Super Saturday - Belmont’s Fall Spectacular
New York does not host a Breeders' Cup these days, but with Belmont Stakes Day in June, and autumn’s Super Saturday, they still boast two of the best days in American racing. Five Grade 1 races will be run on the expansive course on Saturday, and a sixth stakes race on the card, has all the quality to be one. Without further ado, let’s jump right into my thoughts on each of the six stakes that comprise Super Saturday at Belmont Park.
The Grade 1 Beldame (Race 5) - As a handicapper, I want to try to beat Stopchargingmaria in her first foray against older fillies and mares in the Beldame. The problem is, for every one reason I can find to like one of the six older horses in the Beldame field, I can find several more why I don’t like their chances to stop the Grade 1 run that the Mike Repole sophomore is on. Of the rest, I guess Fiftyshadesofhay is the one that most interests me, but at 1-for-6 this year, you could see why I am not full of confidence in the daughter of Pulpit. That brings me back to Stopchargingmaria, who in my mind is no Untapable, but for today, I really like her chances to win a third consecutive Grade 1 race in New York.
The Grade 1 Flower Bowl (Race 7) - I think Stephanie’s Kitten is the best horse in the race, and with the rain of Thursday, it looks like the Ramsey homebred will get the cut in the ground that she favors. That should prove a strong combination on Saturday. After needing a couple of races to work back to her best after a long layoff, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy has run back-to-back big races, when a fast closing runner-up in both the Diana and the Beverly D. She should only need to repeat those efforts to get the job done in the Flower Bowl, against a solid field, but one with no other standouts.
The Grade 1 Vosburgh (Race 8) - Palace is one of three horses to streak into Super Saturday looking for a third consecutive Grade 1 victory. In winning the big sprints of Saratoga in impressive fashion, the Linda Rice former claimer figures to be heavily favored in the Vosburgh. Add in all the speed that figures to set blistering fractions, and it's easy to see Palace winning another one. All that speed could be of even more benefit to a horse with significantly higher odds, as well, though. Coup de Grace lacked racing room at a key moment of the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, and with a potential pace collapse today, should be flying late. Palace is obviously a deserving favorite, but I’m taking the Larry Jones trained three-year-old to spring the surprise.
The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Race 9) - In only two races, Main Sequence has forged his way to the top of the heap of turf distance runners in the United States. With just enough speed on the inside in Twilight Eclipse and Imagining, I see no reason why he should not be able to uncoil his impressive late kick again and win his third consecutive Grade 1 stakes race under Rajiv Maragh. Having said that, there is plenty of competition in this Turf Classic, not the least of which is the Ramsey/Brown entry of Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution. On their best, either half of the entry has the ability to win this. If you are looking for some value, Hangover Kid has never been better, and despite his good form could be largely ignored by the bettors.
The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup (Race 10) - Yes, the Travers trio of V.E. Day, Wicked Strong, and Tonalist all look tough, but there is a reason that three-year-olds have won only five of the 20 editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup … It is not easy. For me, the key race for the Jockey Club Gold Cup is not the Travers, but rather the Suburban. Run a few months earlier at the same distance, and over the same track, Zivo and Moreno both ran huge to finish 1-2 that day. The former fires every time, clearly loves to win, and should be finishing strongly as always. As good as Zivo was to win the Suburban, Moreno’s race was equally big. The gelding proved his class at Saratoga, but before that he did all the dirty work in the 10 furlong Suburban only to be thwarted by Zivo coming up a wide open rail. More proof of his 1 ¼ prowess can be seen in last year’s near miss in the Travers. Moreno is a full grown man, and is my top pick today. The good news is both Moreno and Zivo should offer value in the Gold Cup, as I expect the bettors to favor the glamour of the youngsters.
It's not a Grade 1, but this Grade 2 Kelso (Race 4) field might as well be - Itsmyluckyday is the class of the race, and in fact, is in the running to be the top older dirt male in America. He more than held his own in two clashes with Moreno in the Whitney and Woodward, and now drops down to the one-turn mile of the Kelso. It’s a distance he’s handled well in the past, and Saturday should be no different. While competition like Golden Ticket and Bradester represent very tough milers, I cannot go against the son of Lawyer Ron, who is not only consistent, but seems to have taken things up to a new level of late.
There you have it; they don’t call it Super Saturday for nothing … I am going to enjoy Belmont’s Grade 1 day. I hope you do the same.