The Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby Do Not Mix
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Zipse’s
Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 20
There is no doubt that Keeneland’s
impressive racing schedule is highlighted by the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes. The
Grade 1 affair is simply overflowing with tradition. In the past 87 years, the
race has produced more than 20 winners of the Kentucky Derby, and over the past
thirty years, no race has produced more starters in the run for the roses. It
has always been a key prep for what happens on the first Saturday in May. Yet
lately I have the distinct impression that the prestigious race no longer has
anything to do with who will win the Kentucky Derby.
Gone are
the days when year after year the Blue Grass produced strong contenders for the
Derby. From 1959 to 1979, the winner of Keeneland’s big race went on to win under
the Twin Spires a whopping eight times. Growing up I watched horses like Riva
Ridge, Alydar, and Spectacular Bid win the Blue Grass. For now at least those
days seem long gone.
It’s now
been 20 years since the last horse, Strike the Gold, won both the Blue Grass
and the Derby. Worse yet, when Keeneland got rid of the dirt and switched to
the Polytrack surface, it seems so went the standing of the Blue Grass as a
legitimate prep for the Kentucky Derby.
I now
consider it extremely unlikely that a horse can win on the Keeneland strip,
which is so very different than that of Churchill’s, and then three weeks later
repeat the success in the Derby. In fact, since the transition to Polytrack,
the winner of the Blue Grass has finished 11th, 20th, 10th,
and 8th in the Derby. Clearly success in the Blue Grass is no longer
a strong recommendation for your chances in the Derby.
Don’t get me
wrong, I still enjoy the race, and The 2011 Blue Grass provided a thrilling
finish as Brilliant Speed got up in the shadow of the wire to edge Twinspired,
and King Congie. Kudos to the victor, winning it will likely be a career
highlight for Brilliant Speed. Yesterday’s edition was also a fun race to
watch, but as for the Kentucky Derby, I will look elsewhere than the trio of
two turf horses and a synthetic specialist.
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