Yellow Ribbon Handicap 2016: Odds and Analysis

Opening weekend at Del Mar; there are not many happier circumstances in racing than that. Where the turf meets the surf, and where the best in West Coast racing come to shine. The oceanside oval will be the personal summertime playpen of some of racing’s biggest stars. Before California Chrome and Beholder strut their stuff, though, Del Mar will play host to an important three-day weekend of grass racing. After a near month long hiatus from grass racing at Santa Anita, due to course renovation, seeing them on the green again will be a welcome sight. While the males will hold court on Friday and Sunday in the Oceanside and Eddie Read, the older females will take center stage in Saturday’s Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap. Let’s take a look at the field of nine for the 1 1/16-mile race over the Del Mar turf, including my analysis and projected odds…

Finest City (6-1) - Not only do I expect this one to have some very playable odds in here, but she also has the added benefit of being the only horse in the race making a true class drop. Of course, she was never going to actually beat Beholder in the Vanity Mile, but the third-place finish, beaten 2 1/4-lengths, was an excellent follow-up to a sharp score in the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes the race before. Not seen on the turf since a good effort on the downhill course at Santa Anita last year, the Pennsylvania-bred four-year-old daughter of City Zip has turf breeding on both sides of her pedigree, and could be the controlling speed in here. Coming off a sharp performance (arguably the best race of her life), I expect her to make a very favorable impression in a tough, but winnable spot here in the Yellow Ribbon. Beware the Second-Time Turfer

Nancy From Nairobi (3-1) - I’m willing to give Nancy From Nairobi another chance after finishing sixth last time in the Grade 1 Gamely. The English import was beaten only 2 ½-lengths that afternoon while never really getting much room to run. Prior to that, she was working on a three-race win streak for trainer John Sadler, which included a score in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine at Santa Anita. Note that the Royal Heroine victory was after a similar gap between races that she will enjoy on Saturday. If she can stay outside of horses this time, look for her to strike a winning move heading into the Yellow Ribbon stretch run, while making her first career start at Del Mar. The One to Beat 

Prize Exhibit (6-1) - Another English import this four-year-old daughter of Showcasing displayed a real fondness for the turf course at Del Mar last summer with a string of big efforts, including a near miss in the 2015 Yellow Ribbon. While it is true that her recent form leaves plenty to be desired, I see enough there to think that she will not need to improve too much to make her presence felt at a distance, and over a course, she prefers. She certainly does not represent a safe bet in here, but I am expecting a return to form here for trainer James Cassidy. Likes Del Mar

Majestic Heat (8-1) - The daughter of Unusual Heat ran over the Del Mar turf course five times last year. While her busy summer schedule only netted her a record of 5-1-1-0, it should be noted that she did run well here in most of those efforts, including an unlucky neck defeat, and being only beaten three lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Now four, she may well be ready to prove herself a threat in graded stakes racing in Southern California for trainer Richard Mandella. Evidence of that can be seen in her sharp return to the races at Santa Anita on June 17. She steps up in class in the Yellow Ribbon off that win, but there is strong reason to believe that she can run with this class of turf mare. Value Contender

Keri Belle (5-1) - Continues to be a hard knocking type for trainer John Shirreffs. She’s usually making up ground late, and that was true in the last one, when she got within 1 ¾-lengths in the Grade 1 Gamely. She also counts a victory in the Grade 3 Megahertz to begin the year, as one of her four starts in 2016. Interestingly, the six-year-old daughter of Empire Maker has never before run on the Del Mar Turf. While I do like a few others in here more, if she likes Del Mar, and the turf course is playing kindly to late runners, like it sometimes does, she becomes a major threat. Should be Running Late

Queen of the Sand (6-1) - One of the classier performers in the field, the Paddy Gallagher trainee ran a big, just miss second in the Grade 2 John C Mabee Stakes right here at Del Mar last summer. In fact, she has finished first or second in five of her seven starts locally. While the class and the fondness for the turf course are in her favor, I do see two negatives as to why you might play against her in here. First off, she has been away eight months since her last start in late November. Secondly, this race lacks pace, which likely will make it a little more difficult for her to come from last for the win.  Might Need One 

Her Emmynency (8-1) - This one is a bit of a tough nut to figure out. She looked like a future turf star with consecutive big performances in Grade 1 races in 2015, including a good second in the Del Mar Oaks, before shipping to Keeneland to win the prestigious Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Off those efforts, she is the one to beat on Saturday, but then you look at some of her performances before and after, and she becomes much harder to recommend. She has had three tries so far this year, and while not embarrassed in any, she simply did not flatter herself. A return to Del Mar possibly could be tonic for what ails her, but it is hard to be confident. Cannot Dismiss

She’s Not Here (8-1) – She’s here and she’s the defending champ. The problem is the Vicky Oliver trained mare has not fared well since winning the Yellow Ribbon in 2015. The good news is that she has faced plenty of good horses, or in the case of Tepin, one great one, in the five defeats since scoring the biggest win of her life at Del Mar last summer. Still, though, the form recently is just not good enough for me to get behind on Saturday. Perhaps a fondness for the surroundings at Del Mar makes a difference, but that would be the only way to really like her. Needs a Return to Form

Fresh Feline (10-1) - Another from the barn of John Shirreffs, this one has the ability to be on or near the lead in a race lacking a great deal of early speed. After being a hard-knocking allowance type for much of her career, she graduated to stakes company late last year with only mixed results. Fans of hers will not that her third and latest stakes try was her best yet, as she finished a competitive third in the Grade 2 Santa Ana in March. Freshened since, she hopes to sit a nice stalking trip in order for a chance to upset this field. Possible Pace Factor