With a Rebel Yell It’s The Factor

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 49
Sometimes there is nothing more dangerous than good old fashioned speed, and that is something The Factor has in abundance. Making every pole a winning one, The Factor, under rider Martin Garcia, powered to the lead within the first few strides and rolled to an easy six length score in today’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

After a pair of impressive wins sprinting at Santa Anita, there were many questions on whether the son of first-year sire War Front could handle two-turns. At least some of those answers were answered in high fashion this afternoon in Arkansas.

Owned by Fog City Stable & George Bolton, The Factor paid $4.80 as the 7-5 favorite in the field of nine, in winning his third straight race after losing his debut. Caleb’s Posse nipped Archarcharch for place money. For now the Factor’s next race is uncertain, but the April 16 Arkansas Derby is a possibility, according to trainer Bob Baffert.

There can be no doubt that The Factor’s win today was high quality, but what will it mean as we close in on the Kentucky Derby? Today he ran 8 ½ furlongs with little pressure. A good speed horse should be too strong for the rest after an easy first part like that. Fractions for the grey speedster included a first quarter in 23.33, the half in 46.77, six furlongs in 1:10.98, the mile in 1:35.99, and the final time for the 1 1/16 miles was 1:42.99. Meaning he set quality, but not blazing quarters of 23.33,  23.44, 24.22, before finishing with a final 5/16 in 31.20. Solid, but the final part of the race shows us that no one in the field was doing much running in the late stages. By way of comparison, The Factor ran only .17 slower than the top older filly Havre De Grace ran in winning the Azeri Stakes one race earlier.

Looking forward seven weeks, whether The Factor turns out to be like many other speed horses who were toasted by the early pressure and demanding distance of the Kentucky Derby remains to be seen. Horses of great speed like Spend A Buck, Winning Colors, and War Emblem were able to lead their Run for the Roses competition on a merry chase, so there is hope. I am not ready to fully buy in yet, but he does remind me of Winning Colors to this stage.

[How high will The Factor rise in the HRN 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders after today's impressive win?]
 

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