Why I Still Believe in Frosted

Frosted lost the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last Saturday. He finished third, beaten a neck. Shaman Ghost was the deserving winner, and I congratulate everyone involved. Jimmy Jerkens is an excellent horseman, and in this winner of the Queen’s Plate and Brooklyn, and now Woodward, he has a talented and improving colt who should continue to make noise in the older male division.

Of course, the Woodward was more than a simple Shaman Ghost victory, and a Frosted defeat. Judging by the many messages I’ve received, or the comments I’ve seen posted, it was not the victory of Shaman Ghost that was celebrated by all, but rather it was the loss of Frosted that was a joyous moment for many. As a fan of Frosted, his defeat was like a punch to the gut --seemingly a natural reaction when your favorite goes down to defeat. It hurt, but I soon got over it, as I have with all of his losses. As for those who danced on his losing performance in effigy -- to each his own. Personally, although Frosted is my favorite, I greatly enjoy watching horses like American Pharoah and California Chrome run. As a fan of horse racing, I find them to be marvels.

As for the Woodward, in my opinion, this was not Frosted’s best race. Having said that, to see so many call this race a flop, is something in which I cannot agree. Whether or not you choose to buy into the belief that little went right for Frosted on Saturday, the fact is that he gave weight, and he lost a very prestigious Grade 1 race by a neck. Those simple facts alone make it hard for me to fathom how some are now proclaiming the demise of the Godolphin owned runner.

In a lot of ways, the 2016 Woodward performance of Frosted reminds me of the race he ran in the Kentucky Derby. In both races, I wish he got off to a little better start, and was not shuffled back so far back off a rather slow early pace. In both, he gave up ground, but kept trying all the way to the wire. I must admit that in both, I wonder what might have been if given a different ride from Joel Rosario. In the Derby, he was never going to beat American Pharoah, but he fell just short of passing Dortmund for third. I believe he ran a very similar race in the Woodward. In fact, as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it just may have been ideal. Remember, after his Kentucky Derby run of last year, he came back five weeks later to run a very good race to be second in the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes in American Pharoah’s historic triumph.

Now Frosted will have nine weeks to be at his best on November 5. Ten furlongs on a fast track at Santa Anita should be right up his alley. Yes, that’s right, I really do not see him running in any other race than the biggest one. I’ve seen the Kiaran McLauglin trained gray run enough quality races around two-turns, whether it be wins in the Wood Memorial, Pennsylvania Derby, and Whitney, or the losses mentioned just above, to have all the confidence in the world that he will be just fine going the 1 ¼ miles of the Classic.

In the Met Mile, the four-year-old son of Tapit turned in one of the most impressive performance I’ve ever seen. For a reference point of my longevity of watching racing religiously, I've been doing so since the days of Secretariat. Perhaps it was the huge performance in the Met, though, that raised expectations so high, that he was bound to be lambasted for losing the Woodward. Or perhaps that stunning victory convinced many that he is a one-turn horse. To me, it was simply proof positive of what Frosted can do when everything went his way.

I’m not here to tell you that Frosted is the second coming. He’s clearly not. In fact, he’s won only a third of his races, and he’s finished second in another third. Growing up a racefan, it seemed that horses were allowed to lose much more than they are in the current climate of racing. Horses were not expected to win every time, nearly as much, and they were more appreciated for running many strong races -- especially when they continuously showed up in the big races. 

For the record, Frosted has run in 15 consecutive Grade 1 or Grade 2 races since late in his juvenile season. Nine have been G-1, and six were G-2. While I will be the first to admit that he has not run his best in every one, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic for example, he has won five of those 15, and he has cashed a check in 14 of them. Obviously, the four-year-old colt, who has won more than $3.9 million, is in the midst of an excellent career.

Owning a horse like Frosted would be a dream come true, but I do wonder why is it that Frosted has become my favorite horse since Rachel Alexandra retired six years ago. I guess the answer is complicated …

-I always saw a lot of ability in him, but at the same time, I wondered why he has lost a few of the races in which after the race I felt that he was best.

-He stands out in the field with his unusual gray coloring and his familiar blinkers, yet I wonder if those blinkers are enough to mask his quirkiness as a race horse.

-I love that he is a contemporary to such greats as American Pharoah and California Chrome, but I realize he is running out of chances to ever get a victory against either one.

-I appreciate knowing that he will show up in the most important dirt races in the world, but I am more than ready to see him put it all together in the biggest.

-Visiting Frosted in his barn, I know that I am more likely to get a bite than an affectionate nuzzle.

… Like I said, complicated, but maybe in the end, I recognize Frosted for his true character. Talented, but imperfect.

Santa Anita will not be easy. I know that. Facing horses like California Chrome, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, in my estimation, in his backyard, is obviously a major challenge. Honestly it’s a challenge I am very much looking forward to. Facing the best, in the biggest races -- it simply does not get any better than that. And win or lose in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I will continue to be a fan of Frosted. I will also be a strong believer in his ability and talent. No, the Woodward did nothing to shake my belief in him. I have no doubt that he is one of the best horses in the world, and I suspect someday he will be fully appreciated as such.