This Week in Racing: Kentucky Derby 2018 takes shape

Upsets were all the rage early on, but the big names have now righted the ship on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail. Building upon strong wins by Audible, Mendelssohn, and Magnum Moon in recent weeks, Justify, Good Magic, and Vino Rosso all stepped up to the plate with solid victories over the weekend.

In Saturday's most-anticipated race, Justify appears to have clinched his place as this year's Kentucky Derby favorite with a stylish front-running score over Bolt d'Oro in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Taking over the race right from the start, the hugely talented son of Scat Daddy was never going to be beaten after cruising on an easy lead down the backstretch. The Bob Baffert-trainee handled the assignment of facing his first quality competition with aplomb, having plenty in the tank to turn away the challenge of Bolt d'Oro early in the Santa Anita stretch.

It was all pretty easy. Probably too easy for a horse who only began his career in February. I'm not sure that this race offered enough of an education for a horse who has never raced outside of Santa Anita. I respect the talent, but I do expect that everything that comes with the Kentucky Derby will be a little too much for him. Despite all of his ability, I will not be betting on the favorite in this year's Run for the Roses.

My feeling is that Bolt d'Oro would have been the winner had he been in either the Blue Grass or the Wood Memorial, but the task of chasing Justify proved a bit too much on Saturday. Javier Castellano held him back from Justify early, which should prove a positive, moving forward to 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. As will the building experience, and having another solid performance under his belt. Anyone who liked Bolt d'Oro going in should not be dismayed by this defeat. This was a race not setup in his favor. Things will be far different in the Derby, and now you have odds.

It was nice to see Good Magic bounce back after a disappointing run in the Fountain of Youth. It was also good to see an Eclipse Award winner earn his second career victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. The handsome son of Curlin looked the part pre-race, and did everything right to find great position early on. From there, he proved best down the lane, validating his big win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. Having said that, it was not a Mendelssohn, Justify, or Audible type of impressive, so I do think he will need to move forward once again, to win the Derby. And that's certainly possible. He improved with each start at two, peaking in his third start. Trainer Chad Brown has him on the same pattern for the first Saturday in May.

Meanwhile, Vino Rosso, also a son of two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin, took a big step in the right direction after a flat performance in the Tampa Bay Derby. Previous to that, he had looked the part of a real up and comer -- and now he does again. It was a roughly run Wood Memorial stretch, and in fact, I was surprised that he did not get disqualified, but I certainly believe the best horse won in his battle with the Gotham winner, Enticed. Just like I felt after the Sam F. Davis, Vino Rosso, one of four top Derby contenders from the barn of Todd Pletcher, looks to be a horse who should love 10 furlongs, and one that may be maturing at the right time. Likely bet no more than as the seventh choice in Louisville, he is my top Kentucky Derby longshot.

What I'm about to say next may surprise you, but I believe the best 3-year-old in the nation may have actually run Friday. Analyze It was a tiger on the turf in two extremely impressive runs at age 2. After the winter off, it sure looks as though the son of Point of Entry is even better this year. His Transylvania Stakes win at Keeneland on Friday was picture perfect, and his acceleration in mid-stretch is a rare commodity found only in the good ones.

I realize it's apples to oranges comparing dirt horses to turf horses, but this is the most impressive young grass horse that I can recall seeing in American racing. With a trainer who clearly knows how to handle turf horses, in Chad Brown, Analyze It is well on his way to becoming a very special horse.

Certainly not as impressive as Analyze It, but also a clear leader of her peer group, Rushing Fall returned in the pink on Sunday with a facile victory in Keeneland's Appalachian Stakes. Like Good Magic, e Five Racing-owned, and Chad Brown-trained, the daughter of More Than Ready is now 4-for-4 lifetime, with the last three coming in graded stakes racing. I'm not ready to talk about her in the same glowing terms which I use for Analyze It, but clearly, she is the best 3-year-old turf filly in the land at this point.

Like the Derby preps, the Kentucky Oaks preps saw the favorites run big. At Keeneland, Monomoy Girl looks to have secured her place as the favorite on May 4 with a dominating victory in the Ashland Stakes. Heavily favored, the talented Tapizar filly took over things early and never looked back on her way to a romping win. With speed horses lining up for the Oaks, it will likely take a different kind of performance tactically to win that one, but she certainly as earned her place as the filly to beat. Second-place finisher Eskimo Kisses made up a lot of ground from last, which could set her up as a real upset potential filly for the Oaks.

Out West, I continue to love what I see from Midnight Bisou. Despite the consistent excellence of Monomoy Girl, this daughter of Midnight Lute has been my No. 1-ranked Oaks filly all year, and I thought her victory in the Santa Anita Oaks was her best race yet. Farther from the early pace than every before, she uncorked a spectacular rally, on her way to an another easy graded stakes win. She continues to remind me of the champion Blind Luck, possessing an electrifying ability to pick off horses and then scamper home to the wire. She will be my top pick on the first Friday in May.

And last, but certainly not least, Army Mule finally made his stakes debut on Saturday, and his Grade 1 Carter Handicap competition was sorry that he did. It seems odd to say finally, considering that the Vinny Viola charge was making only his third career start, but of course, we have known about his talent now for a long time.

Unbeaten and untested, the 4-year-old son of Friesan Fire could be truly any kind. His Carter performance was outstanding, and one that sets him up as a huge threat in the prestigious Met Mile in early June. Awesome Slew, making his seasonal debut, ran a very good race to rally wide and easily be second best, but this one was all about the winner.  ZATT's Star of the Week, is ... Army Mule!