Zipse: Arkansas Derby is the right choice for Secret Oath

It should come as no surprise that the filly Secret Oath will take on the boys in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby on April 2. After all, her legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas has been down this road many times before.

It’s been some years, but talented fillies Althea, Winning Colors and Serena's Song all won important Kentucky Derby prep races for the Hall of Fame trainer. In fact, the 86-year-old earned his first of four Kentucky Derby victories with Winning Colors.

A winner of 14 Triple Crown races, Lukas has never been afraid to run his top females against the males. His great mare Lady’s Secret beat the boys in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga, which helped her secure the 1986 Horse of the Year title.

Now he has Secret Oath, and she certainly looks ready to challenge the males in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. The Briland Farm homebred daughter of Arrogate, out of the three-time Oaklawn Park stakes winner and grade 1-placed Quiet American mare Absinthe Minded, is on a roll.

She is riding an impressive three-race win streak, which began on New Year’s Eve when she dominated an allowance field by better than eight lengths while going a flat mile. The performance earned one of the highest speed figures for either gender among 2-year-olds in 2021.

Secret Oath followed that up in January’s 1 1/16-mile Martha Washington, where she rolled to a 7 1/4-length win, and then last month in the Honeybee (G3) with a dominant 7 1/2-length victory. After a sharp 4-furlong workout earlier this week, the reasons to try her in the Arkansas Derby are too numerous to ignore.

The first reason is the qualifying points. She already has earned enough to get into the Kentucky Oaks. With 60 points, she is the current leader and will have enough to qualify for the big filly race no matter what happens in the next set of preps.

As for the Kentucky Derby, though, she will not have enough points to run on May 7 unless she gets her first qualifying points in the final prep. With a scale of 100-40-20-10 to the top four finishers in the Arkansas Derby, a first- or second-place finish likely would be enough to get her into the Run for the Roses.

Next you have the track. What better place than Oaklawn to make her first start against males?

Each of Secret Oath's three consecutive commanding victories have come over the Hot Springs, Ark., oval. Clearly, she likes the racing surface and surroundings. At 1 1/8 miles, the Arkansas Derby will be her longest race yet, but she has given no reason to believe that the extra half-furlong will not be a welcome addition.

Then there is the competition. The Arkansas Derby does not look to be looming as one of the strongest preps for the Kentucky Derby. The biggest name males look to be pointing for the Louisiana Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1), Blue Grass (G1), Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), so the signature race at Oaklawn Park looks to be very winnable for the filly.

In fact, when she won the Honeybee on Feb. 26 with a final time of 1:44.74, the $1 million Rebel (G2) was run significantly slower the same afternoon. In a race with many of the males that she will be facing in the Arkansas Derby, long-shot winner Un Ojo required about a second more to navigate the same 1 1/16-mile distance.

There is also the money and prestige of the Arkansas Derby to consider. The $600,000 Fantasy (G3) for fillies on the same afternoon would be a nice race to win, but it falls $650,000 short of its Grade 1 male counterpart. And by the way, no filly has won the big race since the Lukas-trained Althea rolled Gate Dancer and the rest 38 years ago.

Then you also have the test that the Arkansas Derby would give her. Clearly, she has not been challenged in beating fillies by a combined 23 lengths in her last three starts. Well timed for either the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks at five weeks out, it would give her connections a good barometer as to which race at Churchill Downs she should be enter.

And finally, you have Lukas. No longer the dominant trainer that he once was, you never know when his last big horse will come. Wouldn’t it be fun to see the legend in the Derby with a real chance one more time, and with a filly at that?

Of course, if Secret Oath is to become the first filly since Devil May Care in 2010 to run in the Kentucky Derby, she will need to earn the right. This year’s Arkansas Derby is the perfect place to do it.