Zipse: Is Breeders’ Cup Classic right spot for Rich Strike?

Should Rich Strike run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

The answer to that question is clearly yes. The son of Keen Ice won the Kentucky Derby at the same 1 1/4-mile distance and is currently in top form after solid efforts in both the Travers (G1) and Lukas Classic (G2).

Holding him out of the $6 million Classic to instead wait for the $750,000 Clark (G1) 20 days later at Churchill Downs would not be the sporting thing to do.

Such a decision would be the same as admitting their horse is not good enough, which would be in direct opposition to trainer Eric Reed’s taking a winning shot with the colt as an 80-1 long shot on the first Saturday in May.

Connections say Rich Strike will go in Breeders’ Cup Classic.

With a good workout over the Keeneland main track under his belt, four furlongs in 47.6 seconds last Saturday, I fully expect to see Rich Strike join the fun Nov. 5 at Keeneland.

This means the real question should be can Rich Strike win the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Unfortunately, the answer to that question is much harder to answer with any sort of confidence.

While I maintain the reason the RED TR-Racing-owned colt won the Kentucky Derby this year was because of an unnatural early pace that allowed him and rider Sonny Leon to come from the clouds and pick up all the pieces, the fact is he won the Kentucky Derby.

He was the horse on that day and was good enough to beat 19 of the best 3-year-old dirt horses in the world. That never can be taken away from him.

Having won America’s most prestigious race, he deserves a shot in America’s best race. But if you thought the Derby was a daunting task, the Breeders’ Cup Classic only will be that much tougher.

In handicapping the race that will decide the title of 2022 Horse of the Year, the discussion cannot start anywhere else but Flightline.

The 4-year-old son of Tapit has been otherworldly in his first five career races. To this point he appears to be in another realm than the rest. Still somewhat untested, he will need to prove his superiority in his toughest test yet.

Adding to the difficulty of Rich Strike pulling off another huge upset in a few weeks will be the track. Clearly he likes Churchill Downs. It was the site of his only two career wins and also where he ran a big race last out in the Lukas Classic.

If this year’s Breeders’ Cup were held at Churchill Downs, I would give Rich Strike a better chance. But Keeneland is a different story. The other major track in Kentucky is not nearly as kind to late runners as is the host of the Kentucky Derby.

Plenty has been made about Rich Strike’s last two races. After a dull run in the Belmont Stakes, he was quickly dubbed a fluke, a one-hit wonder who probably would not win another race after his Kentucky Derby shocker.

Well, he hasn’t won another race yet. But in both the Travers, where he rallied for fourth and was very close to second, and the Lukas Classic, where he lost a tough battle to the good older horse Hot Rod Charlie, Rich Strike showed signs of being a legitimate, Grade 1 horse.

Fans want to root for the Cinderella story, and he will be as recognizable as any horse to the general public at the Breeders’ Cup. It’s quite understandable that they reveled in his improved efforts after the Belmont disappointment.

As a handicapper of big races for more years than I’d care to admit, I fall somewhere in the middle on the upward mobility of our Kentucky Derby winner.

On the one hand, I see a horse who easily could have been second behind division leader Epicenter in the Travers and could have won the Lukas Classic. But he didn’t.

In both races, without that crazy pace of the Derby, he got there in time but could not get by good horses like Cyberknife, Zandon and Hot Rod Charlie. That fact does not bode well for his chances in a stacked Breeders’ Cup Classic.

On the other hand, he is a young horse who we know can handle the 10 furlongs of the Classic. He also appears to be improving at exactly the right time. This is the time of year when 3-year-olds have gained enough in maturity to compete with and beat their older competition, if they’re good enough.

Is Rich Strike good enough? My money will say no, but what a story it would be if he could somehow do it again.