Why Nyquist won’t lose the Preakness

The Triple Crown. As recently as a year ago, it seemed as elusive to a racehorse as the World Series is to the Chicago Cubs. Then along came American Pharoah. Much like Secretariat had done 42 years before him, the brilliant son of Pioneerof the Nile broke all the recent rules. Yes, indeed, a great one like these could come along and break the ever so long drought of a horse sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes. Thanks to his effortless, fluid stride, and his pure talent, American Pharoah put to bed the notion that it would never be done again. Of course, soon after Secretariat, came Seattle Slew and Affirmed. They were not Secretariat, but their own personal unique talents and abilities allowed them to join the pantheon. Three Triple Crown champions within a stretch of six years, after none for a quarter-century. The 1970’s were truly a Golden Age for American racing. Now just one year removed from Pharoah-Mania, we have a horse named Nyquist.

Slow were most to truly appreciate the talents of the son of Uncle Mo. Just as they were for Affirmed, and Silver Charm in years gone by. These are great horses of the past, whom I’ve compared to this year’s Kentucky Derby champion. As was true with that pair, Nyquist does not bowl over his competition with electrifying speed, or a turn of foot that passes horses like they were standing still. Nor does he win his races by eight, ten, and twelve lengths. Rather he just wins. Speed, tractability, maneuverability, intelligence, heart – no matter how he does it, the truth is, Nyquist is a winning son of a gun. In fact, he wins every time. Perfect since day one, the Reddam/O’Neill/Gutierrez star has now rattled off five Grade 1 wins, and two Grade 2 wins since his successful maiden debut last June 5 at Santa Anita. Next will come racing’s Middle Jewel for racing’s new star, and frankly, I believe it approaches silliness to expect anything different than another Nyquist victory.

Winners of the Triple Crown

As good as he was to be an undefeated Juvenile Champion last year, it is quite clear to me that Nyquist is better at three, and I believe that he is still getting better. These same connections were able to do it four year ago with I’ll Have Another peaking come spring, and now they are doing it again. In my opinion, Nyquist’s best three races have been his last three. His best two races have been his last two, and yes; his best race was his last one. This might still be up for a little bit of debate, but I really believe that Exaggerator is the second best three-year-old male in the country. Nyquist beat him by more than a length at seven furlongs in the San Vicente, and beat him by more than a length in the Kentucky Derby.

I applaud the connections of Exaggerator for being the sportsmen that they are, but why should we expect anything different at Pimlico. Despite the presence of Exaggerator, Nyquist will be heavily favored in the Preakness, and he will win. If the pace is normal, he will stalk and pounce. If the pace is fast, he will come from just a little farther back. If the pace is slow, he will be on the lead. Nyquist is just that kind of horse. Affirmed was the same way.

So in six days, look for Nyquist to raise his record to 9-for-9, and move within one race of joining the 12 great horses from American racing history, who were able to complete the feat, and win the Triple Crown. Again, this may be up for debate, but I think the Preakness will be the easier of the two races that stand in the way of his quest to become #13, a number, by the way, that seems to hold repeating significance for Nyquist.

I’m not saying that he will not win the Belmont, mind you, as I think he has a great chance to do just that, but of the two, I think that is the one that may present a larger challenge. The distance of the third leg being part of it, but more than that, it is the final leg of a grueling series. The question being, can Nyquist maintain his form and superiority over a very difficult five-week span? We already know he is coming into the Preakness in fantastic fettle, and American Pharoah sure did make it look easy. Who knows … perhaps this will even be “the year” for the Chicago Cubs.