Zipse: Will a Remsen runner finally win the Kentucky Derby?
All good jinxes eventually come to an end. Justify winning the Kentucky Derby and the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series taught us that even the most long-standing curses eventually come to an end. Can this year be the one when a Remsen Stakes runner finally breaks through on the first Saturday in May?
As the longest of all the important races for juveniles, you would think that Aqueduct’s historic Remsen would be fertile ground for future success on the first Saturday in May, and for a time it was. Kentucky Derby winners Pleasant Colony (1981), Go for Gin (1994) and Thunder Gulch (1995) all used the demands of the Remsen as a springboard to big success the following spring.
Since then, however, the Remsen has been in a serious funk for the Kentucky Derby. Nearly three decades removed from the last Kentucky Derby hero to start in the Remsen, the late-season test has become a bit of a pariah.
The message has been rather clear. Do not run in the Remsen if you want to wear the roses. Still, they continue to try.
There have been plenty of very good horses who have run in the nine-furlong Remsen in recent years. Horses such as Mucho Macho Man, Honor Code, Mo Donegal, Court Vision and Frosted went on to excellent careers after their late juvenile season runs at the Big A, but no Remsen runners have won the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century. That all could change in the coming weeks.
The 2023 edition of the Remsen Stakes already has proven itself a key race. Less than eight weeks out from the first Saturday in May, it looks to have multiple horses in the Derby field.
Sierra Leone currently is my personal top choice for the Kentucky Derby, and he didn’t even win the Remsen.
A son of Gun Runner, the 2017 horse of the year and third-place finisher in the Derby the year before, Sierra Leone was in high demand as a yearling. So much so that the hammer didn’t drop until they reached $2.3 million for him at Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga select yearling sale of 2022.
A first-out winner at Aqueduct in early November for trainer Chad Brown, the handsome dark bay made his second career start in the Remsen a month later and ran a bang-up race in losing by a nose to Dornoch.
That, coupled with an impressive late run to win the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds last month has me believing that Sierra Leone will be one of the ones to beat in a crowded Kentucky Derby starting gate. He will use Keeneland’s Blue Grass (G1) as his fourth career start and final prep for the big one.
Dornoch also merits serious respect on the Derby trail. As a full brother to the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he will be looking to make history this year on May 4.
The well-bred son of the 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic came into the muddy edition of the Remsen as a more experienced runner than Sierra Leone with three starts under his belt. But he needed an unlikely and tenacious re-rally up the rail to win by a nose.
The thrilling and game victory in the Remsen pointed out the strapping Dornoch as a top contender for this year’s Kentucky Derby, and although unspectacular in a scratch-depleted edition of the Fountain of Youth (G2), he did enough to win, remaining on course for a run at Churchill Downs.
Hard held early in the Remsen, Domestic Product had little left for the stretch drive that afternoon but has come back strongly in 2024. A solid second in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, in which he split the winner Hades and the juvenile champion Fierceness, was a good start to his sophomore campaign.
Like Sierra Leone, the son of Practical Joke is trained by Chad Brown. Validating his good run in the Holy Bull, Domestic Product was a strong-finishing winner of Saturday’s strange Tampa Bay Derby (G3). I’m not sure of the overall quality of the race, but he was clearly the one running best at the end.
As for the third-place finisher in the Remsen, the Brad Cox-trained Drum Roll Please was the first Remsen runner to find the winner’s circle after the race. He joined the Derby trail by winning the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct five weeks later.
Unfortunately, the son of Hard Spun will not continue on the Kentucky Derby trail after sustaining an injury in his first workout after the Jerome victory.
Even Le Dom Bro, a complete also-ran in the Remsen, has managed to add to the depth and quality of the field. Ninth as a big long shot on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct, he recently became a late nominee for the Triple Crown when his connections paid the $6,000 to make him eligible.
They were prompted to do so when the son of Mucho Macho Man finished a troubled second in the Swale Stakes and then a game second in the Fountain of Youth behind Dornoch in his first two starts at 3.
Will a Remsen runner finally win the Kentucky Derby in 2024? With each passing week of preps, the historic race at the Big A appears to have a better shot.