This Week in Racing: Will Justify reign as 'Sultan of Slop'?
Perhaps it has happened before my time, but I cannot recall a year where both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness have come up sloppy. It's really a shame that it happened this year, because Justify appears to be a horse who doesn't need an off track to do big things. Still, the horrid condition of the track for both of the first two legs of the Triple Crown can't help but make me wonder what would have happened if the racing surfaces had come up fast.
Don't get me wrong, the grand looking son of Scat Daddy is a deserving winner of the first two-thirds of the crown. He was clearly best at Churchill Downs, and at Pimlico he overcame near race long pressure from the 2-year-old champ to get to the wire first. Keep in mind, he also won the Santa Anita Derby over a fast track. Having said that, the challenges he will face in the Belmont Stakes on June 9 are long, although one less because of the duplicate ownership, and subsequent excuses coming from the Audible camp. That situation is a mess, but regardless of the presence of the fast-closing third in the Derby, Justify has his work cut out for him.
The Preakness was not easy, and now he will be asked to carry his speed another 5/16 of a mile. In opposition will be a decent sized field made up of primarily horses who will enter the starting gate much fresher. In my mind, Vino Rosso and Hofburg, both of whom skipped the Preakness, look like horses who will appreciate the demanding 12 furlongs of the Belmont much more than Justify.
Add to all this the fact that Justify has already done so much in a short amount of time, having not made his career debut until a maiden sprint three months ago, and you can see why I believe the Triple Crown may be lost in the final few furlongs over the sandy oval at Belmont Park. The fact is, over a fast track at Belmont Park, I am of the belief that this will be another year when the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner falls a bit short in the final leg.
That's on a fast track. But what if, dare I say, the heavens open up again. Call it climate change or just dumb luck. I have a strange feeling we might see yet another off track in 12 days. Wouldn't that be something? The odds of each leg of the Triple Crown coming up sloppy have to be astronomical, but in a year of strange happenings -- see Apollo's Curse -- why not?
Justify is not a horse who needs a sloppy track to win important races, but the Triple Crown, five weeks at extended distances, slop might be just the thing that puts him into the record books. If so, he would join Seattle Slew as the only undefeated winner of the Triple Crown. He would also forever be known as the Sultan of Slop.
Accelerate much the best in the Gold Cup
With the Belmont Stakes still nearly two weeks away, the American racing scene bides its time through the holiday weekend. On Saturday at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Gold Cup was run and won in impressive fashion. It still feels weird to watch a Gold Cup anywhere but Hollywood, but that makes little difference to Accelerate and team.
The son of Lookin at Lucky ran some strong races at 3 and at 4, including his shocking romp over Arrogate in last year's San Diego, but he also was a horse who you could never quite count on in the big spots. Now 5, he seems to have become a model of consistency for Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler. A meeting with West Coast will come, but for now, no older horse has done as much as Accelerate.
Coming into the Gold Cup, he had already run three strong races. In February, he accounted for the San Pasqual. Five weeks later he scored his biggest victory to date when winning the prestigious Santa Anita Handicap. He suffered his first defeat of the season in April, but that second to City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap was a bang-up performance. He would meet that one again in the Gold Cup, and at 10 furlongs, it proved no contest. In the early race for the Horse of the Year, only Justify is ahead of Accelerate in my book.
This performance Saturday in the Grade 1 feature, where he gave the field weight and came flashing off the rail, was likely his best yet. ZATT's Star of the Week is ... Accelerate!
Heart to Heart in search of another Grade 1
It used to be Belmont Park's Met Mile which was the star attraction of Memorial Day's racing menu. Moved to Belmont Stakes day, we now look to the other coast for the race of the holiday. Monday's Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita is led by the likable Heart to Heart.
Adorned with a heart shaped blaze, it took plenty of time for the consistent seven-year-old to finally earn his initial Grade 1 victory, but when he did, he seemed to enjoy the feeling. A winner of 14 out of 28 career races on the grass, the son of English Channel broke through on February 10 of this year when he gamely held on to the win in the Gulfstream Park Turf. A Grade 1 winner for the first time, he wasted no time in adding a second with a more routine victory last time in the Maker’s 46 Mile at Keeneland.
Florida, Kentucky, and now California, the well traveled Heart to Heart will take another shot in a race he almost wired last year. The Brian Lynch trained star will have no easy assignment in the Shoemaker Mile. He will have to deal with Om early on, and then hold off the rally of Bowies Hero, who has been the best turf miler on the West Coast this year, if he wants to win his third straight Grade 1 race. Sometimes the best things in life are worth waiting for.