Zipse: Why Zozos deserves a look in Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Pace makes the race. It is one of the most powerful axioms in horse racing. Give a horse an uncontested lead in any race and their chances of winning go way up.

In early handicapping of the Breeders’ Cup, one race that particularly interests me is the $1 million Dirt Mile. The defending champion and horse to beat is Cody’s Wish. A second victory in the race would put an exclamation point on a popular and distinguished career for the son of Curlin.

His top challenger at Santa Anita figures to be Practical Move. A talented 3-year-old, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) likes the track and has not been beaten in 2023.

Neither Cody’s Wish nor Practical Move has much early speed, however. In fact, in looking at the early probables for the race, there looks to be little pace in the race.

Gunite or Saudi Crown could change that, but I am expecting to see them run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Breeders’ Cup Classic respectively. If so, Zozos could be in position to control the Dirt Mile as soon as the gates spring open.

With Cody’s Wish a heavy favorite and Practical Move a clear second choice, everyone else in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile will have very attractive odds. The Brad Cox-trained Zozos could be a very interesting play.

It’s easy to remember what Goldencents was able to do in back-to-back editions of the Dirt Mile. Both were contested at Santa Anita, and in each, the son of Into Mischief took the race to his competition early and often. He was never a champion, but gate-to-wire wins in two straight runnings of the Grade 1 race were highlights of his racing and set him up for a successful career at stud.

Frankly, I do not hold Zozos in the same regard as Cody’s Wish or Practical Move, but I am very interested to see who in this race has the potential to push the son of Munnings in the early stages of Nov. 4.

Assuming Gunite and Saudi Crown go for the richer races on the card, the Dirt Mile could become a race with soft early fractions. If the pace is easy, Zozos could become a very dangerous horse.

Like many horses from the Cox barn, Zozos has been well spotted throughout his career. He will enter the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup with a solid record of seven wins from 11 starts.

Unraced at 2, he was a determined winner of his debut, going six furlongs at Oaklawn. Off a 10-length, allowance win in his second career start, the homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow was asked to step right into the fray.

He set the pace in the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) in his third career start and held well to run second to the champion Epicenter. Next came the Kentucky Derby, and a relatively inexperienced Zozos chased a hot pace while wide and faded out of the picture late to be 10th of 20 in his fourth lifetime start.

Given a break after that difficult assignment, the dark bay colt with the distinctive blaze has stayed largely under the radar upon his return to the races in December. He has won 5 of 7 starts but has yet to make big news while doing it.

He disappointed in his two losses this year but has looked good in winning three stakes this season. It’s worth noting that in all of those stakes victories, Zozos was running a flat mile. That includes a front-running score in the Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs in his most recent start.

Unbeaten at the distance, Zozos should be largely ignored at the windows in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. All eyes will be on Cody’s Wish. But remember, pace makes the race, and that could be decidedly in favor of Zozos.