Zipse: How I plan to bet the 2019 Belmont Stakes
Saturday’s Belmont Stakes may not have the cast of characters we were hoping for when this Triple Crown series began, but the prospective field of 10 led by the Preakness winner War of Will and the Wood Memorial winner Tacitus still offers plenty of enticing wagering options -- especially when you consider all the excellent races which will proceed the 12-furlong classic.
One wager which I am excited about is the new Festival Pick 6. Big bettors may not appreciate the 20-cent base, but I embrace the low minimum which allows the more thrifty of us a chance to hit a Pick 6 that includes nothing but big races.
A two-day wager, this new offering will begin with the True North (G2) and the Belmont Gold Cup Invitational (G2) on Friday and conclude on Saturday with the Woody Stephens (G1), the Met Mile (G1), the Manhattan (G1) and, of course, the 151st Belmont Stakes.
While I have the utmost respect for War of Will and everything he has accomplished this year, I believe it is the other top choice, Tacitus, who is the horse to beat in the big one.
With the race held in his backyard, the regally bred son of Tapit and Close Hatches should relish the lengthy trip at America's biggest racetrack. Besides the distance and track factors, I also point to a pair of recent trends which favor Tacitus. In non-Triple Crown years, betting sons of Tapit, and betting horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness, have put money in the bank.
Tacitus will look to give America's leading sire his fourth Belmont winner with Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit all getting the job done in the past five years. Furthermore, none of those three ran in the Preakness, and neither did 2012 winner Union Rags or 2013 hero Palace Malice. Advantage Tacitus.
Tacitus will be my key horse in the Belmont, and the final leg of the Festival Pick 6. Others I'm sure to use in the first five races of this wager include:
- A fresh, talented and classy Catalina Cruiser making his return in the True North.
- One American (Arklow) and one European (Raa Atoll) in the Belmont Gold Cup.
- The one-turn loving and multiple graded stakes winner Mind Control in the Woody Stephens.
- My longshot pick in the Met Mile, Firenze Fire, who absolutely loves Belmont Park, as well as the horse to beat, McKinzie.
- Bricks and Mortar as the obvious horse to beat in the Manhattan.
I will be including others and spreading in certain races on multiple tickets thanks to that low minimum, but these eight horses are my must-use contenders in the Festival Pick 6.
As far as the Belmont Stakes itself, the trifecta will be my main play.
Tacitus will be keyed on top in one ticket, and because I'm not too interested in having the two favorites in the top two spots, I will try to beat War of Will there, instead going with my top two Belmont longshots, Tax and Intrepid Heart, who I believe both have the pedigree to love this unique race and the tactical speed to be involved gate to wire.
Pending any changes between now and the Belmont, my first trifecta ticket will be:
$3 base: Tacitus/ Tax, Intrepid Heart/ Tax, Intrepid Heart, War of Will, Master Fencer, Everfast, Spinoff, Sir Winston, Bourbon War = $42
And just in case one of my longshots can pull off an upset, I will have a pair of smaller trifecta wagers with them on top.
$1 base: Tax, Intrepid Heart/ Tacitus/ Tax, Intrepid Heart, War of Will, Master Fencer, Everfast, Spinoff, Sir Winston, Bourbon War = $14
$1 base: Tax, Intrepid Heart/ Tax, Intrepid Heart, War of Will, Master Fencer, Everfast, Spinoff, Sir Winston, Bourbon War/ Tacitus = $14
The new Festival Pick 6 and Belmont trifectas are exciting ways to go after a score on Belmont Stakes Day. I hope my selections and strategies help you make a killing. Good luck!