Zipse: The 41-year curse of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is unquestionably America’s most important race for 2-year-olds. As far as being a predictor of future success, however, its winners have bombed often at the box office the following season.

Highlighting its significance to the 2-year-old calendar, in the 41-year history of the Breeders’ Cup, the Juvenile winner has been awarded the Eclipse Award as the champion 2-year-old male 33 times, a robust 80%.

The only horses in the era able to win a season-ending championship without having won at the Breeders’ Cup were the salty group of Forty Niner, Easy Goer, Dehere, Maria’s Mon, Declan’s Moon, Lookin At Lucky, Shared Belief and American Pharoah. More than half of these eight champions went on to big things after their 2-year-old seasons, but the same cannot be said for the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

It is well documented that winning both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby has been a very difficult feat. So far Street Sense and Nyquist are the only two to complete the double.

You may be surprised to learn, however, that coming back to win again at the Breeders’ Cup has thus far proven to be unattainable. Not one of the first 41 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ever has returned to win another race at the world championships.

That streak, or perhaps curse is a more apropos description, will be put to the test Nov. 1 at Del Mar. The last two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Fierceness and Citizen Bull, return to Del Mar looking to make history. Although neither is likely to be favored, Fierceness in the Classic and Citizen Bull in the Dirt Mile are viable contenders to put an end to the curse.

Looking at the race’s history, many winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile came back to do very little or even nothing after their noteworthy victory.

Others found success after the Juvenile but never got another try in the Breeders’ Cup. Nyquist went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Timber Country the Preakness, but neither classic winner returned to the Breeders’ Cup after winning the Juvenile.

Brocco, Unbridled’s Song, Classic Empire, Good Magic and Forte were Grade 1 winners at 3 who also never made it back for a second attempt at the world championships.

In fact, only 12 of the 41 winners of the Juvenile ever returned to run again in the Breeders’ Cup. Of that dozen, Macho Uno, twice in the Classic, and Fly So Free, once in the Classic and once in the Sprint, were the only two to run in the Breeders’ Cup a second and third time, but neither was able to finish in the top three in any attempt as long shots.

The other 10 included several horses still very highly thought of when they returned to the Breeders’ Cup. On six occasions they returned to the championships as a favorite.

Surprisingly, two of them were the betting choice on the grass in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but neither Arazi in 1991 nor Favorite Trick in 1997 had much left for the stretch drive, and they finished 11th and 8th, respectively.

The other four Juvenile winners to come back as a favorite in the Breeders’ Cup all did it as 3-year-olds, and all ran in the Classic.

Chief’s Crown was the very first winner of any Breeders’ Cup race, and he won convincingly in the 1984 Juvenile. Trained by Roger Laurin, the champion son of Danzig came back to be a strong sophomore. He won four Grade 1 races at 3, but he was the beaten favorite in not only the Classic, where he ran fourth behind Proud Truth, but is the only horse in history to lose as the betting choice in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

Next came Street Sense, who ran away with the 2006 edition of the Juvenile by 10 lengths for trainer Carl Nafzger. He returned to the site of his championship-winning romp six months later to win easily in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The Breeders’ Cup Classic was not to be, however, as he struggled home fourth over the sloppy Monmouth Park track and well behind his excellent rival Curlin as the 5-2 betting choice.

More recently there was Essential Quality, who looked to have a real shot to end the drought as the 9-5 favorite in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He was a champion at both 2 and 3 and the winner as a heavy favorite in both the Belmont and Travers (G1), but the Brad Cox trainee had no answer for the speed of Knicks Go and checked in a non-threatening third at Del Mar. 

The last horse to come back as a favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic one year after winning America’s most important 2-year-old race was Fierceness. A brave second to Sierra Leone as the 5-2 betting choice in 2024, his result and performance were the best of any returning winner of the Juvenile.

Now a mature 4-year-old, Fierceness is a top contender once again for trainer Todd Pletcher but will face an absolutely loaded Classic field led by streaking Sovereignty.

Citizen Bull, meanwhile, will have past Breeders’ Cup winners White Abarrio and Full Serrano as well as a Kentucky Derby winner in Mystik Dan among others to deal with in the Dirt Mile. 

Will this finally be the year we put an end to the curse of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?

History is against them, but both Fierceness and Citizen Bull come into their respective tests off sharp stakes victories over the Del Mar track in their last race. A curse is never easily broken, but both colts are in with a chance in the 42nd edition of the Breeders’ Cup.