This Week in Racing: Offering early Pegasus World Cup odds

With a rather slow week of racing concluding yesterday, I thought this to be the perfect time to do something a little different on This Week in Racing. The second running of the $16 million Pegasus World Cup is a mere five weeks away, and the field for the big race at Gulfstream Park is starting to come into focus. I fully expect the starting gate to be filled out with 12, but as of today, these are the nine horses I expect to lead the way. Here is my early analysis ...

Gun Runner (4-5)

If not for the overshadowing presence of Arrogate, and everything that went with that in 2017, I believe even more accolades would be showered on this 4-year-old son of Candy Ride. Five wins and one strong second in six races, including four authoritative Grade 1 victories to close out his season, makes his one of the strongest Horse of the Year seasons in recent years. That title will be bestowed upon him just days before he takes to the track for the 19th and final time on Jan. 27. Winning the world's richest race in his career finale would be an ideal way to cap a sensational career, and the way he's been going now for more than a year, and even with a target on his back, it's hard to imagine an alternate ending. He's got the speed, athleticism, and heart to dominate any race. Most of all, though, Gun Runner has the class to prove best of the best once again.

Collected (9-2)

Speaking of solid seasons in 2017, this son of City Zip did little wrong this year. In fact, only Gun Runner could deny him a perfect season. Of course, his year is not quite over, as he will look to add another graded stakes win when he looms a big favorite in Tuesday's Grade 2 San Antonio. That one should serve as a well-timed prep for his sojourn to South Florida. If he does win the prep on opening day at Santa Anita, it will actually leave him with an identical 6-5-1-0 record as the soon to be Horse of the Year. As we know, though, not all records are created equally. In the Breeders' Cup Classic, and with home field advantage, Collected ran fast early, looked Gun Runner in the eye, but could not stick with him. Pegasus running strategy will be interesting, but to expect a better result this time around might just be wishful thinking.

West Coast (6-1)

As was the case in the Classic, this soon to be 3-year-old Male Champion will join his stablemate Collected in their pursuit to knock Gun Runner of his lofty perch. This time around, he may do better than third. Armed with a strong first try against older horses, the improving Bob Baffert trainee should be primed to make even more noise in his four-year-old debut. The son of Flatter got better and better throughout the year, highlighted by wins in the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby, but did not do his absolute best running in the final quarter mile at Del Mar. With a strong pace in front of him, assuming he employs a similar running style that he did in the Breeders' Cup, he likely looms the biggest threat to the champ.

Sharp Azteca (10-1)

While his participation in the Pegasus World Cup is not official, I find it hard to believe that this horse can be kept out, considering his fondness for the Gulfstream strip, and how well he is running of late. Assuming he will be in, he adds a dangerous level of early pace to the race, and most specifically, the task of Gun Runner. His last two, the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and the Cigar Mile were both world class efforts. Throw in the new rider aspect, with Javier Castellano having ridden him so perfectly at Aqueduct, and you have a dangerous commodity. Can he really hang with Gun Runner late? I have my doubts, but I respect what he would bring to the race.

Gunnevera (15-1)

As outlined above, the Pegasus will not be a race lacking in early pace. With that said, it certainly opens the door for late runners. Of them, I believe Gunnevera to be the most dangerous. Gulfstream is a track he's very familiar with, and he is working well in South Florida for this big shot. The strong winner of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here in March has run in a lot of big races since then, with only mixed results. Still, the son of Dialed In consistently makes his move, and with fast fractions, over a track he likes, there is good reason to believe that he could fare better than his fifth-place result when last seen in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Stellar Wind (15-1)

My how things have changed for the Champion Three-Year-Old Filly of 2015. The favorite for the Breeders' Cup Distaff threw in absolute stinker in what was believed to be her final career race. Six million dollars later, she now looks to make her swan song for new connections of Chad Brown and Coolmore. The lone female in the Pegasus is not without hope for her new team, but she will need to completely turn around her last performance. The daughter of Curlin was very consistent before that, so maybe she can. On her best, she rates a chance to stalk and pounce, but that only becomes a threat for the top spot if Gun Runner is far from his best.

Toast of New York (15-1)

As interesting an entrant as Stellar Wind is, this was is even more intriguing. Who would have thought a few months ago that we would be talking about the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up as a threat in the 2018 Pegasus? But that is exactly what has transpired. Kudos to horse and trainer, Jamie Osborne, for being ready to win after a three-year plus layoff earlier this month at Lingfield. Now the task becomes infinitely more difficult for another trip to America to face the top dirt horses in training at Gulfstream Park. To me, it all seems like too much, but I will say that there is a ton of quality in this horse as evidenced by his runs in races like the UAE Derby, Pacific Classic, and BC Classic. Hopefully, this is just another step on his return to high quality racing.

Seeking the Soul (20-1)

My opinion is that owner Charles Fipke is not running his best horse in the Pegasus. His star female, Forever Unbridled, would have a better shot in the big race, but she is already a made mare. Now Fipke looks to have his cake and eat it too by running a horse who is clearly in the best form of his career. As much as his last two, at Keeneland, and in the Grade 1 Clark, were career bests for the Dallas Stewart-trainee, this spot is only that much tougher. I believe his class, or lack thereof will be exposed on January 27. I can understand the want to strike while the iron is hot, but this is not the right spot for a good, but not great, runner.

War Story  (20-1)

This story is a familiar one. I actually appreciate owner Ron Paolucci and his penchant for running his horses in the big races. Often overmatched, they are there to compete, and every so often they surprise. War Story has been a warrior for Loooch Racing for years, and they've been rewarded with a solid bank account. The 5-year-old gelding ran fifth in this race last year, and comes in off of likely the best race of his career when he finished a good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Brooklyn winner will once again be a longshot, but crazier things have happened.