Tampa Bay Derby 2017: Odds and Analysis

No McCraken, no Classic Empire, no problem. Without the biggest names, who were unable to make the track's signature race due to physical setbacks, the Tampa Bay Derby has still managed to attract an interesting field of 2017 Kentucky Derby hopefuls. While Tapwrit will likely take plenty of money off his fast finish behind McCraken in the Sam F. Davis, Saturday's Grade 2 test is full of horses who look capable of stepping up to win. With 50 points available to the winner, the horse who does prove best in the 1 1/16-mile feature will stamp their ticket to Louisville. Without further ado, let's look at the ten-horse field with my analysis and projected odds...

4) No Dozing (8-1) - I will be going out on a limb by picking this son of Union Rags in the top spot after his dull effort last time, but that is how you win some money. Not sure why he threw in the clunker, but I did see enough at two for me to believe that it was not the real No Dozing. I know the Remsen was not a key race by any means, but I liked all four of his races at two. Perhaps second time over the track will help, and he has been working very well over the surface for trainer Arnaud Delacour. He also should see a strong early pace in here which should give him every chance to uncork his rally. Upset on the Bounce Back

5) Tapwrit (9-5) - It's hard not to like how he finished the Sam F. Davis, after getting off the rail for clear sailing in mid-stretch. The $1.2 million yearling could be putting it all together, and off that race he merits top billing in here. One of two from the Todd Pletcher barn, he has improved with each and every race. I'd be careful about betting him at too low of odds, though, as the regally bred son of Tapit has not yet proven he can win a race like this.  Big Effort in Last

9) Wild Shot (6-1) - Looked to be making a strong move early in the stretch of the Sam F. Davis, but then the Rusty Arnold runner could not sustain over the final eighth of a mile. Was it a race he needed, or a sign that he will be better at shorter distances. It could be a combination of both, but I am willing to include on my tickets, with a strong guess that he improves a bit second time out. Improvement Expected

6) Beasley (5-1) - Your feelings on Beasley in this race likely correlate with just how good you think Battalion Runner is. I know that one has plenty of talent, but I am not sure if I am ready to annoint him a Florida Derby winner just yet. In their meeting, Beasley proved very game, but also second best. It was only his third outing, so improvement could still be in the cards. He adds to the early pace, which may not help his cause. Still, with a good trip, he could be very dangerous. Could Be This Good

8) State of Honor (6-1) - This Canadian-bred son of To Honor and Serve battled it out with Sonic Mule two starts back, and came up just short. He then rebounded with a very good effort in the local prep. He's actually hard to separate from the horse just below him, but I give him the slight edge based on this two-turn and Tampa experience. Game in the Davis

7) Sonic Mule (5-1) - You could say he is stubborn as a mule on the lead, and he also has more stakes experience than any horse in the field. While the respect has been earned, he seems to have proven to be just a cut below the best of this crop. On the other hand, there may be no world beaters in this one, which could mean he could get very brave down the lane. At the very least, he will make his presence felt early, but I do like others better. Consistent and Speedy

1) Tale of Silence (20-1) - We've seen these types from Tagg and Fipke surprise before, so with that in mind, I am expecting improvement as he gets back to a route of ground. He has run against several good horses in his career, but still, there is just not enough in his recent form to get overly optimistic. Late Bloomer Potential

2) The Money Monster (12-1) - They say to always beware of the undefeated horse, but it is hard to know how his first two wins, a maiden at Gulfstream Park West, and the Pasco Stakes at Tampa, will translate against this tough bunch. He also needs to prove it around two-turns. It seems like a tough spot. Unbeaten but Stepping Up

3) Basha (20-1) - The son of Uncle Mo has not run a bad race in four tries, so winning this is not out of the question. Having said that, he has not got the job done in his first two stakes attempts, and this one is a clear step up in class from those. He would need to improve at Tampa to be in the picture late on Saturday. Needs A Move Forward

10) Zion Valley (99-1) - Well beaten in a maiden claimer last time, I cannot imagine why he is in this. Does Not Belong