Woodbine Mile 2017: Odds and Analysis

Last year, America's wonderful turf champion, Tepin gutted out a brave victory in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. Who will be the hero this time around in one of North America's top races for middle distance grass horses? With a purse of $800,000 and an automatic qualifying spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile on the line, there is no shortage of quality contenders to choose from. Saturday's biggest race of an outstanding card of graded turf stakes also brings together a nice mix of Europeans, Americans, and local contenders to the beautiful E.P. Taylor turf course at Woodbine. Without further ado, let's take a look at the field of 12, including my analysis and projected odds ...  

1) World Approval (4-1) - One of two from the powerful barn of Mark Casse, this five-year-old warrior took plenty of shots at big turf races going long, but seems to have really found his niche this year in middle distance racing. He's won all three starts in 2017 going nine furlongs or less. Especially tough when there is a little cut in the ground, his last, in which he beat some solid performers in the Fourstardave at Saratoga, may have been his best yet. His tactical nature always puts him in with a shot at the top of the lane, and Saturday's big race should be no different. The Top Pick

10) Lancaster Bomber (6-1) - The only three-year-old in the field, this son of War Front is well proven against top competition, having run in four consecutive Group 1 affairs in Europe. Trained by the master, Aidan O'Brien, he's also proven he can run big in North America, having run a strong second behind Oscar Performance in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Looking at his recent form, he looks best when the turf is not too soft. On firm or good turf, he should prove a major threat at Woodbine. Could Beat his Elders

6) Deauville (5-2) - A deserving favorite, and also trained by Aidan O'Brien, this four-year-old son of Galileo is another who has come to North America and found success before. In fact, he's already run three strong performances in the States. Most recently, he was in a with a big shot early in the stretch of the Arlington Million, before weakening just a bit late to finish third, beaten less than a length. Shortening up to a mile could be the boost he needs to bust a four-race losing streak. Consistent and Classy

2) Tower of Texas (10-1) - This local star just missed in last year's running of the Woodbine Mile. Despite losing his last two, he looks to be coming into his third attempt in the big race in strong form, having run well in all three races this year. Last time, his powerful late run was blocked at a key juncture. With plenty of horses that want to be close in the early stages in here, he should find a reasonable pace to come running once again. Local Finishes Fast

11) Dutch Connection (8-1) - Despite a failed attempt in the Breeders' Cup Mile in his last trip to North America, there should be little doubt of his overall class, and his preference for races one mile or less. A solid performer in Europe, the Godolphin charge seems to be rounding into his best form, dominating a field at Goodwood in his latest a few weeks ago. Dangerous Euro

8) Mondialiste (6-1) - The 2015 winner of the Woodbine Mile is no stranger to North American racing, having also accounted for last year's Arlington Million. Now seven, he might be past his prime. Since winning the Million, the son of Galileo has lost seven in a row. Still, he shows flashes of his old self, and with a return to a track he obviously likes, at a preferable distance, it would come as no surprise to see him run big. Former Winner of the Woodbine Mile

7) Conquest Panthera (15-1) - Always talented, this Mark Casse trainee missed much of his first three seasons on the track due to physical issues. Now five, he's finally putting in a full season of racing. He's proven to be a consistent performer at a mile on turf, and he seems to like the Woodbine course. This is a step up off a recent win in the Play the King Stakes, but he may getting this good. Won Local Prep

5) Dragon Bay (15-1) - Another local runner, this four-year-old son of Parading is a three-time stakes winner in the last eleven months. Having said that, he's never quite handled this type of field before. Still, solid recent form, and over the course, point him out as a threat in here. It will be interesting to see where he settles in early coming out of an 11-furlong race. Cutting Back in Distance

3) Long On Value (15-1) - The well traveled veteran from the United States will be stepping up in distance from a solid performance in a 5 1/2-furlong stakes race at Saratoga. While he has run plenty of good races going a mile in his career, it seems he may be better going shorter at this stage in his career. I respect the six-year-old on class, but I do like others better in this spot. Stretching Out

12) Glenville Gardens (20-1) - This Canadian gelding sports a strong record over the local turf course, including a pair of wins going a flat mile at Woodbine in his last four starts. Those wins came against lesser competition than he will see on Saturday, though. Last year in this race, he faded to seventh down the lane. He's a very nice, consistent performer, but until he proves it against these type of horses, I am going to have to leave him off my tickets. A Cut Below

9) Arod (20-1) - Good enough to finish within two lengths of the mighty Tepin last year, the six-year-old Irish-bred does not bring his best form to Canada this time around for trainer, David Simcock. Only a return to his very best on Saturday will give him a chance. Looks to Have Lost a Step

4) Best Bard (30-1) - The seven-year-old gelding is coming in off a win over the course in his latest, but that is where the good news ends. Snatched out of that $40,000 claimer, his new connections look to be aiming way too high with their new runner. A solid enough turf veteran, but overmatched in this one. Tall Task in Here