Top Picks in the 2015 Kentucky Oaks

Everyone is talking about the Kentucky Derby, but what about the girls? The 2015 Kentucky Oaks is also coming up big. This year’s run for the lilies is deep and classy, and should offer some great betting opportunities. Let’s take a look at the field from top picks down ...

The Top Two

Stellar Wind (Curlin--Evening Star, by Malibu Moon) – This one would seem to have it all. Her form is stellar, and still improving. After an unlucky loss in her career debut, she has dominated her competition in three straight, culminating with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. She is bred to love nine furlongs and longer. She has a running style that should do very well in the demanding Kentucky Oaks, with enough tactical speed to find good position early, before uncoiling a lethal turn of foot. I don't think she has beaten much in California, but I like her chances to step up against the big girls in winning fashion.

Birdatthewire (Summer Bird--My Limit, by Wagon Limit) – Speaking of fillies and with progressive form, and bred to go long, just take a look at the Gulfstream Park Oaks. As hard as her rider tried to restrain her on several occasions in the early stages of the race, it is quite remarkable that she was able to still turn it on down the stretch and win going away. She's looked like an Oaks filly since a nice maiden win at Churchill Downs last fall, and her last was definitely her best yet. Hopefully, she learned her lesson for trainer Dale Romans, and will be more relaxed on Oaks Day. If she has, Birdatthewire is a major contender to wear the lilies.

The Biggest Threats

I’m A Chatterbox (Munnings--Chit Chatter, by Lost Soldier) – All she does is win. She announced herself in the Silverbulletday, verified that performance in the Rachel Alexandra, and rightly grabbed her throne as the Queen of New Orleans with a third straight stakes win in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Her trainer, Larry Jones, certainly knows good fillies, and how to win on the first Friday in May, so it would come as no surprise to see I'm A Chatterbox carry on in the tradition of the likes of Proud Spell and Believe You Can. An increase in distance and level of competition could be her undoing in the Oaks, but she is clearly a serious threat.

Oceanwave (Harlan's Holiday--Tamboz, by Tapit) – The Kentucky Oaks may finally provide the contentous early pace that this late running gray has been craving. The extra sixteenth of a mile should not hurt at all either. She may have finished second in both the Honeybee and the Fantasy, but I really believe that she was the best young filly in both races at Oaklawn Park. You know she will be finishing well, and if the pace collapses at all, Oceanwave should be there to pick up the pieces late. At double digits on the oddsboard, she will offer excellent betting value.

Catch Me if You Can

Condo Commando (Tiz Wonderful--Yearly Report, by General Meeting) - Her five victories have been so dominant, that the New York frontrunner could go favored against this strong Oaks field. The problem for her is that both the amount of early pace, and the level of competition will be stoked way up at Churchill Downs. If she is good enough to turn away all of the expected pressure, I will be duly impressed, but I am prepared to take a stand against her this time. If she wins this, she beats me.

In With A Shot

Include Betty (Include--Betty’s Solutions, by Eltish) – Little Miss Silky Sullivan. Since arriving a maiden to Tampa Bay Downs, this chestnut filly has come from the absolute clouds to win in each of her three races on the dirt this year, including a victory in Oaklawn Park's Fantasy. The Tom Proctor got the jump on Oceanwave that afternoon, before holding her off late. Like the filly she just beat, she will be looking for a pace meltdown, but of the two, I like the potential for improvement of Oceanwave a little better.

Puca (Big Brown--Boat’s Ghost, by Silver Ghost) – I’m not big on the name, but I still believe this one has a lot of talent under the hood. Much watched since a 16-length maiden win last October at Belmont Park, she has been unable to break through in three stakes tries for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The good news is that she is getting closer, and in her last, in which she had to chase Condo Commando all the way around in the Gazelle, she found herself decidedly against the pace dynamics of the race. A good trip in the Oaks could spell a big performance.

Lovely Maria (Majesticperfection--Thundercupt, by Thunder Gulch) – She could not handle her stablemate, I'm A Chatterbox two starts back in the Rachel Alexandra, but her continuous improvement in three starts this year is very evident. She found a little bit weaker field in her latest, the Grade 1 Ashland, and proved much the best. I still like others better, but I would not talk anyone off the improving filly who afforded Kerwin Clark his first Grade 1 victory.

The Pretenders

Luminance (Tale of the Cat--Emerald Gal, by Unbridled's Song) – Undoubtedly a talented filly for trainer Bob Baffert, she could not put up too much of a fight against Stellar Wind in the Santa Anita Oaks, and expecting her to turn the tables here, seems like a stretch.

Sarah Sis (Sharp Humor--Emerald Gal, by Gilded Time) – A consistent sort for trainer Ingrid Mason did run into trouble in the Fantasy, but the step up in competition will likely prove a bit too much for her.

Angela Renee (Bernardini--Pilfer, by Bernardini) – The well bred filly has lost four straight since winning the Grade 1 Chandilier last fall at Santa Anita. The Oaks will be her third race back, but if she could not truly challenge Lovely Maria last time, I cannot like her in here.

Shook Up (Tapit--Sugar Shake, by Awesome Again) – She was a hot commodity after a 13 plus length maiden win on January 3, but unfortunately, has been unable to handle I'm A Chatterbox or Lovely Maria in three straight since.

Eskenformoney (Eskendereya--But for Money, by Not for Love) – Experienced and well named filly has lost two straight to Birdatthewire, and I think situationally, things will be much tougher for her in the Oaks.

Maybellene (Lookin At Lucky--Greathearted, by Giant's Causeway) – Her career best in the recent Sunland Park Oaks is still a cut below what it will take to be a factor at the big one at Churchill Downs.