Why McCraken Will Win Kentucky Derby 2017

This year’s prep season has been a little tough to figure, to say the least. Upsets have been a common theme on the road to Kentucky Derby 2017, but through it all, one horse has remained at the top, or near the top of my consideration since last November. That horse is McCraken.

Despite his loss in the Blue Grass, I feel very confident McCraken will show up with his top game next Saturday. Will that be enough to get the job done for the team of Janis Whitham, Ian Wilkes, and Brian Hernandez. Jr.? We will not know for sure for another seven days, but of all the potential winners in the field, I certainly consider him the one most likely to win.

Here is why I believe McCraken will win the Kentucky Derby:

McCraken has the pedigree to wear the roses. His sire, Ghostzapper, was one of the best horses of the 21st century, and a winner at the highest level going ten furlongs in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Once thought of as primarily a one-turn horse, the son of another BC Classic winner, Awesome Again, he was never more dominant then when stretched out to America's classic distance. A very good sire, McCraken could be the one to take his stallion career to the next level. On the female side, McCraken has that royal Phipps blood on his side. Broodmare sire, Seeking the Gold narrowly lost out on victory in the 1 1/4-mile BC Classic himself, when edged out by the Hall of Fame's Alysheba.

McCraken loves Churchill Downs. Some horses come to Derby City having raced over the track before, while some others will look good getting over the main strip in the mornings. McCraken has both of those things and more. Churchill Downs is his home, and the place where he ran all three of his juvenile starts. He won the trio in impressive fashion. Now back home after a winter away, the young colt can enjoy being around familiar surroundings. He also can enjoy the racing surface. You can just tell it is a track that he moves over with confidence and a fluid stride. Any other track would not be as good a place to run the Derby for McCraken. 

McCraken has the racing style to win the Derby. With a good deal of speed signed-up for this year's Run for the Roses, things should set up well for a horse who can come from off the pace, although, they say it is rare that a horse wins it in the final sixteenth. This fits McCraken perfectly. He likes to come from behind, but not so far back that traffic or fatigue will likely get in his way. Like so many Derby winners of the past, he can make his move on the turn, and be in perfect position at the head of the stretch. While much of the field will be getting winded, he should be just hitting the front, and ready to sprint home to the wire.

McCraken is prepared to win the Kentucky Derby. You may think it odd for me to say this, coming off his first career defeat, but I am old school. In this age of social media, it might not be a popular stance, but a loss before the big race does not worry me. I've seen too many of the biggest races over the years won by horses who were beaten in their most recent prep. After a minor physical setback, following a typical outstanding effort in the Sam F. Davis, the Blue Grass was a race that the three-time stakes winner needed, especially preparing for the ten-furlong Derby. He was a little fresh, and the race did not set up for him well. Still he menaced early in the lane, before falling short in third. It is a race in which he got plenty out of, and one in which I have no doubt, that he will improve upon.

McCraken's trainer has been down this road. Ian Wilkes is old school. He does not mind bringing horses along slowly, so that they can continue to improve later. This fact alone speaks volumes as to why I know McCraken will be better in the Kentucky Derby than he was in the Blue Grass. History has also taught us this, as Wilkes, while the assistant trainer for Carl Nafzger, saw both of their Kentucky Derby winners, Unbridled and Street Sense, lose their final prep, before running to glory at Churchill Downs. In fact, much like McCraken, they both lost the Blue Grass before arriving to Louisville.

McCraken's rider is full of confidence. Despite winning the Breeders' Cup Classic aboard the Wilkes trained Fort Larned, Brian Hernandez, Jr. has never ridden better than he has in 2017. So much so, that he had a choice between top Derby contenders this spring and chose McCraken over Girvin. The young rider has already shown his meddle in big races, but is currently riding with more confidence than ever. Add in the fact that Churchill Downs is a track that he knows better than any, and you have the perfect recipe for Hernandez to end up in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle for the first time.

My final tickets will include a number of horses with him, but McCraken will be the one I use the most. I have him as third choice at 8-1 on my Kentucky Derby 2017 Early Odds, but I could easily see him go off as the fifth choice. Ideally, it will be the son of Ghostzapper striding to the wire in the final sixteenth, with either Gunnevera or Lookin At Lee rallying up into the place spot.

It is admittedly a wide open year, but McCraken is my top pick to win the 143rd Kentucky Derby.

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