Zipse: How I’m betting Breeders’ Cup 2019's Saturday races
Saturday's Breeders' Cup card is the best overall day in American racing. Career-defining victories, big money and Eclipse Awards will be on the line as more than 100 horses compete in the nine championship races.
It's not only a year-end culmination for horses and their connections, but it's also a proving ground for handicappers -- an opportunity to cash in on a season's worth of following these top horses.
With that in mind, I humbly submit my suggested wagers for each of the races on the big card...
I'll be taking a stand against the likely favorite, Covfefe, in this one. She's lightning quick, but coming off a huge performance and trying to carry her speed all seven furlongs from the rail against this talented field looks like a tall task to me.
Instead, I see Come Dancing and Spiced Perfection, a pair of older mares in peak form, as the ones to beat. They both like the trip and should be ready to pounce on the leaders as the field turns for home. One or the other should advance me in an early multi-race wager.
50-cent Pick 4 - Come Dancing, Spiced Perfection / All / Omaha Beach, Mr. Money / Sistercharlie, Fanny Logan = $48
In an extremely wide open affair, I hit the "All" button in my Pick 4, but I will also take a small exacta shot with a trio of horses who should have some attractive odds.
Pure Sensation, Imprimis, and Belvoir Bay all have plenty of back class, and enjoy the five-furlong distance. They also have been pointed for this race since the beginning of the year.
$2 Exacta Box - Pure Sensation, Imprimis, Belvoir Bay = $12
Omaha Beach came back in a resounding way with his winning return to the races in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1). Unless the Richard Mandella-trained star bounces, I expect him to show us why many consider him to be America's top 3-year-old.
Underneath, I look for the sophomores to earn a sweep of the top spots, as they seem a bit more talented than an uninspiring group of elders. Of them, I like Mr. Money next best. He did not run his race in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and still nearly won. Back at his best distance, I look for him to run big.
$20 Exacta Box - Omaha Beach / Mr. Money = $20
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
As one of the day's biggest favorites, Sistercharlie is squarely the one to beat. She's won a remarkable six consecutive Grade 1 races, and more of the same should see her in the winner's circle for a second straight year in this race. Having said that, every horse is beatable, and a European longshot interests me quite a bit.
Fanny Logan is trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, both of whom have an excellent history of coming over and winning big races in the United States. The daughter of Sea the Stars looks to be getting better with each start, and she seems ideally suited for the ten furlong trip.
$10 Exacta Box - Sistercharlie, Fanny Logan = $20
With Mitole chasing the speedy Shancelot and Imperial Hint not far behind, I am expecting a fast early pace in the Sprint. So much so that I don't expect the losers of that battle to have much left for the stretch run.
There are plenty of options to pick up the pieces, but I am going to side with a real bomb in Hog Creek Hustle. He got in a decent enough prep at the six-furlong distance last time, but I really expect him to appreciate the collapsing pace this time around.
Look for Mitole to win the early speed battle, while Hog Creek Hustle comes flying late.
$1 Tri - Mitole, Hog Creek Hustle/ Mitole, Hog Creek Hustle / All = $14
$1 Tri - Mitole, Hog Creek Hustle/ All / Mitole, Hog Creek Hustle = $14
Much like the Turf Sprint, this is one tough spot to throw anyone out. I will try to narrow things down, though, with a quartet of horses to begin a new Pick 4.
I believe Got Stormy is made for the mile on firm turf, and I like her chances to forge to the lead early in the stretch. Meanwhile, Circus Maximus comes with excellent credentials from Europe and can win this on class with his best.
On the longshot front, Without Parole has back class, and may wake up again for new trainer Chad Brown. Finally, it's hard not to appreciate the consistent rally of the local runner, Bowie's Hero.
50-cent Pick 4 - Got Stormy, Circus Maximus, Without Parole, Bowie's Hero / Midnight Bisou, Serengeti Empress / Bricks and Mortar, Arklow, Mount Everest, Anthony Van Dyck / Vino Rosso, Yoshida, Code of Honor = $48
Breeders' Cup Distaff
It's certainly Midnight Bisou's race to lose. She's been the best older female all year long and looks well suited for the conditions on Saturday. Her best makes her 8-for-8 in 2019 and in with a real shot to take home Horse of the Year.
I actually believe her biggest danger may come from the fleet 3-year-old, Serengeti Empress. The Kentucky Oaks heroine should be off at attractive odds this time around, and I could see a scenario where she gets brave if not pressured hard early.
$1 Pick 3 Midnight Bisou, Serengeti Empress / Bricks and Mortar, Arklow, Mount Everest, Anthony Van Dyck / Vino Rosso, Yoshida, Code of Honor = $24
Bricks and Mortar is certainly the deserving favorite in here. The best Europeans did not come over, and he has dominated American turf runners this season. His one unknown comes with the 12-furlong distance. It's a quarter mile farther than he's ever traveled. Still, it would take a big effort to upset him.
Much like Fanny Logan in the female counterpart to this event, I see Mount Everest as a dangerous 3-year-old. He's regally bred and from top connections. This is a step up for him without doubt, but he's still very lightly raced this year, and appears to be moving in the right direction.
$10 Exacta Box - Bricks and Mortar, Mount Everest = $20
It's not a strong edition of the Classic by any means, but with a vulnerable favorite in McKinzie, it does offer an interesting betting race.
I like Vino Ross best as the likely third betting choice. The 10-furlong distance suits him, plus there's the fact that he has a win over the Santa Anita track. His recent ability to get involved in the race early is a bonus.
I see his biggest threat as the horse he battled last time, Code of Honor, who also has excelled at the trip. He could clinch the 3-year-old championship with a win here.
Finally, Yoshida should offer good value in here and just missed getting into the picture in this race last year. A decent early pace should set the table for his rally. Being trained and ridden by the classy pair of Bill Mott and Mike Smith shouldn't hurt at all either.
$1 Tri - Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida / Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida / Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida, Elate, McKinzie, Owendale, Higher Power, Mongolian Groom = $36
$1 Tri - Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida / Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida, Elate, McKinzie, Owendale, Higher Power, Mongolian Groom / Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida = $36