Suburban Handicap 2017: Odds and Analysis

Is Shaman Ghost one of the best horses in America? The good looking five-year-old son of Ghostzapper will try to move another step in that direction when he takes on five other older males in the $750,000 Suburban Handicap, Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/4 mile, Grade 2 affair is the fourth of five consecutive graded stakes races carded on the special Stars and Stripes card. Once the race for one of the great Dr. Fager and Damascus showdowns, the Suburban continues to be a key mid-season race at the classic American distance of ten furlongs. Let's take a look at the compact field in order of preference, including my projected odds.

2) Matt King Coal (5-1) - Speed is always dangerous, especially when it is speed of one. That's exactly what this talented son of Cool Coal Man has found in the historic Suburban. Ever improving for Lady Sheila Stable and trainer, Linda Rice, the four-year-old colt has only previously had a few attempts in graded stakes racing, while competitive in both the 2016 Wood Memorial and April's Charles Town Classic. In neither was he able to maintain his advantage down the stretch. Coming off a career best performance while easily winning the Mountainview Stakes at Penn National in track record time, he now faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of Shaman Ghost. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. controlling the pace up front, look for him to be more than a handful down the lane. Lone Speed for the Upset

6) Shaman Ghost (4-5) - There can be little doubt that Shaman Ghost is on a short list of the best dirt horses in the country. Wins in the Woodward, Santa Anita Handicap, and Pimlico Special, not to mention, a fine second behind Arrogate in the Pegasus World Cup, are proof enough of that, but he is not immune from race set-up. Much like was the case with Dolphus, who gave him everything he wanted in the Pimlico Special, the Jimmy Jerkens runner needs to chase down quality speed, while giving weight. This time, there is even less potential for early pressure to the pace setter, and in my opinion, an even more talented horse to chase. He certainly could win another, but at the odds, I think this is a good spot to try to beat him. The Deserving Favorite

1) Keen Ice (6-1) - Thank goodness for his memorable win over American Pharoah and Frosted in the 2015 Travers. Otherwise this son of Curlin would have zero wins in the last three seasons. Still, he usually cashes a check with his ability to pass horses in the stretch. Freshened since a disappointing effort in Dubai, he shows two straight bullets for trainer Todd Pletcher. At a distance that suits, he likely will be passing horses down the lane once again. Along for a Share

3) Sunny Ridge (10-1) - With the emergence of Irish War Cry this year, this four-year-old gelded son of Holy Bull has become only the second best New Jersey-bred in the land. That's okay, he continues to run solid races, and now is just one good finish away from becoming a millionaire. Both previous efforts at Belmont Park are solid, including a second-place finish in his latest behind War Story in the Brooklyn. With just a touch of tactical speed, he might sit second early behind Matt King Coal, and if that one does not have his best, maybe he can strike to the lead coming out of the turn. Honest J-bred

5) Follow Me Crev (5-1) - After a winning streak more than a year ago, this Quality Road gelding went off the boil. He has come back good this year, though, with three straight in-the-money finishes in graded stakes racing at Santa Anita, although he failed to threaten the winner in any. If you believe that form carries over to New York for trainer, Vladimir Cerin, he certainly rates a chance in here, but I remain dubious that his result over the sandy surface at Belmont Park will be as good as Santa Anita. Decent California Form

4) Watershed (10-1) - Mike Smith picks up the mount on the Godolphin runner who has never been able to get over the hump in graded stakes racing in New York. He looked pretty good in winning the Ben Ali two starts back at Keeneland, but then laid an egg in the Pimlico Special. He seems like a horse with some talent, but one that never wants to dig deep against good horses. This race seems a little bit too tough for his taste. Likes Beating Lesser