Top Candidates for the Inaugural Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager

Placing a future wager on America’s most celebrated race just got a little more interesting with the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager. For the first time, a future wager on sires will be offered, starting with the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs will unveil the new wager over the Thanksgiving weekend, and the rules will be simple -- select the stallion that sires next year’s Derby winner, and cash your bet. Just as their normal Kentucky Derby future wager, the sire offering will have 23 options (choices yet to be determined), and the field of everyone else will be #24. With this in mind, here are some of the most interesting candidates likely to be on the list when it comes out in a few weeks.

Uncle Mo - Has been hot, hot, hot with his first year runners in 2015. The champion son of Indian Charlie has made the race for the top spot on the freshman sire list a laugher, and with the undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Nyquist, leading the way, he has more quality juveniles than any sire in the country. Until they win at ten furlongs, though, distance questions concerning Uncle Mo offspring will persist, but still, due to the quality of his two-year-old crop, he has to be one of the most popular names on this wager.

Medaglia d’Oro - Once again one of the top sires in the nation, the Darley stallion has a very interesting candidate for next year’s Derby in the filly, Songbird. Most would agree that she has been the best juvenile of either gender this year, and having already sired a Preakness winning filly in Rachel Alexandra, you have to wonder whether Medaglia d’Oro cannot turn the trick on the first Saturday in May with his new superstar filly.

Tapit - America’s leading sire once again, no sire future wager worth its salt would be complete without the inclusion of Tapit. The Gainesway stallion looks to have plenty of talented juveniles, and it should come as no surprise that the undefeated Nashua winner, Mohaymen, and the regal looking Conquest Big E, from the Mark Casse barn, look to be two of the more interesting candidates for next spring’s classics.

Birdstone - A Belmont Stakes winner himself, there can be little doubt as to whether Birdstone’s progeny can get the distance. This year, the Gainesway stallion brings us Swipe, who has yet to get by Nyquist in four tries, but his last two efforts were close, and the way he finished the BC Juvenile, he has his connections dreaming of roses.

Giant’s Causeway - Another fixture among the United States’ leading sires, the 18-year-old Coolmore stud always has winterbook options, but in the late-running Brody's Cause, he could have one of his strongest Kentucky Derby contenders yet. For my money, the Dale Romans Grade 1 winner could be the most likely horse of all to arrive to Louisville next spring as one of the ones to beat.

Curlin - My Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pick, Exaggerator, came up a little short when fourth, but I am far from ready to give up on the Keith Desormeaux trained Saratoga Special winner. Obviously, he is not the only candidate for the Lane’s End sire, and as well as the two-time Horse of the Year is going at stud of late, it is easy to imagine him being a Derby winning sire sooner than later.

Bernardini - One of A.P. Indy’s greatest sons, Bernardini has several very talented two-year-olds in 2015, including the Champagne winner, Greenpointcrusader, the very talented filly, Rachel’s Valentina, and the promising colt from the Shug McGaughey barn, Sail Ahoy.

Colonel John - A young Tiznow sire, who himself finished sixth in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, Colonel John is the sire of two top Kentucky Derby contenders. Cocked and Loaded is a multiple stakes winner, who is already proven at Churchill Downs, while Airoforce has proven to be top notch on the grass, and will get his chance on the dirt in the soon to be run Kentucky Jockey Club.

Candy Ride - His best son, Shared Belief never got the chance to run in the Kentucky Derby, but this year, in Gun Runner, the highly successful Argentine-bred sire has a colt that could get him there. One of the more interesting juveniles in the nation, Gun Runner has yet to test stakes company, but judging from his first two starts in Kentucky, it is just a matter of time before he moves right into graded stakes company.

Harlan’s Holiday - A very solid sire for years, we lost Harlan’s Holiday far too early at the age of 14. Among the stars of one of his final crops is the undefeated Annual Report, who finished with an eye-catching flourish to win the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont Park in his second career start.

Include - One of my favorite distance sires, Include looks to have a Canadian champion in Riker. 4-for-4 north of the border, I thought the Nick Gonzalez trainee ran a very good race stepping up in class in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He faded just a bit late, but improvement with maturity, as offspring of Include often do, could find him right there with the best of his crop.

Scat Daddy - One of the nation’s best juvenile sires of 2015, Scat Daddy continues to churn out good horses. Some of his best this year include fillies like Pretty N Cool and Nickname, but he also has some very interesting candidates in turf horses like Conquest Daddyo and Azar, who could well try dirt before the run for the roses rolls around.

War Front - Another on the list who appears to have a little stronger hand on the turf, in fact in Air Force Blue and Hit it a Bomb, he has two of the top juvenile turf horses in the world. Whether or not that translates to serious Kentucky Derby contenders remains to be seen, but there can be no doubt that War Front is siring good young horses en masse.

Square Eddie - Might seem a bit of a flyer, but the son Smart Strike has had a really solid year with his third crop. Chief among them is the Grade 1 Hopeful winner, Ralis, from the same connections that brought us I’ll Have Another.

Mineshaft - I still have high hopes for this former Horse of the Year as a big time sire -- Effinex not withstanding, I feel like the best is still yet to come. Perhaps impressive maiden Churchill Downs winner, Bandwidth can make a Derby run, although his return race was a bit of a disappointment.

Malibu Moon - The classically bred stallion, and the sire of the Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, Malibu Moon continues a stellar stallion career in 2015. While his top juvenile to date has only won sprinting against New York-breds, more sons of Malibu Moon can be expected to join the trail as we get closer to May.

Pioneerof The Nile - Truth be told, I have not fallen for any of the Pioneerof The Nile juveniles as of yet, but sire a Triple Crown winner, and you are on auto-respect for at least a few years.