The 2015 Woodward Preview: Liam’s Map the one to beat

In a seven year stretch from 1974 through 1980, the Woodward was won by Forego (four times), Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid. There may be no all-time titans of the turf like that in Saturday’s Grade 1 renewal, but once again, the prestigious race has attracted a solid cast of characters to Saratoga. The 1 1/8-mile test, for 3-year-olds and up, will be the highlight for a closing/holiday weekend at the Spa. Here’s my analysis of the field, from the rail out …

1. Wicked Strong - Last year’s Jim Dandy winner has not run a bad race yet this year. On the other hand, he hasn’t really run a good one either. That may be a little harsh, but it is all relative, and based off his excellent season of 2014, it is fair to say that more was expected from the Centennial Farms runner this year. This spot looks a little easier than his last two dirt races, but still, only an improvement off each of his first four races of this season would make him a legitimate threat to turn the tables on Liam’s Map on Saturday.

2. Liam’s Map - Saying anything other than Liam’s Map ran his eyeballs out in the Grade 1 Whitney last month would be selling the performance short. The four-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song did everything but win. It took a superequine late surge by Honor Code to run down this one, after he had dominated the race from the get go, and through testing fractions. The Todd Pletcher trained gray is fast, talented, and is coming off a career best. Even better yet, there still may be room for improvement, as that huge Whitney effort was only his sixth lifetime race. I’m not suggesting that he will run better on Saturday than he did on the Whitney, but a similar performance should be enough. I also question whether anyone in here has the early speed to scare him early, and I’m not going out on a limb by saying he is clearly the one to beat in this year’s Woodward. 3. Commanding Curve - It’s hard to be overly excited about the chances of the  late running Kentucky Derby runner-up of last spring. He hasn’t finished in the money in a stakes race since. He did win a solid allowance race two starts back at Churchill Downs, and his trainer Dallas Stewart has had some live horses at Saratoga of late, but still, he looks to be a little overmatched in here.

4. Bay of Plenty - The beneficiary of an ideal race set-up in the recent Alydar, Bay of Plenty finally lived up to his potential with an authoritative victory, which was his first in stakes company. With virtually no chance of that type of trip materializing for him on Saturday, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee will likely be up against it, at least for the top prize, as he attempts to go from a listed stakes victor, to a Grade 1 winner in consecutive starts.

5. Mylute - A pair of very solid performances in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness back in 2013 have been followed by a rather uninspired racing career since. Having said that, the son of Midnight Lute did seem to wake up a bit last time when he rallied to be a solid second behind the loose on the lead Bay of Plenty in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. He hasn’t proven himself against this type of competition of late, but if the Liam’s Map pressers get a little tired down the lane, this is one of the horses who could take advantage and grab a share.

6. Coach Inge - Like the one just below him, this Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher runner has not started since a bang-up performance in the July 4 Suburban. After a demanding pace, he hung around longer than he was expected to in the Belmont stretch. It was a solid follow-up to a similarly game performance to win the Brooklyn. He doesn’t have the natural speed of his stablemate, Liam’s Map, so if he is to keep up his steady ascent, he will need to make his move on the far turn. I like a few others better on Saturday, but he has certainly earned my respect in the last few.

7. Effinex - Once the least preferred of the nice trio of Jimmy Jerkens trained four-year-old males, Effinex has become the cream of the crop this year. The improving son of the 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft has come through with a pair of inspired victories of late, sandwiched around an inexplicably poor performance in the twelve furlong Brooklyn. First he bested Red Rifle and Wicked Strong in the Grade 3 Excelsior, and then he outdueled Tonalist to the wire in the Grade 2 Suburban. He figures to get a good trip behind the speed in here, and while both of his recent wins came at ten furlongs, the nine furlong trip of the Woodward should be equally to his liking. If the favorite falters at all, this is the most likely one to be there to pick up the pieces.

8. Protonico - Scratched from the Monmouth Cup just moments before the race on Haskell Day out of concern for the horse’s well being, I have been assured by the connections that Protonico came out of that ordeal none the worse for wear. It’s now been four months since his last race, but when last seen, the son of Giant’s Causeway had strung together a pair of very solid wins in Kentucky, including a stirring victory over Noble Bird in the Alysheba at Churchill Downs. If able to pick up right where he left off, he might be the most interesting of the horses tasked with chasing Liam’s Map early. It seems a daunting task, but he is a quality nine furlong horse.