this race and he has proven to be a notch below the best of this crop. He has been able to work out good trips in his last few races, but there is no guarantee he will be able to do so in Kentucky. 

Not the right spot

These runners have plenty of ability but will not be at their best at the 1 1/4-mile distance on the dirt.

Tiz the Bomb: He thrives on synthetic and turf, but I am not convinced he is the same horse on dirt. His efforts in his debut at Churchill and in the Holy Bull (G3)  were very poor. He broke maiden on the dirt in wire-to-wire fashion without dirt being kicked in his face. He will not be anywhere near the lead in this race, and I expect this will be his last try on dirt.

Smile Happy: On paper, this talented son of Runhappy does not have the breeding to go this far and he indicated this might be true in the Blue Grass (G1) when making the lead and getting run down going 1 1/8 miles.

Tawny Port: He was able to defeat a weak field in the Lexington (G3), but he appears to be at his best on the synthetic. He will need to be better than ever to compete with this quality, and the last time he faced the likes of Epicenter and Zandon, he was nowhere to be seen in the Risen Star (G2).

Not fast enough

Happy Jack: He has lost three straight preps by double-digit lengths, and there is no reason to think that will change on the biggest stage yet. 

Un Ojo: It was shocking when he won the Rebel (G2) at 75-1, but this would be a Mine That Bird level of surprise. He was eighth in the subsequent Arkansas Derby (G1) and was unable to win anything other than a maiden at Delta Downs before the Rebel.

Barber Road: His consistency should be admired, but the crop in Arkansas was not as strong this year as it has been in the past and he could not get over the hump in any of the four preps. He will be closing but is more likely to split the field rather than seriously contend.