Zipse: 5 reasons why American turf is on the uptick
Much maligned for decades, American turf racing has long played second fiddle behind our nation’s preferred surface of dirt. Those of us who love good grass racing, though, really love it despite our country’s shortcomings when compared to the turf horses of other nations.
It stings just a little bit when the Europeans come over and regularly steal our turf thunder at the Breeders’ Cup. And forget about our turf horses going abroad to win important races in Europe, Japan, Australia, or Hong Kong. It is extremely rare to say the least. With all that said, all of sudden there are signs that the grass is just a little bit greener on our side of the pond.
I wouldn’t call it a revival just yet, but at the very least American turf racing is enjoying an uptick in 2026. I came to this realization while handicapping Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day. Deterministic and Rhetorical are both expected for the big race at Saratoga.
Both are serious horses who just now are reaching their prime, and they are both on my short list of quality American turf males. Let’s take a look at the five horses who are bringing some pride back to the home turf team.
Burnham Square
I could not be any higher about the future for the 4-year-old son of Liam’s Map. The Whitham homebred was good enough to be a Grade 1 winner on the dirt. First in the Blue Grass (G1) and Holy Bull (G3), Burnham Square had a horrendous trip in the Kentucky Derby before rallying for sixth. A successful main track runner, he was only biding his time before taking to the turf.
Promise was shown in his first two starts on the turf. A bang-up second in the rich Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs was a coming attraction of what he could do as a grass horse. Veteran trainer Ian Wilkes, a native of Australia, is patient. He chose not to push his stable star last fall and has been conservative in his three starts so far this year.
A second-place finish while running short in his return was the prelude to a pair of powerhouse performances. Give Burnham Square 1 1/2-miles on the grass and you might just have something very special. His wins in the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland and the Louisville (G3) have me believing that this is his game, and he is very, very good at it. Competition will get much tougher, but I believe he is very much for real.
Burnham Square gives me real hope that an American runner can take down the top prize in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for the first time since Bricks and Mortar back in 2019. And the best part about this horse is as a 4-year-old gelding, we could be enjoying his grass exploits for the next several years.
Rhetorical
Voted the New York-bred horse of the year in 2025, this 5-year-old son of Not This Time is still improving with maturity and experience. Trained by Will Walden, he did not make his career debut until the summer of his 3-year-old season. Rhetorical proved worth the wait with a five-length romp on the turf at Saratoga. Although he made only one more unlucky start that season, he has been on a steady rise to the top of American grass racing ever since.
At 4, Rhetorical zipped through his conditions and quickly started winning stakes. The West Point at Saratoga was for fellow state-breds and was a convincing victory in his stakes debut. He moved quickly into Grade 1 racing from there and made the most of the opportunity by winning the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. His winning streak ended at four, when he seized the lead early in the lane in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) before succumbing late to finish fourth, beaten only two lengths.
Picking up right where he left off, Rhetorical was a good third in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland to start 2026, before dominantly winning the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs under regular and confident rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Next will be the Manhattan and his first try at the 1 3/16-mile distance.
Through nine career races, all on turf, he has won six times and has never run a poor race. As lightly raced as he is now at 5, his best days are likely ahead of him. And like Burnham Square, he is a gelding, so the career of Rhetorical could be one we see unfolding for a few more years.
Deterministic
If Rhetorical is to win the Manhattan, he is going to have to beat Deterministic to do it. This has proven to be no easy feat. Like Burnham Square, he is a son of Liam’s Map and had some graded stakes success on the dirt before finding his true home on the grass.
Trained by Miguel Clement, who took over after the tragic passing of his father Christophe, Deterministic has become a winning machine since switching to the turf. The 5-year-old has stayed on the East Coast for his turf racing to date where he has compiled a sparkling 9:6-2-1 record while competing exclusively in graded stakes racing.
Better yet, the handsome dark bay has shown serious improvement with maturity. In 2025, he rattled off victories in the Fort Marcy (G2), Manhattan (G1), and Fourstardave (G1). His 4-year-old season was cut short after the last win, but he came back after a nine-month layoff to defend his Fort Marcy title on the same afternoon that Rhetorical won the Turf Classic.
The Manhattan meeting between Deterministic and Rhetorical promises to be a highlight of a loaded stakes weekend and hopefully, the start of an excellent rivalry.
Formidable Man
The turf racing in California has left much to be desired in recent years, but this 5-year-old pro from the barn of Michael McCarthy is a bright spot and has been proving himself to be one of the best milers in the country. To date on the grass, the son of City of Light has nine wins and three seconds from 16 career races on the turf.
One of those seconds came just two starts ago when he ran a bang-up second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) behind the champion Notable Speech. A bit underestimated that afternoon, Formidable Man simply ran his consistent, excellent race and was second best in the large field of 13.
Given plenty of time off during the winter break, he came back last week to score convincingly in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) as the favorite. It was his seventh stakes victory in the past three seasons, and as is a consistent story with these turf stars, he is only getting better with maturity.
Formidable Man still needs to prove himself outside of his home state of California, but he clearly appreciates the one mile distance should once again be considered a real threat when the Breeders’ Cup Mile rolls around at Keeneland this fall.
Zulu Kingdom
Last but not least, there is Zulu Kingdom. He does not seem to get much respect, but this Chad Brown-trained charge sure knows his way to the winner’s circle. A 4-year-old son of a dual Group 1 winner in Europe, Ten Sovereigns, he began his career in Europe at 2 and won his only start there before moving to the Brown barn.
It took him no time at all to start winning stakes races after arriving in the U.S. Victories in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga and the Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct set him up for a trip west. In between horses and chasing a fast pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), his rider lost his whip in the stretch and Zulu Kingdom faded out of contention. It remains his only poor result.
Returning at 3 last season, the bay ridgling returned to his winning ways. Zulu Kingdom scored in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs before earning his first Grade 1 victory in the American Turf at Churchill Downs. Taking his game back east, he added the Manila (G3) to his winning streak. In a bizarre decision, Saratoga stewards ended his winning streak when he crossed the wire first in the Hall of Fame (G2).
At that point, I thought he could be a real threat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but like Deterministic, his 2025 season was cut short. Returning from the physical setback in April, Zulu Kingdom looked better than ever when going gate to wire in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) over the likes of Rhetorical and Notable Speech. He is not the flashiest horse, but in nine career races, he has made it to the finish line first eight times.