What does California Chrome Need to Do?

I’ve heard all the detractors ... He hasn’t won a race in more than a year. He hasn’t won on dirt in about 20 months. Even when he was winning, his competition was weak. He never was even that good. I’m not buying any of it -- It’s time for these people to appreciate something good when they see it. California Chrome is the real deal, my friends … always has been.

So here we are again, the 2014 Horse of the Year is back, and it seems that he still struggles to get the full respect that he deserves. It's crazy to have to defend his past accomplishments, but this rags to riches son of Lucky Pulpit has won half of his 18 lifetime starts, scored in eight stakes, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and has banked better than $6.3 million. A Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt, he has travelled all over the country, and the world, to run well. I mean really -- what more does California Chrome need to prove?

The answer is nothing, but the good news is, he’s probably going to accomplish a whole lot more before it’s said and done. Happy, healthy, and now physically mature, I expect the Art Sherman trainee to come back good … real good.

Initial evidence of that can be seen in his string of workouts the past two months. With his customary blinkers back on, and Victor Espinoza in the saddle, it seemed like old times with a big bullet workout last Saturday in front of the race day fans at Santa Anita. The coppered-colored chestnut officially signaled his readiness for his San Pasqual engagement.

Having said that -- He does not need to win his first race back in 9 ½ months to move forward to his old Horse of the Year type quality. Let me repeat that -- He does not need to win Saturday for him to have a big year in 2016. That’s right, as good as I expect him to be this year, getting upset on Saturday would neither be the end of the world, nor would it mean he is a washed-up has-been.

Horses should be allowed to lose on the way to getting better, even the really good ones, and after all the time off, we should not expect the best from him quite yet. Workouts are one thing, races are another.

Do I think California Chrome will win on Saturday? Yes I do, but my point is he does not have to in order to have a big season in 2016. He’s been away for a long time, and no matter how well cranked Art Sherman has him, he’s bound not to be at 100%. Nor should he, with races like the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic coming in different stages of this year’s racing calendar.

Admittedly, his competition did not come up overly strong for his comeback race, with only his old rival Hoppertunity being a horse of true Grade 1 quality. It’s also been a while between trips to the winner’s circle for the horse that finished second to Chrome in the 2014 Santa Anita Derby, but his last two races of 2015, good seconds in both the Fayette and the Clark, point out his fine current form.

So with Hoppertunity likely to be knocking on the door, California Chrome will probably need to run a good one to send his many fans home happy. I say at 85% or so he can probably get the job done, but remember, even a second place finish to Hoppertunity would set him up very well for the rest of his last year on the racetrack.

So while both sides of the fence, detractors and fans, might light up social media if Chrome happens to lose on Saturday, I will be sitting back with the realization that this comeback race is merely a means to a much larger end.