Kentucky Oaks winner could be running in the Rachel Alexandra
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It was not hard to see who the powers that be believe is the filly to beat in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks. Unique Bella was made an overwhelming favorite for the only future wager, which begins tomorrow. While I do believe she's the best three-year-old filly out there, it got me thinking about the wager, and the likelihood of her winning the Oaks on May 5. If she is in the race, she has a great shot of winning, but is that enough to place any money at all on her now, more than two months out, at the 8-5 odds she is listed at on the morning line? Not for me, it isn't.
She could miss the race due to a setback, or her connections could decide that the Kentucky Derby is where they'd rather be. With that in mind, I see many better options, considering the odds, in this weekend's Kentucky Oaks Future Wager. A few of these "better options" can be seen running Saturday at Fair Grounds in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Let's take a look at this excellent prep for the Oaks, in order of preference ...
2) Farrell (5-2) - The regally bred homebred of Coffeepot Stables has really put things together in her last two starts. She wired the Grade 2 Golden Rod for fun to end her juvenile season, and then came back for a decisive victory in the Silverbulletday Stakes locally. In that one, she was content to sit in second and wait to make her move. That tractability should serve her well moving forward, beginning with Saturday. With a little more speed in this, she should be able to sit a good stalking trip until she's ready to pounce at the head of the lane. The stakes and the competition are only raised this time around, but I believe the daughter of Malibu Moon to be good enough, and sharp enough to take home her third straight stakes victory. My Top Pick
5) Valadorna (2-1) - This daughter of Curlin has done absolutely nothing wrong since debuting for Stonestreet Stables last September. A late runner, she can be at the mercy of the pace in front of her. Proof of that is twice coming up short of getting there in time to win, but she has closed strongly in all four outings, including a very good second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Her return to the races, an optional claiming win at Fair Grounds on January 27, was not flashy, but was well timed, as she was confidently handled by Julien Leparoux. She might need to step it up just a bit from that performance, but there is good reason to believe that she will do just that in her second start of the season. A fast early pace should only help her chances, but the 1 1/16-miles of Saturday might be ultimately shorter than her best. The Top Rival
3) Shane's Girlfriend (3-1) - On the surface, it may look like she got smoked last time by Unique Bella, and she did, but at least she was out there part of a fast pace, and trying to win it. Back at two turns, she will find easier fractions in this one. It remains to be seen what she will do when Farrell looks her in the eye on Saturday, but looking at her form; two impressive wins, and then a meeting with Unique Bella, you could certainly come to the conclusion that she is in with a shot. She has been working well for trainer Doug O'Neill for her return to Louisiana, and might just try to take this wire-to-wire. Merits Respect
1) Untapped (9-2) - Bet down as the clear second choice in the Silverbulletday, she came up largely empty that afternoon. Was it the mud? Was it the level of competition? My guess is that it might have been a combination of both, but off her previous two wins, the full sister of Untappable deserves at least another shot. I don't like her enough to play her at the 9-2 morning line odds, but a much better effort than last time would be no surprise. Looks to Rebound
4) Majestic Quality (20-1) - Yes, she is still a maiden after seven starts, but I like what I see from her most recent efforts on the dirt. She was coming close against some pretty good fillies, and in the case of the last one, in solid time. She deserves to be a longshot, but with her closing style, and the fact that she has kept good company in many of those races, I think you could do worse than take a flyer on her to hit the board. Desormeaux Bomber
6) Wicked Lick (10-1) - Another who cannot be completely discounted, her last effort, in which she rallied for second in the Silverbulletday, is enough to give her hope in here. After beginning on turf, she has been on the improve on dirt. Not sure she is good enough to handle these, but another move forward makes her interesting. On The Improve
7) Gris Gris (12-1) - The bargain $32,000 yearling purchase ran a career best last time when she just missed holding on for second in the Silverbulletday. Perhaps she liked the mud, or maybe she is on the improve for trainer, Bernie Flint, but still it looked like the winner had her number when she wanted. With more speed in here, I think her task only gets tougher. Adds to the Pace
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