Too Early to Dismiss Flashback
The horse in question happens to be the 1997 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Silver Charm. In his sixth lifetime start (yes, that was considered lightly raced 16 years ago) Silver Charm found himself in a blistering speed duel in the Santa Anita Derby with the talented filly, Sharp Cat. Softened up by the grueling fractions, the eventual near Triple Crown winner could not hold off the rush of Free House down the stretch, and finished a very game second in his final prep for the run for the roses.
Now, I’m not ready to call Flashback the next Silver Charm, of course, but to see all the comments that followed his first defeat yesterday, I have to say that it seems way too early to dismiss this talented colt as a possible Kentucky Derby winner. Sure he was a little too headstrong for his own good in the San Felipe, but considering this was only his third lifetime start, and the fact that he battled the talented Goldencents into submission and in taxing early fractions, I consider it to have been a very good performance. Not surprisingly, his three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer seemed to agree.
“I think he ran well despite all that. He had a nice, tough race and he got tired at the end, considering he went so fast, but I think we learned a lot about him today,” said Baffert. “I think we were just intimidated by the free speed today, and the rail, so you learn from racing. That’s what these preps are all about.”
After the race, I also noticed many a glowing comment concerning the winner of the race, Hear the Ghost. Many of these statements intimated that if he could rally like this 1 1/16 miles, just think what he could do at a mile and a quarter. I’m here to tell you that reasoning is very flawed, and for more than one reason.
First of all, the San Felipe was a textbook scenario for a horse to pick up the pieces. Flashback and Goldencents went at it tooth and nail for as long as they could. 99 times out of 100, when this happens, any closer worth his weight in salt will come and get the survivor of the duel. The fact that Flashback was still very much in the picture at the finish speaks to his class.
The second aspect of the above reasoning that is flawed is in the assumption that horses that close fast at shorter distances will automatically real in the same horse at a longer distance. It actually rarely works out that way. A slower pace in the longer race generally makes the speed all the more difficult to wrangle in, and as any experienced handicapper knows, just because a horse rallies at a shorter race, does not always mean he will do the same in longer races.
Don’t get me wrong, Hear the Ghost, also making only his third lifetime start, looks like a colt with a future, but given the choice between the two, I will have few qualms about selecting Flashback next time. Nothing I saw yesterday makes me doubt that he is a very talented horse.