Why Irap Will Win Travers Stakes 2017

This year’s season has been a little tough to figure for the three-year-old males. Upsets were a common theme on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the surprises have not slowed down since the first Saturday in May. This Saturday's Travers Stakes looks to be the definitive test for the crop this year, and the horse that wins is likely to get a real leg up on the race for the Eclipse Award. I believe that horse will be Irap.

Despite his ugly loss in the Kentucky Derby, I feel very confident that Irap has moved to the top of the class among his crop. We will not know for sure for another 24-plus hours, but of all the potential winners in the field, I certainly consider him the one most likely to win.

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Here is why I believe Irap will win the Travers Stakes:

The Kentucky Derby Result is a Throw-Out - Whether or not Irap was ready for prime time on the first Saturday in May is a fair question, but overall, we can see that the result of the Derby has not been a telling race moving forward at all. Run on a sloppy track, and full of bad trips, horses that ran well in the Derby have not come back to validate the result, while horses that finished well beaten that afternoon, have come back to show that they have much more than this year's Kentucky Derby result. I have learned to be very willing to draw a line right through this one, and Irap looks to be the most shining example.

He's Developing at the Right Time - I did not like Irap this spring. I did not like him in New Mexico, and I certainly did not like him against the likes of Practical Joke, McCraken, and Tapwrit at Keeneland. Even after that Blue Grass victory, I gave him little chance in the Derby. What I did see in Kentucky this spring, though, was a physical specimen ready to blossom. The big, good-looking son of Tiznow just needed time to flourish both physically and mentally. What I saw up close at the Indiana Derby was the manifestation of this development. As a good handicapper, I'm ready to shed prior beliefs. Irap has turned a corner, and my opinion of him has, as well.

Despite his Lack of Grade 1 Wins, He is Proven at This Class - In this year of 'who knows what will happen next' in this crop, the lack of a Grade 1 win on Irap's resume heading into the Travers, does not bother me at all. This division is waiting for someone new to take over, and that is Irap. Besides, his win in the Blue Grass was of Grade 1 quality, the horse he beat in Ohio came right back to win a big Grade 1, and while the quality of the Indiana Derby was not Grade 1, he absolutely dominated, and the horse he beat came right back to win the West Virginia Derby.

The Ohio Derby was a Key Race - If any race this year in the division looks to be a key race, it is the Ohio Derby. I love the way that Girvin and Irap quickly left the rest of the field in the dust, and I love the way they extended to the wire. Obviously, the fact that both came right out of that race with big performances in the Haskell and Indiana Derby respectively, only enhances what I saw at Thistledown. The fact that Irap was able to collar and defeat Girvin, after that classy horse looked home free, makes me like the winner of this key race all the more.

Doug O'Neill Knows How to Prepare a Horse for the Big Race - Make no mistake, this year's Travers is a Kentucky Derby type of race. In fact, I think it is a better race than this year's Derby. Having a trainer, who has already won a Preakness, and two editions of the Run for the Roses, is only a positive in this year's Mid-Summer Derby.

Tactically, He Sits a Good Trip - I believe Irap will sit a perfect trip on Saturday. Besides Always Dreaming, there is very little early speed in this year's Travers. This means horses who can be closer to the pace early should have the advantage. In all of his graded stakes wins, and some of his losses, as well, Irap has demonstrated the ability to lay close enough to the lead to be right there when the real running begins. He should find an excellent stalking trip from his outside post on Saturday, and the way he has finished off his last two races, that should be enough to be awfully hard to beat.

My final wagers will include a number of horses with him, but Irap will definitely be the one I use the most. I have him at at 8-1 on my Travers Stakes 2017: Odds and Analysis, and I was happy to see that Travis Stone, the oddsmaker at Saratoga, had the son of Tiznow no better than a co-fifth choice, also at 8-1, on the official morning line. Those kind of odds on your legitimate top choice are always intriguing.

It is admittedly a very deep and contentious edition of the Travers, but Irap is my top pick.