This Week in Racing: Justify in for a true Triple Crown test

Ever since Affirmed crossed the finish line narrowly in front of his arch rival Alydar, the fickle tides of fate seemed dead set against the idea of another horse joining the exclusive fraternity of Triple Crown winners. Spectacular Bid, one of the greatest horses in American racing history, was beaten in the Belmont Stakes the very next year, and so it went.

Beginning with The Bid in 1979 and ending with the popular California Chrome in 2014, a total 13 horses collected a pair of wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to fall short in their bid to become the 12th horse ever to sweep the Triple Crown. Then came American Pharoah.

Armed with a fluid stride and the best Triple Crown trainer perhaps in history, American Pharoah was able to end the 37-year drought in style, winning the 1 1/2-mile "Test of the Champion" in dominating fashion. The victory sent waves of ecstasy through the racing community and briefly put the sport back into the headlines of sports pages everywhere. It felt great to have a Triple Crown winner again. 

An anomaly given to us only as a break between long suffering droughts, or was American Pharoah the beginning of a new era of horses who could actually get the arduous task done? 

With many of the same racing attributes as American Pharoah, and in the same barn of Bob Baffert, we now await with bated breath to see if Justify can join his immortal stablemate.

Recent history, or racing history of the last 40 years, has taught us that Justify has the odds stacked against him. Twelve furlongs at Belmont, three grueling races within five weeks, and fresh horses all conspire to deny Justify, and racing fans, another Triple Crown champion.

Justify is no student of history, though. The longstanding Curse of Apollo was vanquished by this powerhouse colt in a decisive run through the slop of Louisville. Unbeaten, he was perhaps first really tested over another soggy racetrack, this time at Old Hilltop. With the 2-year-old champ going head and head with him for the first mile, the decorated son of Scat Daddy had every reason in the world to be a tired horse in the final stages of the 1 3/16-mile Preakness. And he was, but still he had enough to retain his unblemished record.

But what of that Preakness ... Was the diminishing margin of victory a sign that Justify is doomed to join the group of Spectacular Bid, California Chrome, and so many others between them? Or rather was it real experience for a colt in need of some true racing experience?

By the way Justify has trained in the two weeks since the middle jewel, you could easily say that he is better off for the hard run at Pimlico. Like a great athlete that he is, he seems to be only thriving from the work, and ready to bring his best to the grand and large stage that is Belmont Park. Still, it may not be enough.

To my eye, Hofburg and Vino Rosso are 12-furlong horses. When most horses tire, I believe they are the pair that will keep on running all the way to the wire. In a lot of ways, they both remind me of Birdstone, who ran only an OK Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, and then finished with a flourish, while the valiant Smarty Jones reached the eighth pole a tired horse.

It was a bitter pill to swallow as Smarty Jones had been the best horse in all three legs of the Triple Crown, but it all finally caught up with him in the final yards of the toughest test these horses will ever face. The same could happen to this year's big horse.

In the end, I believe it may be as simple as the first mile of the 2018 Belmont Stakes. If Justify and jockey Mike Smith can work out a relatively easy time of it for the first two-thirds of the race, it can then allow the Derby and Preakness champ to do his thing for the final four furlongs. On the other hand, if too much work is needed to be done early, the final furlong could prove to be a near impossible task for the best horse in the race. 

As a fan, I want to see Justify cruise early, and dominate late. As a handicapper, I want to see Justify tested early, and a few others come running late. Either way, this Belmont is going to be a helluva show.