Who Will be 3yo Filly Champion?
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The 2011 racing season is now entering the homestretch. Horses and riders all over the nation are jockeying for position to reach the finish line first. One of the most interesting races, in my eyes, is the battle to be named Champion 3yo Filly of 2011. With just a race or two likely left for the primary contenders, I believe there are four sophomore fillies out in front. Each filly could make a case for the award right now, and in this race, they seem to be hitting the quarter pole in tandem. An argument could be made for a few others, but they would need to do something huge to surpass these four.
[Take a look at how close the Top 4 are on the latest HRN Power Ranking of 3yo fillies]
The first two fillies on the list, It’s Tricky and Royal Delta are from the category that normally wins the award – the dirt routers. Meanwhile, the next two sophomore stars, Turbulent Descent and Winter Memories represent the sprint and turf divisions respectively. While the most glamorous races for three-year-old fillies – Kentucky Oaks, Alabama, and the open to older Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic - are run on the main track, there is precedent for a sprinter or grass filly to win the award, if they are brilliant enough. In recent years, Wait A While, a turf filly, and Xtra Heat, a sprinter, both accomplished enough to prove best of the season.
Let’s take a look at the seasonal highlights of each filly to get a leg-up on the handicapping of this exciting race…
It’s Tricky – (6-4-1-0) Impressive wins in the Acorn, in which she beat Turbulent Descent, and the Coaching Club American Oaks, made her the leader of this division one month ago. Things changed though when she suffered a decisive loss to Royal Delta in the Alabama, and now she may have the most work to do of any of the top four. The daughter of Mineshaft can regain her winning ways and pad her bankroll in next week’s Cotillion Stakes, but it may well take a win in the Breeders’ Cup to nail down the award.
Royal Delta – (5-3-0-1) She may not be the most consistent one on this list, but when she is on, she is very, very good. A dominant win against a strong field in the Alabama has made her the now horse. Overcoming a poor race to begin the year, and a minor physical setback, any more wins this year to add to her impressive Black-Eyed-Susan and Alabama victories could be enough to become a champion. Having said that, it will not be easy, as her next two expected races, the Beldame and Ladies’ Classic likely mean facing the best older fillies, Havre de Grace and then Blind Luck, in back-to-back races.
Turbulent Descent – (5-3-2-0) After an undefeated juvenile season, she has continued with consistent excellence in 2011 while running in almost nothing but grade 1 races. She did suffer her first two losses this year, but those two second place finishes, with the last coming on a messy track in the Acorn, do little to take away from her lofty stature. She has been absolutely dominant at the seven furlong distance, which is exactly what she will see in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint. A win there could make it awfully hard for voters not to side with her as the most solid of the bunch.
Winter Memories – (5-4-0-0) Grass racing in America is not the biggest thing, but when you win races like this daughter of El Prado has won them, everyone is bound to notice. Her latest performance, a late-running virtuoso in the Grade 1 Garden City, undoubtedly makes her the most talked about filly on this list. She is the only one to take four graded stakes this year, with her only loss being easily excused by a bad trip. One more impressive win in the Grade 1 Queen Eliazabeth II Challenge Cup, in which she will be heavily favored, could likely make her the frontrunner going into the Breeders’ Cup. Her trainer maintains that she will not run in the BC, meaning her championship fate may be left to the others.
Now I suppose you want my opinion? OK, here it is … I think 2011 will be that rare year where a turf filly, or a sprinter, wins the Eclipse Award. I simply do not like the chances of any sophomore against either Havre de Grace or Blind Luck this fall. That leaves the door wide open for Turbulent Descent in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, and Winter Memories in the Queen Elizabeth II, to prove special enough to snatch the award … I like their chances, with Winter Memories getting the slightest of nods between the two.
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